• Alaska Community Fuel Use

      Saylor, Ben; Wilson, Meghan; Szymoniak, Nick; Fay, Ginny; Colt, Steve (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2008-10)
      The goal of this project was to estimate the amount of fuel used for space heating and electricity production by communities in Alaska. No comprehensive Alaska fuel use data exist at the community level. Community fuel consumption by type of fuel and end use is needed to estimate the potential economic benefits from demand- and supply-side investments in fuel use reduction projects. These investments include weatherization and housing stock improvements; improved lighting, appliance and space heating efficiencies; waste heat capture; electric interties, and alternative energy supply options such as wind and hydroelectric generation. Ultimately the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA) and others can use this information to rank and select a suite of projects that provide the largest gains in fuel reductions at the lowest long-term costs and the highest returns on investment over the life of the projects. Study communities consisted of Power Cost Equalization (PCE) eligible communities. Communities in the North Slope Borough were excluded because fuel subsidies offered by the borough result in different patterns of energy use by households.
    • Alaska Energy Statistics 1960-2008

      Fay, Ginny; Meléndez, Alejandra Villalobos; Saylor, Ben; Gerd, Sarah Christine (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2011-05)
      Prior to 1985, the federal Alaska Power Administration published the Alaska Electric Power Statistics. Then, the Alaska Energy Authority (formerly the Alaska Power Authority) began gathering statistical data and publishing this annual report. In 1988, the Alaska Electric Power Statistics report became a combined effort between the Alaska Systems Coordinating Council and the Alaska Energy Authority. Beginning in 1993, the report became a joint effort between the Alaska Systems Coordinating Council and the Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs, Division of Energy. After the 1995 report, no further reports were published until 2003 when a report was prepared by the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA), with funding provided by the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA), the Regulatory Commission of Alaska (RCA), and the Denali Commission. This twenty-third edition of the Alaska Electric Energy Statistics was prepared by the Institute of Social and Economic Research. Information on utility, industry, and military electricity capacity, generation, and other characteristics was gathered primarily from reports filed with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA) and made available on their website. This was supplemented by data collected by the Alaska Energy Authority through the Power Cost Equalization (PCE) program and a limited number of direct contacts with electric power producers in the state. This is a similar methodology used to develop information for the 2003 report.
    • Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2008 - 2030

      Colt, Steve; Saylor, Ben; Szymoniak, Nick (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2008-04)
      We generated Low, Medium, and High case fuel price projections for the years 2008-2030 for the following fuels: • Incremental natural gas in Southcentral Alaska delivered to a utility-scale customer • Incremental diesel delivered to a PCE community utility tank • Incremental diesel delivered to a home in a PCE community • Incremental home heating oil purchased in Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau, Kenai, Ketchikan, Palmer, and Wasilla This memorandum provides documentation of the assumptions and methods that we used. Two companion Excel workbooks contain the detailed projections
    • Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2009-2030

      Fay, Ginny; Saylor, Ben; Szymoniak, Nick (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2010-01-15)
    • Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2010-2030

      Fay, Ginny; Saylor, Ben (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2010-07-30)
      We generated Low, Medium, and High case fuel price projections for the years 2010-2030 for the following fuels: Incremental natural gas in Southcentral Alaska delivered to a utility-scale customer Incremental diesel delivered to a PCE community utility tank Incremental diesel delivered to a home in a PCE community Incremental home heating oil purchased in Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau, Kenai, Ketchikan, Palmer, and Wasilla This memorandum provides documentation of the assumptions and methods that we used. A companion Excel workbook contains the detailed projections
    • Components of Delivered Fuel Prices in Alaska

      Wilson, Meghan; Saylor, Ben; Szymoniak, Nick; Colt, Steve; Fay, Ginny (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2008-06)
      This is a systematic analysis of components of delivered fuel prices in Alaska. Data for the analysis include limited publicly available Alaska fuel prices (fall 2007 prices), as well as information the authors gathered from extensive interviews with fuel retailers and transporters, communities, and agencies. We identify the individual components of delivered fuel costs—including world price of crude oil, refining costs, transportation costs, storage and distribution costs, taxes and financing costs—and investigate how these factors influence the final retail prices of home heating fuel and gasoline. Transportation, storage, and distribution costs appear to be the most variable factors driving the large retail fuel price differentials among Alaska communities. Therefore, we investigate how factors such as seasonal icing, the number of fuel transfers enroute to specific communities, local storage and delivery infrastructure, marine and river characteristics, and distance from refineries or fuel hubs influence fuel prices. We did an in-depth analysis of how those factors influence prices in ten case study communities around the state—Allakaket/Alatna, Angoon, Bethel, Chitina, False Pass, Fort Yukon, Lime Village, Mountain Village, Unalakleet, and Yakutat. Together, the quantitative data and information on Alaska fuel logistics provide a comprehensive analysis of Alaska’s fuel prices.
    • Dollars of Difference: What Affects Fuel Prices Around Alaska?

      Wilson, Meghan; Saylor, Ben; Szymoniak, Nick; Colt, Steve; Fay, Ginny (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2008-05)
      The spike in oil prices has hit rural Alaskans especially hard, because they rely mostly on fuel oil for heating. But some rural residents are paying much more than others—at times 100% more. The Alaska Energy Authority asked ISER to analyze what determines the prices rural households pay for fuel oil and gasoline. The agency hopes this research can help identify possible ways of holding down fuel prices in the future. In this summary we report only fuel oil prices, but the full report (see back page) also includes gasoline prices. We studied 10 communities that reflect, as much as possible, the forces driving fuel prices. We collected information in November 2007, and fuel prices have gone up a lot since then. Crude oil sold for $120 a barrel in mid-May, up from about $80 in fall 2007.
    • Estimated Household Costs for Home Energy Use

      Saylor, Ben; Haley, Sharman; Szymoniak, Nick (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2008-05)
      This memo estimates how much of their income Alaska households spend for home energy uses, after years of rising energy prices.1 We made the estimates at the request of State Senator Lyman Hoffman. We include costs for electricity, heat, and other home energy uses—but do not include costs for transportation fuel. Keep in mind that these are truly estimates. Because of time lags in data collection and reporting, actual consumer price data for 2008 are not available. To estimate consumer energy prices as of May 2008, we used statistical models of the relationship between oil prices and consumer prices. We also used the most recent data on per capita personal income from the Bureau of Economic Analysis to estimate 2007 annual household income. These estimates are likely to overstate actual household expenditures. As energy costs rise, households find ways to consume less. How much less, we don’t know. For these estimates, we used consumption households reported at the time of the 2000 U.S. Census. Also, the estimates in this memo reflect what energy would cost households for a year, at May 2008 prices. Consumers of course haven’t yet seen a full year at these prices, and we don’t know where prices will go from here.2 Therefore, these estimates are really like a cost index—that is, they estimate what it would cost to buy a specific amount of energy, at specific prices. That’s not the same as actual annual household expenditures. Still, these estimates give a good picture of what
    • How Would$1,200 Per Person State Payments Compare With Increased Household Costs for Energy Use?

      Colt, Steve; Saylor, Ben (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2008-07-11)
      In the face of sharply rising energy costs, Alaska’s governor, Sarah Palin, has proposed to pay every Alaskan $1,200 to help cover those increased costs. The Alaska Legislature will be considering the governor’s proposal in the special session that began July 9. How would the proposed payments—about $3,300 for the average-size Alaska household—compare with recent increases in energy costs? We looked at that question and present our estimates here. But these truly are estimates, because there’s not much current information about the types and amounts of energy Alaska households use.
    • Study of the Components of Delivered Fuel Costs in Alaska: January 2009 Update

      Fay, Ginny; Saylor, Ben; Szymoniak, Nick; Wilson, Meghan; Colt, Steve (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2009-01)
      This is an update of our previous report titled “Components of Delivered Fuel Prices in Alaska.”1 We provide more recent data on actual fuel prices in ten rural communities that we first examined in fall 2007. Rural communities across Alaska face extremely high fuel prices. People in these remote, cold places need large quantities of fuel for heat, electricity, and transportation. The estimated household cost for energy use in remote rural Alaska has increased significantly since 2000—increasing from approximately 16% of total household income to 47% in 2008 for the lowest income households. It is a higher portion of income for all income levels in remote rural Alaska as compared to Anchorage.2 In addition to the high price of fuel in rural Alaska, villages and communities have high unemployment rates, limited local economic bases, and local governments that are struggling to provide basic services to residents and businesses.3 A 2008 report done by the Alaska Division of Community Advocacy stated that the price of gasoline in 100 Alaska communities ranged from $2.75 (Fairbanks) to $9.00 (Arctic Village) per gallon with a mean of $5.80.4 In many areas of Alaska, transporting bulk fuel by air, barge, truck or a combination of these methods increases the price of fuel, most of which must be purchased prior to “freeze up” in cold winter months in order to allow time for delivery to remote villages. High remote rural fuel prices appear to be the result of a number of factors. These include high transportation costs to remote locations, limited and costly storage, small market size, and the financing costs associated with holding large inventories. The main purpose of this research is to identify the components of the cost of delivered fuel across rural Alaska. By understanding these cost components, it may be possible to identify opportunities to address them and reduce the overall cost of fuel.
    • The Value of Evidence-Based Computer Simulation of Oral Health Outcomes for Management Analysis of the Alaska Dental Health Aide Program

      Kiley, Daniel P.; Haley, Sharman; Saylor, Ben; Saylor, Brian L. (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2008-03)
      Objectives: To create an evidence‐based research tool to inform and guide policy and program managers as they develop and deploy new service delivery models for oral disease prevention and intervention. Methods: A village‐level discrete event simulation was developed to project outcomes associated with different service delivery patterns. Evidence‐ based outcomes were associated with dental health aide activities, and projected indicators (DMFT, F+ST, T‐health, SiC, CPI, ECC) were proxy for oral health outcomes. Model runs representing the planned program implementation, a more intensive staffing scenario, and a more robust prevention scenario, generated 20‐year projections of clinical indicators; graphs and tallies were analyzed for trends and differences. Results: Outcomes associated with alternative patterns of service delivery indicate there is potential for substantial improvement in clinical outcomes with modest program changes. Not all segments of the population derive equal benefit when program variables are altered. Children benefit more from increased prevention, while adults benefit more from intensive staffing. Conclusions: Evidence‐ based simulation is a useful tool to analyze the impact of changing program variables on program outcome measures. This simulation informs dental managers of the clinical outcomes associated with policy and service delivery variables. Simulation tools can assist public health managers in analyzing and understanding the relationship between their policy decisions and long‐term clinical outcomes.