• Alaska Economic Database: Charting Four Decades of Change

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2000)
      This document contains data collated over four decades between 1961 and 1998. Data included in this document relate to employment, Alaska and state gross product, earnings, wages, salaries, labor market, price indices, and other economic indicators considered to be important at the time of collection.
    • Economic Impacts of the Vetoes on the Alaska Economy

      Guettabi, Mouhcine; Klouda, Nolan (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2019-07-08)
      On June 28, 2019 Governor Mike Dunleavy announced line-item vetoes totaling $409 million from the State of Alaska budget for Fiscal Year 2020. These vetoes include significant cuts to the University of Alaska, Medicaid, payments to local governments, public assistance programs, state personnel headcounts, and numerous other categories. The full consequences of these cuts on the state economy, fiscal health, population, and policy outcomes will take years to develop. In this paper, we provide the short term impacts of the cuts, how they interact with the current state of the economy, and a descriptive outlook of the some of the future effects. We find the cuts will result in more than 4,000 jobs lost in the short run and will therefore return the Alaska economy into recession. While the short term losses represent a considerable negative shock to the economy, the consequences of these cuts on long term development could be even more pronounced.
    • How Vulnerable Is Alaska's Economy to Reduced Federal Spending?

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2008)
      About a third of all jobs in Alaska can be traced to federal spending here—and over the past decade the rapid increase in federal spending drove much of the economic growth. Federal spending in Alaska more than doubled between 1995 and 2005, and in 2006 it was $9.25 billion. But now federal spending here has stopped growing, and many Alaskans are worried that the economy is vulnerable to spending cuts as the federal budget tightens. This analysis estimates that Alaska could be vulnerable to federal spending cuts in the range of $450 million to $1.25 billion—which could cost the economy anywhere from about 7,000 to 20,000 jobs in the future. We estimate potential vulnerability as a range, because it’s impossible to predict with any precision how federal spending will actually change. The best we can do is estimate the likely magnitude of reductions, given federal budget problems.
    • What are the economic impacts of the vetoes?

      Guettabi, Mouhcine (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2019-07-08)
    • What do we know to date about the Alaska recession and the fiscal crunch?

      Guettabi, Mouhcine (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2018-01-01)
      We provide a broad overview of the state’s economic and fiscal conditions. We show how the economic contraction has spread away from natural resource and mining and state government to household spending dependent sectors. We also show that while the rate at which jobs are being lost has slowed, it is inaccurate to think about that as a sign of a recovery. That is because the engine of growth that is O&G employment as of June 2017 was only 75% of what it was in 2014. Additionally, the softness in spending activity may linger for an extended period of time. We also assess the regional effects of the recession and show the significant heterogeneity in experience. Unsurprisingly, areas with economic bases not associated with Oil and Gas and with relatively little dependence on state government spending are holding up best. After establishing an understanding of the economic conditions, we offer a back of the envelope calculation of the capital investment losses associated with the fiscal uncertainty. Then, we provide a comparison of Alaska’s taxes relative to the rest of the US, and a simulation of the effects of different withdrawal amounts on the permanent fund balance and the earnings reserve.
    • What Does $7.6 Billion in Federal Money Mean to Alaska?

      Larson, Eric; Leask, Linda; Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2003)
      The federal government spent $7.6 billion in Alaska in 2002. To get an idea of how big that is, look at the graph to the right, comparing it with some other sources of money in Alaska. This summary—based on a new ISER study —reports how the federal government spends money in Alaska and how much the state’s economy depends on that spending. The short answer: a lot. This summary is based on the ISER report, Federal Spending and Revenues in Alaska (2002).
    • What drives the cost of education in Alaska?

      DeFeo, Dayna (Center for Alaska Education Policy Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2019-04-15)