Recent Submissions

  • Alaska's 2007 Economic Highlights - Mapping the Economic Frontier - First National Bank Alaska 2007 Annual Report

    Goldsmith, Oliver Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, 2008-01-14)
  • Tourism: An Overview of the Industry

    Holleman, Marybeth (Institute of Social and Economic Research, 1990)
  • Petroleum: An Overview of the Industry

    Holleman, Marybeth (Institute of Social and Economic Research, 1990)
  • Mining: An Overview of the Industry

    Holleman, Marybeth (Institute of Social and Economic Research, 1990)
  • Alaskan View of the Economics of Petroleum Development

    Tussing, Arlon (Institute of Social and Economic Research, 1990)
  • Alaska Fuel Prices: 1992-93 A Summary of Quarterly Survey Data

    Colt, Steve (Institute of Social and Economic Research, 1995-01)
  • Alaska Salmon Ranching: An Economic Review of the Alaska Salmon Hatchery Programme

    Knapp, Gunnar (Institute of Social and Economic Research, 1999)
    Beginning in the 1970s, at a time when wild salmon harvests were at historically low levels, the State of Alaska invested heavily in the establishment of salmon hatcheries for commercial salmon ranching. In 1995, more than 33 million salmon of hatchery origin were harvested in Alaska, mostly pink and chum salmon. This chapter review the experience of this Alaska salmon hatchery programme from and economic perspective, and suggests lessons of the programme for other sea ranching projects. The benefits of the programme have been reduced by a significant decline in salmon prices since the late 1980s. Commercial fishermen harvesting hatchery fish have benefited from the programme, but fishermen in other areas of Alaska may have been harmed to the extent that hatchery harvests helped depress prices. Many hatcheries are not viable without continuing state subsidies. The Alaska salmon hatchery programme is neither obviously an economic nor obviously an economic failure.
  • Endogenous On-Site Time in the Recreation Demand Model

    Berman, Matthew D.; Kim, Hong Jin (University of Wisconsin Press, 1999-11)
    Careful modeling of on-site time may substantially improve estimates of the benefits of recreational visits using the travel cost method, especially when on-site time in endogenous. This paper review the theory of endogenous on-site time, and shows how the theory may apply to the Random Utility Model (RUM). An empirical example of a two-level, nested-choice model of sport fishing in southcentral Alaska illustrates a discussion of the relative advantages of the different ways to specify endogenous onsite time. (JELQ26)
  • Oil Rents and Political Economy in Alaska

    Berman, Matthew D. (Institute of Social and Economic Research, 1999-10)
    Oil and gas development has played a central role in the economic and political history of Alaska. This paper analyzes the evolution of fiscal relations between the petroleum industry and the State of Alaska s both landowner of the major oil fields and sovereign in a federal system. the analysis of the fiscal regime focuses on three dimensions: the state's take, its "distance" of administrative relation, and its "immunity" to oilfield financial risk. The paper finds that the state's distance from the industry has diminished steadily in its land management policies and fiscal dispute resolution practices over the past two decades, moving from primarily arms-length transactions-- lease auctions and litigation-- to negotiated terms and settlements. The state's willingness to share oil development risks increased markedly along with the government take in the early years of North Slope oil production, but then declined as the industry matured. That paper then explores the extend to which major economic trends might explain the pattern of change in the change in the state's administrative distance and financial immunity. Over the past 30 years, the state accumulated large savings in a Permanent Fund and reserve accounts, gradually becoming less financially dependent on current oil revenues. Neither the oil-price shifts nor financial exigencies appear to explain the pattern of change in the state's distance and immunity. Instead, the pattern appears to be explained more by the progress of industry in gaining support and influence among elected officials. The proposed BP-ARCO merger tests the limits of the new regime of state-industry accommodation.
  • Sustainability of Arctic Communities: An Interdisciplinary Collaboration of Researchers and Local Knowledge Holders

    Kruse, Jack (Institute of Social and Economic Research, 1999-09-19)
    Just under four years ago, 23 researchers representing 8 natural and social science disciplines set out to examine how the combined effects of climate change, oil development, tourism, and government cutbacks might change the sustainability of Arctic villages in the range of the Porcupine Caribou Herd. In so doing, we stepped into the world of integrated assessment. We have been working with four communities: Aklavik, Fort McPherson, Old Crow, and Arctic Village. We have worked together to incorporate research and local knowledge-based understanding in a common tool - a synthesis model - to examine the sensitivity of relationships and assess levels of uncertainty. We are discussing with our partner communities possible futures, local policies, and the limitations of science and local knowledge to predict the future. Along the way, we have contributed to our disciplines by modeling vegetation changes, caribou population dynamics, local labor markets, mixed subsistence and cash economies, and oil field-caribou interactions. In many respects, we believe that the sustainability project is a model for a regional integrated assessment (IA). We attempted to build on solid, disciplinary science, and to develop simple, reduced form models that focus on only the relationships important to the finite set of questions we undertook to examine. We worked with stake holder groups directly to ensure the relevance of study questions, and we combined science and local knowledge. We focused on the value of assessments as a springboard for understanding alternative futures rather than trying to predict the future. While most IA's focus solely on climate change, we examine the effects of climate change in the context of other global changes that are important to Arctic residents. And, while most IA's focus on national and international abatement policies, we are researching local and regional policy options to mediate the effects of climate change and shape the impacts of other global changes to benefit Arctic residents. Our scale of analysis also allows us to explore ways to represent values in parametric terms without reducing them all to dollar terms. The high degree of interaction between disciplines and between researchers and community members provides a great incentive to work on developing ways to make relationships in our models more obvious. We can advance IA methods while addressing some of the most important issues facing Arctic communities. While we think that aspects of the Sustainability Project can serve as a model for integrated assessments, we also think that the lessons learned during the course of the project may be as valuable as its successes. We organized the project by discipline, and later learned that the most important relationships within a discipline are not necessarily the most important when integrating across disciplines. We constructed a synthesis model at the beginning of the project to promote integration, but found that researchers did not use the model because it was written with unfamiliar software. We were committed to focusing much of the project on discussions with communities rather than model building, by found ourselves working into the fourth year on modeling tasks. In this paper we report our successes and the lessons learned. We conclude that integrated assessment is an effective tool for promoting learning among researchers of different disciplines and between researchers and communities. IA is also useful for identifying major uncertainties and associated research needs.
  • Economic Projections for Alaska and the Southern Railbelt 1999-2025

    Goldsmith, Oliver Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, 1999-07)
  • An Assessment of Safety Belt Use in Alaska Summer 1998

    Hanna, Virgene (Institute of Social and Economic Research, 1999-03-03)
  • Assessing the Consequences of Climate Change for Alaska and the Bering Sea

    Knapp, Gunnar (Center for Global Change and Arctic System Research University of Alaska Fairbanks, 1998-10-30)
    Marine fisheries are very vulnerable to climate change. Most of the research to date on the relationship between climate change and fisheries focuses specifically on how climate change may affect marine ecosystems and in turn abundance and harvests of specific marine species. This paper focuses on the human effects-economic, social and political effects-of climate-driven changes in Alaska commercial fisheries, and what can be done to mitigate these effects. Alaska commercial fisheries are the basis of a major industry of economic significance not only to Alaska but also the nation. In 1995, the ex-vessel value (the value received by fishermen) of Alaska landings exceeded $1.4 billion, while the first wholesale value (the value after processing in Alaska) was almost $3.0 billion. Climate change may have significant effects on Alaska fisheries. Climate change is likely to reduce the abundance of some species while increasing the abundance of others, with resulting reductions or increases in commercial harvests. For some species, significant changes in harvests may occur rapidly. How managers respond to climate change may either amplify or smooth out the effects of climate change on harvests. For a given species, climate change may cause harvests to increase in some parts of Alaska and decline in other parts of Alaska. For most species, we can't predict accurately how harvests in a given area may change, or when changes may occur. The farther we look into the future, the greater our uncertainty about potential changes in harvests. The history of commercial fishing in Alaska and elsewhere offers numerous examples of the economic and social consequences of climate change. These may include: Changes in harvests. Changes in regulations due to effects of climate on other species. Changes in fishing and processing employment. Changes in harvesting and processing costs. Changes in Prices. Changes in market share. Changes in fishing and processing income and profits. Changes in income and employment in fisheries support activities. Changes in local and statewide tax revenues. "Multiplier" effects of changes in fishing-related income. Changes in boat, gear, permit and IFQ (individual fishing quota) values. Changes in fisheries participation. Social stresses. Political conflict. Changes in costs and opportunities due to changes in weather and ice conditions. Costs of retooling. It is reasonable to assume that climate change could halve or double average harvests of any given species. This suggest that climate change could decrease or increase the total ex-vessel and wholesale value of Alaska harvests of some species by hundreds of millions dollars annually. The effects of global supply on markets for Alaska fish further complicate the task of assessing the potential effects of climate change on the Alaska fishing industry. It is not sufficient to understand only how fish harvests may be affected in Alaska. To understand potential climate-driven changes in markets, we would also need to understand how climate change might affect harvests of competing species in other parts of the world. For some regions of Alaska the economic effects of climate change may be highly favorable, for other regions the effects may be highly unfavorable. The fact that many of the economic benefits of Alaska fisheries accrue to non-resident fishermen, processing workers, and processing plant owners reduces the extent to which effects of climate change will be experienced in Alaska. Many of these effects will occur in the Pacific Northwest region. Potential long-term changes that could affect the significance of climate change for Alaska fisheries include: Changes in fish prices. Changes in technologies for fish harvesting and utilization. Changes in fisheries management. Changes in Alaska and American society. Potential strategies to mitigate the effects of climate-driven changes in Alaska fisheries include increasing attention to long-term forecasting and planning, and incorporating mechanisms for adjusting to harvest changes in management and political institutions.
  • Gas Supplies to the Northeast Asian Market

    Tussing, Arlon (Institute of Social and Economic Research/ The University of Cambridge, 1998-07)
  • Viability of Natural - Gas Projects for Northeast Asia

    Tussing, Arlon; Van Vactor, Samuel A. (Institute of Social and Economic Research/ The University of Cambridge, 1998-07-13)
  • Potential Boom Taking Shape in Developing Northeast Asian Natural Gas Supply Network

    Tussing, Arlon (Institute of Social and Economic Research, 1998-07-06)
  • The Coming Natural-Gas Boom in Northeast Asia

    Tussing, Arlon (Institute of Social and Economic Research, 1998-06-22)
  • Northeast Asia: Outlook For Natural-Gas Sales and Independent Power Producers

    Tussing, Arlon; Ripple, Ronald (Institute of Social and Economic Research, 1998-06)
  • From Oil to Assets: Managing Alaska's New Wealth

    Goldsmith, Oliver Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, 1998-06)

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