• $1.5 Billion and Growing: Economic Contribution of Older Alaskans

      Goldsmith, Scott; Angvik, Jane (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2006)
      Nearly $1.5 billion a year flows into Alaska from a source that doesn’t depend on oil or fish or gold, isn’t influenced by world markets, and isn’t seasonal. That cash flow roughly equals what fishermen were paid in 2005 for their Alaska seafood harvests, or the value of zinc, gold, and other metals mined in Alaska in 2004. It’s close to what tourists spend here every summer. What’s the source? Retired Alaskans. The 52,000 retirees age 60 or older brought an estimated $1.46 billion into the state in 2004. About 75% is from Social Security and pensions. Most of the rest is spending by governments and private insurers for health-care costs of retired Alaskans. ISER estimates that spending by retirees supports about 11,700 jobs—or nearly 4% of Alaska’s wage and salary jobs. This summary reports ISER’s findings about the economic contributions of older Alaskans, describes who they are, and estimates how their numbers are likely to grow.
    • 2004 Alaska Construction Spending Forecast

      Goldsmith, Scott; Killorin, Mary (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2004)
      We estimate total construction spending in Alaska in 2004 will be $5.315 billion, about the same as last year. Private spending will be $3.250 billion, or 61 percent of the total. Public spending will contribute $2.065 billion, or 39 percent.
    • 2005 Alaska Construction Spending Forecast

      Goldsmith, Scott; Killorin, Mary (Associated General Contractors of Alaska: Construction Industry Progress Fund, 2005)
      Construction spending is one of the important contributors to overall economic activity in Alaska. It supports firms not only in the construction industry itself, but also construction activity “hidden” in other sectors of the economy such as oil and gas and mining. This is the second year we have prepared a forecast of construction spending, and our categories of spending are not exactly comparable to those last year. Consequently it is not possible to directly compare the forecasts by category between 2004 and 2005. Although we have not conducted a formal year-end review of construction spending in 2004, in the process of collecting information for 2005 we have determined that our projection for 2004 was robust.
    • 2006 Alaska's Construction Spending Forecast

      Goldsmith, Scott; Killorin, Mary (2005)
      Total construction spending in Alaska in 2006 will be $6.525 billion, an increase of 13% from a revised figure of $5.755 billion in 2005. This is the amount of money that will “hit the street” for construction during the year. Because of increases in the cost of materials during 2005, industry employment and other measures of activity will not expand as much as spending, but 2006 will be another very strong year for the construction industry with some sectors, most notably education, up sharply from 2005. Uncertainty in the forecast for 2006 comes from the likelihood that material prices will continue to be volatile due to strong demand. This may negatively impact some major projects, as was the case in 2005. For example the Alyeska pipeline reconfiguration project was originally scheduled for completion last year, but cost overruns (and possibly other factors) caused total spending to increase substantially and the estimated time for completion to be moved into 2006."
    • 2007 Alaska's Construction Spending Forecast

      Killorin, Mary; Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2007)
      Uncertainty in the forecast for 2007 comes from several sources. The decline in the crude oil price in recent months may cause some firms working in the oil patch to re-evaluate their capital budget decisions and slow their rate of investment in exploration and development. All sectors of the industry are continuing to experience rapid increases in construction material costs that will undoubtedly cause some projects to be canceled or postponed, as has been the case in the last several years.
    • 2008 Alaska's Construction Spending Forecast

      Killorin, Mary; Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2008)
      Total construction spending “on the street” in Alaska in 2008 will be $7.01 billion, down 2% from last year. Excluding the oil and gas sector—which accounts for 41% of the total—construction spending will be down for the second year in a row, falling 6% to $4.12 billion. Last year it declined 3%. Lower construction spending, combined with higher material and labor costs, will result in a modest reduction in the level of construction employment in 2008. Although this will be the second year of decline in construction employment, it remains well above the long-term trend. Construction costs continue to rise faster than the general rate of inflation—and that trend is expected to continue, further reducing the purchasing power of each construction dollar. Private-sector construction spending is projected to be $4.64 billion in 2008, an increase of 2% over 2007. Strong growth is expected in oil and gas, mining, utilities, and the other basic sectors.
    • 2019 Alaska's Construction Spending Forecast

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2/6/2019)
    • Accessing Permanent Fund Earnings to Reduce the Fiscal Gap

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2/1/2016)
      Presented to Alaska Senate State Affairs Committee on February 4, 2016
    • ACES vs MAPA (SB21): Revenues and Jobs

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 6/1/2014)
    • Alaska Demographic, Economic, and Social Trends

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2001)
      This presentation outlines key developments in Alaska's development and potential directions for future development based on demographic, economic and social trends. At statehood the economy was dominated by the federal government, but today, at least in the larger communities, it looks surprisingly like the rest of the US. Booms and busts have and continue to exert a strong influence on the economy, particularly on regional economies, in spite of this maturation. The Petroleum Cycle has been the single most important economic event since statehood. Oil with a market value of about $250 billion has been produced from the NS. Production peaked in the late 1980s and the price peaked at $60 (NS delivered to the lower 48) in the early 1980s. We have had our share of happy events ranging from high oil prices when production was high to a high flying stock market when we had a Permanent Fund to invest, to a powerful congressional delegation when Washington had $$ to distribute. Now that we look more like the rest of the US and economic growth has slowed, we can should take stock of where we are. There are a number of surprises.
    • Alaska Economic Database: Charting Four Decades of Change

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2000)
      This document contains data collated over four decades between 1961 and 1998. Data included in this document relate to employment, Alaska and state gross product, earnings, wages, salaries, labor market, price indices, and other economic indicators considered to be important at the time of collection.
    • Alaska Economic Forecast and the Permanent Fund

      Fried, Niel; Goldsmith, Scott; Guettabi, Mouhcine (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 1/9/2019)
    • Alaska Economic Indicators

      Goldsmith, Scott; Hill, Alexandra (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1991)
      Analysis of the economic indicators clearly shows the deceleration of the Alaska economy which has occurred in 1991. The influence of the oil spill cleanup effort is no longer a significant factor in determining the course of the economy, thus allowing the other economic drivers to reassert their influence. This report is made up primarily of tabulated and charted data with a short commentary regarding key economic indicators of employment, income, and 'miscellaneous' items such as building activity.
    • The Alaska Economy And The Challenge Ahead

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 11/1/2015)
    • The Alaska Economy And The Challenge Ahead

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 11/1/2015)
    • The Alaska Economy Report Card 2007 (Presentation)

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2007)
      This presentation was delivered to the State of Alaska House Resources Committee on October 25, 2007, and includes charts and graphical information as support to subjects related to the state of the Alaskan economy: • The Structure of the Economy—1/3 Rule • Growth Since 1980 • Looking Ahead • Resource Curse • A Non-Problem • The Many Alaska Economies • Population Bubbles
    • Alaska Electric Power Statistics (with Alaska Energy Balance) 1960-2001

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2003)
      Prior to 1985, the federal Alaska Power Administration published the Alaska Electric Power Statistics. Then, the Alaska Energy Authority (formerly the Alaska Power Authority) began gathering statistical data and publishing this annual report. In 1988, the Alaska Electric Power Statistics report became a combined effort between the Alaska Systems Coordinating Council and the Alaska Energy Authority. Beginning in 1993, the report became a joint effort between the Alaska Systems Coordinating Council and the Department of Community and Regional Affairs, Division of Energy. After the 1995 no further reports were published until this year. This twenty-second edition of the Alaska Electric Power Statistics has been prepared by the Institute of Social and Economic Research of the University of Alaska Anchorage with funding provided by the Alaska Energy Authority, the Regulatory Commission of Alaska, and the Denali Commission. The data is presented using the same regional definitions as in past reports, but since some utilities have operations that span more than a single region, their combined operations characteristics are also reported. In addition we present a breakdown of operations between the Railbelt utilities, the Power Cost Equalization utilities, and all other. Finally, an entirely new section has been added to the report that describes the production and consumption of all energy in the state.
    • Alaska Employment with and without MarkAir: Range of Potential Effects

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1995)
      This report calculates the potential range of employment impacts on the Alaska economy from the removal of Markair and Markair Express from all its markets in Alaska and the Lower 48 states. This report presents 5 cases based on different assumptions about the two main determinants of response in each market area--proportion of flights replaced by other carriers and relative employment needed to replace these flights. The most important assumption underlying this analysis is that these air transport markets are large enough to accommodate all current competitors. If this is a valid assumption then the basis for the calculations of job loss is reasonable. However if there are too many competitors chasing too few customers in some markets, some competitors would eventually leave and employment would fall. Then current employment levels would be above sustainable levels. Since the alternatives described in the 5 cases used in this report represent sustainable market situations, the estimates of employment loss in the 5 cases would be inflated if the comparison case were not sustainable.
    • Alaska Fisheries and Regional Economics

      Hull, Dan; Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1994)
      This report provides profiles for several commercial fisheries and the regional markets in which they are sold within Alaska. Information on five broad fisheries includes harvest, stocks, season, managment, price, ex vessel value, processing, market, market conditions, 'general', and market outlook. Regional markets included here are Duch Harbor/Unalaska, Kodiak, Bristol Bay (Dillingham annd Naknek), Prince William Sound, Kuskokwim/Bethel, Norton Sound, and Southeast Alaska.
    • Alaska Native Population Basics (Presentation)

      Howe, Lance; Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2003)
      This presentation was delivered at the conference on Improving Delivery of Federal Funding for Alaska Tribal Programs in Anchorage on the 5th of May, 2003. It includes charts and graphical information on Alaska Native demographics.