• Alaska's Economic Outlook (Alaska House of Representatives)

      Guettabi, Mouhcine (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2019)
      This presentation includes information about employment and income from the Permanent Dividend Fund. Presented at the Alaska House of Representatives.
    • Alaska's Economic outlook (Seattle Chamber of Commerce)

      Guettabi, Mouhcine (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2019)
      This presentation includes information about employment and income from the Permanent Dividend Fund. Presented at the Seattle Chamber of Commerce.
    • Alaska's economy and the pandemic

      Guettabi, Mouhcine (2020-06-30)
      The Alaska economy has emerged from its longest recession in 2019. The decline in economic activity and government revenues was due to the severe decline in oil prices which resulted in deep spending cuts and significant private sector job losses. The current pandemic has resulted in a significant shock to all facets of the Alaska economy. In this paper, we provide a little bit of background on the Alaska economy, present new high frequency data to asses the extent of the current damage, and then present a forecast for the next 6, 12, and 18 months. In 2020, we anticipate the economy to end the year with almost 25,000 fewer jobs than in 2019. The decrease would represent a 7.4% relative to the previous year. In 2021, we expect the economy to slowly start regaining the jobs lost the previous year and grow at a rate of 2.2%. In 2022, we anticipate a continuing climb for the economy as it is expected to grow at 1.1% percent. By the end of 2022, the Alaska economy should be at about 95% of the pre-pandemic levels. It is important to note there are significant downside risks which could negatively influence the employment outlook.
    • How do oil prices influence Alaska and other energy-dependent states?

      Guettabi, Mouhcine (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska, 2018)
      We analyze monthly data from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics to evaluate how fluctuations in oil prices affect economic activity in Alaska and other energy-dependent states. For this most recent recession, we find that only 6 of the traditional oil states experienced a recession. Four of those have already recovered, leaving Alaska and North Dakota as the only two to continue losing jobs. Using monthly employment data between 1991 and 2018 we estimate that, on average, the long run effect of a 10% change in oil prices results in a 1.7% change in employment across the five most important oil states. When analyzed individually, we find that some of them experience symmetric responses to oil price increases and decreases while others are much more sensitive to price declines.
    • A short brief on the regional dimensions of the Alaska recession

      Guettabi, Mouhcine (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2/7/2018)
      We provide a short update on the Alaska recession by examining its regional dimensions. Specifically, we evaluate the performance of the Alaska boroughs/census areas in each of the last three years and determine which areas have been resilient and which ones continue losing jobs.