• 2007 Alaska's Construction Spending Forecast

      Killorin, Mary; Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2007)
      Uncertainty in the forecast for 2007 comes from several sources. The decline in the crude oil price in recent months may cause some firms working in the oil patch to re-evaluate their capital budget decisions and slow their rate of investment in exploration and development. All sectors of the industry are continuing to experience rapid increases in construction material costs that will undoubtedly cause some projects to be canceled or postponed, as has been the case in the last several years.
    • ACES High or Low? The Impact of a Severance Tax Change on Alaskan Oil Activity

      Tanaka, Audrey; Reimer, Matthew; Guettabi, Mouhcine (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2014-02-01)
    • ACES vs MAPA (SB21): Revenues and Jobs

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 6/1/2014)
    • Alaska Demographic, Economic, and Social Trends

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2001)
      This presentation outlines key developments in Alaska's development and potential directions for future development based on demographic, economic and social trends. At statehood the economy was dominated by the federal government, but today, at least in the larger communities, it looks surprisingly like the rest of the US. Booms and busts have and continue to exert a strong influence on the economy, particularly on regional economies, in spite of this maturation. The Petroleum Cycle has been the single most important economic event since statehood. Oil with a market value of about $250 billion has been produced from the NS. Production peaked in the late 1980s and the price peaked at $60 (NS delivered to the lower 48) in the early 1980s. We have had our share of happy events ranging from high oil prices when production was high to a high flying stock market when we had a Permanent Fund to invest, to a powerful congressional delegation when Washington had $$ to distribute. Now that we look more like the rest of the US and economic growth has slowed, we can should take stock of where we are. There are a number of surprises.
    • Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2011-2030

      Schwoerer, Tobias; Saylor, Ben; Fay, Ginny (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2011)
      This report and supporting spreadsheet outline Low, Medium, and High case fuel price projections for the years 2011-2030 for natural gas in Southcentral Alaska delivered to a utility-scale customer, diesel delivered to a PCE community utility tank, diesel delivered to a home in a PCE community, home heating oil purchased in Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau, Kenai, Ketchikan, Palmer, and Wasilla. The report provides documentation of the assumptions and methods that are used, while a companion Excel workbook contains the detailed projections.
    • The Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Program

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2001)
      This paper provides a short introduction to the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Program - a method for returning a portion of the revenues from petroleum development to the citizens of Alaska as a direct cash payment. It briefly touches on 5 topics - the mechanics of the Dividend, why it was established, its history, its economic, political and social effects, and the future of the Dividend.
    • Alaska's Economic Future: What Role for a North Slope Natural Gas Pipeline?

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2011)
      This presentation includes a number of graphical representations of gas and oil production and scenarios for alternative revenue streams.Presented at Public Forum on the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline.
    • Alaska's Economy: The Challenge Ahead (British Petroleum Citizen Action Program)

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2012)
    • Alaska's Economy: The Challenge Ahead (Chugiak-Eagle River Chamber of Commerce)

      Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2011
      This presentation includes information about employment and income from the Permanent Dividend Fund. Presented at the Chugiak-Eagle River Chamber of Commerce.
    • How do oil prices influence Alaska and other energy-dependent states?

      Guettabi, Mouhcine (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska, 2018)
      We analyze monthly data from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics to evaluate how fluctuations in oil prices affect economic activity in Alaska and other energy-dependent states. For this most recent recession, we find that only 6 of the traditional oil states experienced a recession. Four of those have already recovered, leaving Alaska and North Dakota as the only two to continue losing jobs. Using monthly employment data between 1991 and 2018 we estimate that, on average, the long run effect of a 10% change in oil prices results in a 1.7% change in employment across the five most important oil states. When analyzed individually, we find that some of them experience symmetric responses to oil price increases and decreases while others are much more sensitive to price declines.
    • Propane from the North Slope: Could It Reduce Energy Costs in the Interior?

      Goldsmith, Scott; Szymoniak, Nick (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2009)
      Could propane from the North Slope cut energy costs in Fairbanks and other Interior communities that heat buildings or generate electricity with fuel oil or naphtha? The Alaska Natural Gas Development Authority (ANGDA) thinks it could....We analyzed how fuel prices in Fairbanks might compare, under those assumptions and at different crude oil prices. We estimated the price of propane delivered to Fairbanks, the wholesale price of fuel oil in Fairbanks, and the price of the naphtha that Golden Valley Electric Association (the Fairbanks utility) burns to generate electricity. These aren’t prices residential customers would pay. The propane price doesn’t include costs of storing and distributing propane in Fairbanks, and we tried to make the fuel oil price comparable to that. This analysis is intended just to show relative fuel prices, given ANGDA’s assumptions.
    • Reflections on the Surplus Economy and the Alaska Permanent Fund

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute for Public Economics (University of Alberta), 2001)
      The Alaska Permanent Fund was created in 1977, shortly after oil form Alaska's North Slope began flowing to market through the Trans-Alaska Pipeline. It was originally envisioned to serve two general purposes - to set aside a share of oil revenues for the benefit of future generations of Alaskans after the depletion of the oil reserves, and to keep a share of oil revenues out of the hands of the current generation of politicians who could be counted to spend it on wasteful government operations and capital expenditures....The issue is how to design a set of public fiscal institutions that, taking this new revenue into account, will maximize long-term social welfare. Paper presented at a conference held at the University of Alberta, Sept. 2001.