• Agent-Based Modeling of the Bristol Bay Drift Gillnet Salmon Fishery

      Chasco, Brandon; Knapp, Gunnar; Hilborn, Ray (School of Aquatic & Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, 2006)
      Alaska’s Bristol Bay sockeye salmon fishery is the world’s largest fishery for this species. Between 1980 and 2005, annual catches averaged 24 million fish, with an annual average ex-vessel value of US$165 million. Historically, the Bristol Bay sockeye salmon fishery has accounted for 20-40% of the total value of Alaska salmon fisheries. Similar to most other Alaska salmon fisheries, Bristol Bay fisheries are managed to achieve escapement goals for several major river systems flowing into Bristol Bay. Fish- ing is allowed during period “openings” over the season to catch returning salmon surplus to escapement goals. In general, the current management system is reasonably successful from a biological point of view, in the sense that managers are usually able to control fishing effort to achieve escapement goals. Our initial fishery data analysis supports key model relationships that we have hypothesized have important implications for how prices, runs, and management may affect the Bristol Bay fishery. For example, the higher the ex-vessel value of the fishery, the more rapid the rate of permit outmigration from the Bristol Bay region.
    • Trends in Atlantic Salmon Markets and Implications for Bristol Bay Salmon Markets

      Knapp, Gunnar (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska, 2019)
      World salmon markets are dominated by farmed Atlantic salmon. As farmed salmon production has grown, Bristol Bay sockeye salmon has become an ever-smaller share of world salmon supply. Norway and Chile are by far the largest producers of farmed salmon, followed by the UK and Canada. Historically, year-over-year changes in US monthly imports have been inversely correlated with year-over-year changes in prices. What explains changes over time in the price premium or discount of sockeye relative to competing farmed salmon? Looking at the relationship between price and supply changes, we conclude that the market is able to absorb 6-7% more fish at stable prices. As a consequence, we expect a 5% increase in price is 2019 despite 4% supply growth.