• Alaska Community Fuel Use

      Saylor, Ben; Wilson, Meghan; Szymoniak, Nick; Fay, Ginny; Colt, Steve (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2008-10)
      The goal of this project was to estimate the amount of fuel used for space heating and electricity production by communities in Alaska. No comprehensive Alaska fuel use data exist at the community level. Community fuel consumption by type of fuel and end use is needed to estimate the potential economic benefits from demand- and supply-side investments in fuel use reduction projects. These investments include weatherization and housing stock improvements; improved lighting, appliance and space heating efficiencies; waste heat capture; electric interties, and alternative energy supply options such as wind and hydroelectric generation. Ultimately the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA) and others can use this information to rank and select a suite of projects that provide the largest gains in fuel reductions at the lowest long-term costs and the highest returns on investment over the life of the projects. Study communities consisted of Power Cost Equalization (PCE) eligible communities. Communities in the North Slope Borough were excluded because fuel subsidies offered by the borough result in different patterns of energy use by households.
    • Alaska Energy Statistics 1960-2008

      Fay, Ginny; Meléndez, Alejandra Villalobos; Saylor, Ben; Gerd, Sarah Christine (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2011-05)
      Prior to 1985, the federal Alaska Power Administration published the Alaska Electric Power Statistics. Then, the Alaska Energy Authority (formerly the Alaska Power Authority) began gathering statistical data and publishing this annual report. In 1988, the Alaska Electric Power Statistics report became a combined effort between the Alaska Systems Coordinating Council and the Alaska Energy Authority. Beginning in 1993, the report became a joint effort between the Alaska Systems Coordinating Council and the Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs, Division of Energy. After the 1995 report, no further reports were published until 2003 when a report was prepared by the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA), with funding provided by the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA), the Regulatory Commission of Alaska (RCA), and the Denali Commission. This twenty-third edition of the Alaska Electric Energy Statistics was prepared by the Institute of Social and Economic Research. Information on utility, industry, and military electricity capacity, generation, and other characteristics was gathered primarily from reports filed with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA) and made available on their website. This was supplemented by data collected by the Alaska Energy Authority through the Power Cost Equalization (PCE) program and a limited number of direct contacts with electric power producers in the state. This is a similar methodology used to develop information for the 2003 report.
    • Alaska Energy Statistics 1960-2010 Final Report

      Fay, Ginny; Meléndez, Alejandra Villalobos; Converse, Amber (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2012-06)
      Prior to 1985, the federal Alaska Power Administration published the Alaska Electric Power Statistics. Then, the Alaska Energy Authority (formerly the Alaska Power Authority) began gathering statistical data and publishing this annual report. In 1988, the Alaska Electric Power Statistics report became a combined effort between the Alaska Systems Coordinating Council and the Alaska Energy Authority. Beginning in 1993, the report became a joint effort between the Alaska Systems Coordinating Council and the Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs, Division of Energy. After the 1995 report, no further reports were published until 2003 when a report was prepared by the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA), with funding provided by the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA), the Regulatory Commission of Alaska (RCA), and the Denali Commission.The purpose of this report is to present electric power reference data for Alaska; it is not intended to provide detailed analysis of energy production, consumption or uses.
    • Alaska Energy Statistics 1960-2011 Final Report

      Fay, Ginny; Meléndez, Alejandra Villalobos; West, Corinna (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2013-12)
      This twenty-sixth edition of the Alaska Energy Statistics reconciles energy data from public sources and makes that data more easily available to the public and stakeholders. It primarily presents 2011 data on electricity produced by certified utilities in Alaska. It includes a brief introduction, highlights, and summary data tables. The first major section describes basic statistical indicators for Alaska utilities, and the second discusses renewable energy in Alaska. After that we look more broadly at the big picture of energy in Alaska, describing production and consumption of various energy sources. A series of appendixes defines terms, lists references, and describes data sources. This report presents data for the state and for the 11 Alaska Energy Authority energy regions. In an accompanying workbook, we also present data by U.S. census areas, Alaska Native corporation regions, and regions used in earlier Alaska Electric Energy Statistics reports.8 Unlike the preliminary version of this report, issued in fall 2012, this final report includes installed capacity data tables for 2011, as well as additional chapters on renewable energy and other Alaska energy information.
    • Alaska Energy Statistics 1960-2011 Preliminary Report

      Fay, Ginny; Meléndez, Alejandra Villalobos; West, Corinna (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2012-11)
      Prior to 1985, the federal Alaska Power Administration published the Alaska Electric Power Statistics. Then, the Alaska Energy Authority (formerly the Alaska Power Authority) began gathering statistical data and publishing this annual report. In 1988, the Alaska Electric Power Statistics report became a combined effort between the Alaska Systems Coordinating Council and the Alaska Energy Authority. Beginning in 1993, the report became a joint effort between the Alaska Systems Coordinating Council and the Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs, Division of Energy. After the 1995 report, no further reports were published until 2003 when a report was prepared by the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA), with funding provided by the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA), the Regulatory Commission of Alaska (RCA), and the Denali Commission. Beginning in 2008, Alaska Electric Energy Statistics updates have been prepared by ISER in partnership with AEA. The purpose of this report is to present electric power reference data for Alaska; it is not intended to provide detailed analysis of energy production, consumption or uses.
    • Alaska Energy Statistics 1960‐2009

      Fay, Ginny; Meléndez, Alejandra Villalobos; Converse, Amber (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2011-09)
      This report has had various publishers. Before 1985, the federal Alaska Power Administration published Alaska Electric Power Statistics. Then, the Alaska Energy Authority (formerly the Alaska Power Authority) began gathering statistical data and publishing this annual report. In 1988, the Alaska Electric Power Statistics report became a combined effort of the Alaska Systems Coordinating Council and the Alaska Energy Authority. Beginning in 1993, the report became a joint effort of the Alaska Systems Coordinating Council and the Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs, Division of Energy. After the 1995 report, no reports were issued until 2003, when the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at the University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA), published a report, with funding from the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA), the Regulatory Commission of Alaska (RCA), and the Denali Commission. ISER prepared this twenty‐fourth edition of the Alaska Electric Energy Statistics in collaboration with the Alaska Energy Authority. Unlike previous reports, data tables are presented solely in digital form in an MS Excel file. The workbook containing the data tables is available on the ISER website at http://iser.uaa.alaska.edu/Publications/AlaskaEnergyStatisticsCY2009Tables.xlsx) and the AEA website (http://www.akenergyauthority.org/).The data tables are presented in a dataset format for convenient use and manipulation. All data presented are identified by the geographic regions used in previous Alaska Electric Energy Statistics,1 as well as AEA energy regions, Alaska Native corporation regions, and census areas.
    • Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2009-2030

      Fay, Ginny; Saylor, Ben; Szymoniak, Nick (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2010-01-15)
    • Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2010-2030

      Fay, Ginny; Saylor, Ben (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2010-07-30)
      We generated Low, Medium, and High case fuel price projections for the years 2010-2030 for the following fuels: Incremental natural gas in Southcentral Alaska delivered to a utility-scale customer Incremental diesel delivered to a PCE community utility tank Incremental diesel delivered to a home in a PCE community Incremental home heating oil purchased in Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau, Kenai, Ketchikan, Palmer, and Wasilla This memorandum provides documentation of the assumptions and methods that we used. A companion Excel workbook contains the detailed projections
    • Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2011-2035

      Fay, Ginny; Meléndez, Alejandra Villalobos; Pathan, Sohrab (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2011-07-07)
      This and previous Alaska fuel price projections were developed for the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA) for the purpose of estimating the potential benefits and costs of developing renewable energy projects applied for through the Alaska Renewable Energy Fund program process. The projections are not price forecasts but a statistical estimation of potential future utility avoided fuel costs based on the relationships between historic utility fuel prices and crude oil and refinery prices reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). These statistically estimated relationships are used to project potential future fuel prices based on EIA’s Energy Outlook oil price forecasts. In addition to developing these low, medium and high fuel price projections, estimates of the social cost of carbon (previously included as estimates of potential carbon taxes), a premium for low sulfur fuels, and a price differential for home heating fuel are provided and are incorporated into the Renewable Energy Fund benefit-cost model for evaluating potential projects. The settings of these parameters are public policy considerations selected for project reviews by the AEA. The fuel price projections are limited in their applicability to the modeling of project benefits and costs and should not be considered fuel price forecasts.
    • Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2012-2035

      Fay, Ginny; Meléndez, Alejandra Villalobos; Pathan, Sohrab (2012-07)
      This and previous Alaska fuel price projections were developed for the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA) for the purpose of estimating the potential benefits and costs of renewable energy projects. Project developers submit applications to AEA for grants awarded under the Alaska Renewable Energy Fund program process. The fuel price projections are not price forecasts but a statistical estimation of potential future utility avoided fuel costs based on the relationships between historic utility fuel prices and crude oil and refinery prices reported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA). These statistically estimated relationships are used to project potential future fuel prices based on EIA’s published Annual Energy Outlook crude oil and natural gas price forecasts. In addition to developing these low, medium and high fuel price projections, estimates of the social cost of carbon (previously included as estimates of potential carbon taxes), and a price differential for home heating fuel are provided and are incorporated into the Renewable Energy Fund benefit-cost model for evaluating potential projects. Previously, a five cents premium for low sulfur fuels was added to the projections in anticipation of implementation of low sulfur fuel air quality requirements. However, the low sulfur fuel requirement was implemented in 2010; hence recent prices reflect the effects of the rule and a premium is no longer necessary. The fuel price projections are limited in their applicability to the modeling of project benefits and costs and should not be considered fuel price forecasts.
    • Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2013-2035

      Fay, Ginny; Meléndez, Alejandra Villalobos; Pathan, Sohrab; Armagost, Jeffrey (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2013-06-30)
      The Alaska Fuel Price Projections are developed for the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA) for the purpose of estimating the potential benefits and costs of renewable energy projects. Project developers submit applications to AEA for grants awarded under the Alaska Renewable Energy Fund (REF) program process. These fuel price projections are used to evaluate the economic feasibility of project applications; economic feasibility is only one of many factors of the project evaluation process. In this report we present the methodology for the seventh fuel prices projection. In addition to their use for the REF review, the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA) uses the projections for other economic research and energy project evaluations. Economists at ISER have completed six previous Alaska Fuel Price Projections since 2008 (all available at: http://www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu/). The fuel price projections fulfill an important need for price information and are used by many stakeholders in addition to AEA. As a result of their broad use among the public, we expanded what used to be cursory notes on methodology. Our intent is to provide more detailed information to the report’s readers and users of the fuel price projections.
    • Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2014-2040

      Fay, Ginny; Meléndez, Alejandra Villalobos (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2014-07)
      The Alaska Fuel Price Projections are developed annually for the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA) for the purpose of estimating the potential costs and benefits of renewable energy projects. Project developers submit applications to AEA for grants awarded under the Alaska Renewable Energy Fund (REF) program. These fuel price projections are used to evaluate the economic feasibility of project applications; economic feasibility is only one of many factors of the project evaluation process. Economists at the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA) have completed seven previous Alaska Fuel Price Projections since 2008 (all available at: http://www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu/). In this report we present the methodology for the most recent fuel prices projection. In addition to their use for the REF review, ISER researchers use the projections for other economic research and energy project evaluations. The fuel price projections also fulfill an important need for price information and are used by many stakeholders in addition to AEA. As a result of their broad use among the public, we expanded what used to be cursory notes on methodology. Our intent is to provide more detailed information to the report’s readers and users of the fuel price projections.
    • Alaska Justice Forum ; Vol. 8, No. 3 (Fall 1991)

      Read, Emily E.; Fay, Ginny; Bureau of Justice Statistics (Justice Center, University of Alaska Anchorage, 1991-09-01)
      The Fall 1991 issue of the Alaska Justice Forum presents results from a study of child support in Alaska, which found that Alaska has made significant progress in standardizing child support orders under Court Rule 90.3, but that proportional disparities in awards exist when examined by community, type of case and type of establishment procedure. The Bureau of Justice Statistics presents estimates of crime victimization experienced in American households from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS).
    • Alaska Renewable Energy Fund Grants: What works and lessons learned

      Fay, Ginny (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2012-01)
    • All-Alaska Rate Electric Power Pricing Structure

      Fay, Ginny; Meléndez, Alejandra Villalobos (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2012-03)
      Economists at the Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage were asked to research the potential options and impacts of establishing an All-Alaska Rate as an alternative to the current Power Cost Equalization (PCE) program funding formula. We were asked to provide a history of the PCE program and information on electricity rates and patterns of consumption across regions of Alaska. This report provides the results of this analysis. Alaska is unique in many ways, including its consumption and pricing of electricity. There are large regional differences in consumption and prices that result from proximity to different types and quantities of resources. Differences in remoteness and population size also influence costs. Urban areas in the southern Railbelt benefit from larger economies of scale and access to natural gas and hydroelectric resources; the majority of hydroelectric facilities are located in Southcentral and Southeast Alaska. Most communities in rural Alaska depend on volatile and high price fossil fuels for the generation of electricity. The Alaska statewide weighted average residential rate for electricity (17.6 cents per kilowatt (kWh) in CY2011) is higher than the U.S. average of 11.8 cents per kWh (U.S. EIA, 2012). Alaska now trails behind Hawaii (34.5 cents), New York (18.4 cents) and Connecticut (18.1 cents) based on ranking of average residential price per kWh. Hidden in the Alaska statewide average is considerable variation with some communities paying less than the national average and some paying considerably more.
    • Analysis of Alaska Transportation Sectors to Assess Energy Use and Impacts of Price Shocks and Climate Change Legislation

      Fay, Ginny; Schwörer, Tobias; Guettabi, Mouhcine; Armagost, Jeffrey (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2013-04)
      We analyzed the use of energy by Alaska’s transportation sectors to assess the impact of sudden fuel prices changes. We conducted three types of analysis: 1) Development of broad energy use statistics for each transportation sector, including total annual energy and fuel use, carbon emissions, fuel use per ton-mile and passenger-mile, and cost of fuel per ton-mile and passenger-mile. 2) Economic input-output analysis of air, rail, truck, and water transportation sectors. 3) Adjustment of input-output modeling to reflect sudden fuel price changes to estimate the potential impact on industry output and employment. Alaska air transportation used approximately 1.9 billion gallons of fuel annually; 961 million gallons were used for intra-state and exiting Alaska flights. Water transportation used 101.8 million gallons annually, approximately 84.3 million gallons for intra-state and exiting segments. Railroad and truck transportation used 5.1 and 8.8 million gallons annually, respectively. Simulated fuel price increases resulted in an estimated $456.8 million in value-added losses to the Alaska economy through the increase in cost of transportation services, as well as an equivalent loss in income to Alaska household of $26.8 million. A carbon emissions tax would have the greatest impact on the cost of air transportation services followed by water, trucking and rail.
    • Benefits of Alaska Native Corporations and the SBA 8(a) Program to Alaska Natives and Alaska

      Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage; Haley, Sharman; Fay, Ginny; Ainsworth, Joel; Angvik, Jane; Hill, Alexandra; Martin, Stephanie (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2009-07-07)
      Senator Begich’s office asked ISER for assistance assembling information to document the social and economic status of Alaska Natives and the benefits of the 8(a) program. His purpose is to brief Missouri Senator McCaskill and her committee which is reviewing the status of ANC contracts awarded under SBA’s 8(a) program. This review was triggered by a 2006 GAO report recommending increased SBA oversight to 8(a) contracting activity. Highlights of the GAO report are provided in Tab A.1; a letter dated May 15, 2009, from Senators Begich and Murkowski to Sentaor McCaskill, outlining their concerns is provided in Tab A.2. As the Congressional Research Service report (Tab A.3) explains, the Small Business Administration’s 8(a) program targeting socially and economically disadvantaged individuals was operating under executive authority from about 1970, and under statutory authority starting in 1978. A series of amendments from 1986 to 1992 recognized Alaska Native Corporations (ANCs) as socially and economically disadvantaged for purposes of program eligibility, exempted them from limitations on the number of qualifying subsidiaries, from some restrictions on size and minimum time in business, and from the ceiling on amounts for sole-source contracts. Between 1988 and 2005, the number of 8(a) qualified ANC subsidiaries grew from one to 154 subsidiaries owned by 49 ANCs. The dollar amount of 8(a) contracts to ANCs grew from $265 million in FY 2000 to $1.1 billion in 2004, approximately 80 percent of which was in sole-source contracts. (GAO Highlights, Tab A.1) The remainder of this briefing book is divided in three sections. Section 2 addresses changes in the social and economic status of Alaska Natives from 1970--the year before the enactment of the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act and the subsequent creation of the ANCs--to the present. ISER’s report on the “Status of Alaska Natives 2004” (Tab B.1) finds that despite really significant improvements in social and economic conditions among Alaska Natives, they still lag well behind other Alaskans in employment, income, education, health status and living conditions. A collection of more recent analyses updates the social and economic indicators to 2008. There were many concurrent changes throughout this dynamic period of Alaska’s history and we cannot attribute all the improvements to the ANCs, though it is clear that they play an important catalyst role. In the final part of section 2 we attempt to provide some historical context for understanding the role ANCs have played in improving the well-being of Alaska Natives. Section C. documents the growth in ANCs and their contributions to Alaska Native employment, income, social and cultural programs and wellbeing, and their major contributions to the Alaska economy and society overall. Section D. Looks specifically at the 8(a) program. Although there are a handful of 8(a) firms with large federal contracts, the majority are small, village-based corporations engaged in enterprise development in very challenging conditions. A collection of six case studies illustrate the barriers to business development these small firms face and the critical leverage that 8(a) contracting offers them.
    • Components of Alaska Fuel Costs: An Analysis of the Market Factors and Characteristics that Influence Rural Fuel Prices

      Szymoniak, Nick; Fay, Ginny; Meléndez, Alejandra Villalobos (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2010-02-17)
      Many Alaskans face extremely high, volatile fuel prices. Little is publicly known about the actual structure of Alaska’s rural fuel markets and what drives prices at the community level. The Alaska State Senate Finance Committee asked economists at the University of Alaska Anchorage, Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) to investigate rural Alaska fuel markets and identify policy options that could be considered for legislative action to reduce fuel prices. This study is both an update and an evolution of previous ISER Components of Fuel Costs studies.1 It does not include road-accessible communities.
    • Components of Delivered Fuel Prices in Alaska

      Wilson, Meghan; Saylor, Ben; Szymoniak, Nick; Colt, Steve; Fay, Ginny (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2008-06)
      This is a systematic analysis of components of delivered fuel prices in Alaska. Data for the analysis include limited publicly available Alaska fuel prices (fall 2007 prices), as well as information the authors gathered from extensive interviews with fuel retailers and transporters, communities, and agencies. We identify the individual components of delivered fuel costs—including world price of crude oil, refining costs, transportation costs, storage and distribution costs, taxes and financing costs—and investigate how these factors influence the final retail prices of home heating fuel and gasoline. Transportation, storage, and distribution costs appear to be the most variable factors driving the large retail fuel price differentials among Alaska communities. Therefore, we investigate how factors such as seasonal icing, the number of fuel transfers enroute to specific communities, local storage and delivery infrastructure, marine and river characteristics, and distance from refineries or fuel hubs influence fuel prices. We did an in-depth analysis of how those factors influence prices in ten case study communities around the state—Allakaket/Alatna, Angoon, Bethel, Chitina, False Pass, Fort Yukon, Lime Village, Mountain Village, Unalakleet, and Yakutat. Together, the quantitative data and information on Alaska fuel logistics provide a comprehensive analysis of Alaska’s fuel prices.
    • Cordova Psychrophiles Bio-Digester Benefit-Cost and Sensitivity Analysis

      Pathan, Sohrab; Meléndez, Alejandra Villalobos; Fay, Ginny (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2012-12)
      Cordova is located in southcentral part of Alaska, 150 miles southeast of Anchorage, and can be accessed only by boat or plane. The average winter temperature1 varies from 17⁰ F to 28⁰ F (-8⁰ C to -2⁰ C) and the average summer temperature varies from 49⁰ F to 63⁰ F (9⁰ C to 17⁰ C).2 To support Cordova’s ongoing energy independence efforts , the Denali Commission approved a science project for the Science Club students at Cordova High School using Emerging Energy Technology Funds to develop a bio-digester that uses psychrophiles, a cold climate bacteria, that can reproduce in very cold temperatures, as low as 19⁰ F (-7.5⁰ C).3 Use of psychrophiles in a bio-digester in Cordova is a new technology that aims to produce low cost biogas for Alaskans who live in extreme cold temperatures. The production of biogas varies significantly depending on ambient temperatures. The cold climate application of this technology is in its research and development (R&D) phase, which makes in-depth economic analysis challenging as there is little cost information and many parts for the application of the technology have to be custom build. This paper describes a preliminary economic analysis of the Cordova project. In order to provide a study at this early stage in technology development, the analysis was prepared using a combined benefit-cost and sensitivity analysis to show the impacts of variations in methane output, and diesel fuel and propane prices. For this preliminary analysis we compared the bio-digester technology against diesel and propane fuel alternatives.