• $1.5 Billion and Growing: Economic Contribution of Older Alaskans

      Goldsmith, Scott; Angvik, Jane (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2006)
      Nearly $1.5 billion a year flows into Alaska from a source that doesn’t depend on oil or fish or gold, isn’t influenced by world markets, and isn’t seasonal. That cash flow roughly equals what fishermen were paid in 2005 for their Alaska seafood harvests, or the value of zinc, gold, and other metals mined in Alaska in 2004. It’s close to what tourists spend here every summer. What’s the source? Retired Alaskans. The 52,000 retirees age 60 or older brought an estimated $1.46 billion into the state in 2004. About 75% is from Social Security and pensions. Most of the rest is spending by governments and private insurers for health-care costs of retired Alaskans. ISER estimates that spending by retirees supports about 11,700 jobs—or nearly 4% of Alaska’s wage and salary jobs. This summary reports ISER’s findings about the economic contributions of older Alaskans, describes who they are, and estimates how their numbers are likely to grow.
    • 1987 Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act Compliance Monitoring Report

      Parry, David L. (Justice Center, University of Alaska Anchorage, 1989-07)
      The Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act (JJDPA) mandates removal of status offenders and nonoffenders from secure detention and correctional facilities, sight and sound separation of juveniles and adults, and removal of juveniles from adult jails and lockups. In Alaska, 32 instances of a status offender held in secure detention were recorded in 1987; by comparison, there were 485 violations in the baseline year of 1976. 806 separation violations were recorded in 1988, representing a 2% reduction from the 1976 baseline if 824 violations. 601 jail removal violations occurred, representing a 30% reduction from the 1980 baseline. The report includes significant discussion of obstacles to Alaska's compliance with JJDPA and measures being taken to overcome those obstacles.
    • 1988 Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act Compliance Monitoring Report

      Parry, David L. (Justice Center, University of Alaska Anchorage, 1990-03)
      The Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act (JJDPA) mandates removal of status offenders and nonoffenders from secure detention and correctional facilities, sight and sound separation of juveniles and adults, and removal of juveniles from adult jails and lockups. In Alaska, 7 instances of a status offender held in secure detention were recorded in 1988; by comparison, there were 485 violations in the baseline year of 1976. (An addittional two status offenders held in secure detention satisfied the "valid court order" exception, and were not counted as violations.) 564 separation violations were recorded in 1988, representing a 32% reduction from the 1976 baseline and 30% since the Alaska Division of Family and Youth Services implemented its revised Jail Removal Plan in December 1987. 409 jail removal violations occurred, representing a 53% reduction from the 1980 baseline.
    • 1989 Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act Compliance Monitoring Report

      Read, Emily E.; Schafer, N. E. (Justice Center, University of Alaska Anchorage, 1990-12-03)
      The Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act (JJDPA) mandates removal of status offenders and nonoffenders from secure detention and correctional facilities, sight and sound separation of juveniles and adults, and removal of juveniles from adult jails and lockups. In Alaska, two instances of a status offender held in secure detention were recorded in 1989; but both satisfied the "valid court order" exception, so were not counted as violations; by comparison, there were 485 violations in the baseline year of 1976. 336 separation violations were recorded in 1989, representing a 60% reduction from the 1976 baseline and 41% from 1988. 249 jail removal violations occurred, representing a 71% reduction from the 1980 baseline and an 39% reduction from 1988.
    • 1990 Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act Compliance Monitoring Report

      Read, Emily E.; Schafer, N. E. (Justice Center, University of Alaska Anchorage, 1991-10)
      The Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act (JJDPA) mandates removal of status offenders and nonoffenders from secure detention and correctional facilities, sight and sound separation of juveniles and adults, and removal of juveniles from adult jails and lockups. In Alaska, no instances of a status offender held in secure detention were recorded in 1990, as compared with 485 violations in the baseline year of 1976. 135 separation violations were recorded in 1990, representing an 84% reduction from the 1976 baseline and 60% from 1989. 99 jail removal violations occurred, representing a 89% reduction from the 1980 baseline and an 60% reduction from 1989.
    • 1991 Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act Compliance Monitoring Report

      Curtis, Richard W.; Schafer, N. E. (Justice Center, University of Alaska Anchorage, 1992-10)
      The Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act (JJDPA) mandates removal of status offenders and nonoffenders from secure detention and correctional facilities, sight and sound separation of juveniles and adults, and removal of juveniles from adult jails and lockups. In Alaska, one instance of a status offender held in secure detention was recorded in 1991, as compared with 485 violations in the baseline year of 1976. 65 separation violations were recorded in 1991, representing a 92% reduction from the 1976 baseline and 48% from 1990. 81 jail removal violations occurred, representing a 90% reduction from the 1980 baseline and an 18% reduction from 1990.
    • 1992 Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act Compliance Monitoring Report

      Curtis, Richard W.; Schafer, N. E.; Atwell, Cassie (Justice Center, University of Alaska Anchorage, 1993-10)
      The Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act (JJDPA) mandates removal of status offenders and nonoffenders from secure detention and correctional facilities, sight and sound separation of juveniles and adults, and removal of juveniles from adult jails and lockups. In Alaska, one instance of a status offender held in secure detention was recorded in 1992, as compared with 485 violations in the baseline year of 1976. 11 separation violations were recorded in 1992, representing a 99% reduction from the 1976 baseline and 83% from 1992. 44 jail removal violations occurred, representing a 95% reduction from the 1980 baseline and an 46% reduction from 1992.
    • 1993 Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act Compliance Monitoring Report

      Curtis, Richard W.; Atwell, Cassie; Schafer, N. E. (Justice Center, University of Alaska Anchorage, 1994-09)
      The Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act (JJDPA) mandates removal of status offenders and nonoffenders from secure detention and correctional facilities, sight and sound separation of juveniles and adults, and removal of juveniles from adult jails and lockups. In Alaska, no instances of a status offender held in secure detention was recorded in 1993, as compared with 485 violations in the baseline year of 1976. 16 separation violations were recorded in 1992, representing a 98% reduction from the 1976 baseline of 824 violations. 59 jail removal violations were projected, representing a 94% reduction from the 1980 baseline and an 25% increase from 1992.
    • 2004 Alaska Construction Spending Forecast

      Goldsmith, Scott; Killorin, Mary (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2004)
      We estimate total construction spending in Alaska in 2004 will be $5.315 billion, about the same as last year. Private spending will be $3.250 billion, or 61 percent of the total. Public spending will contribute $2.065 billion, or 39 percent.
    • 2004 Census and Survey of Homeless Youths in Homer, Alaska

      Rosay, André B. (University of Alaska Anchorage Justice Center, 2005-06-01)
      In the spring and summer of 2004, we conducted a homeless youth survey and assessed the services available to these youths in order to identify gaps in services. As we interviewed youths, it became clear that we interviewed youths at vastly different stages of homelessness. At the first stage were youths who had less experience being homeless or had just begun their homeless experience. We categorized these youths as runaways. At the second stage were youths who experienced longer, more extensive, or more intense periods of homelessness. We categorized these youths as chronic homeless youths. Runaway youths became homeless primarily because of problems at home, suggesting a need for greater family counseling in Homer. Runaway youths were also heavily involved in drug and alcohol use, suggesting a need for greater drug and alcohol programming. When runaway youths were directly asked about needed services, most expressed needs for additional recreational activities, particularly in terms of places were youth would be welcome. As homelessness progresses from the runaway stage to the chronic homelessness stage, the needs of homeless youths changed. Once at the chronic homelessness stage, the needs of homeless youths become more focused on employment assistance. Chronic homeless youths were homeless because they simply could not afford housing in Homer due to a lack of meaningful employment with decent pay and benefits. Compared to runaways, it is more difficult for chronic homeless youths to transition back into permanent housing. However, employment assistance would allow these youths to transition back into permanent housing. Results from the services survey indicate that many services are already available to homeless youths in Homer. In particular, the basic physical needs of homeless youths appear to be adequately satisfied. Few youths expressed needs for these services. Youths who did express such needs were able to receive these services and held favorable opinions about the services they had received. However, fewer agencies provided employment assistance, drug and alcohol programming, family counseling, or recreational opportunities to homeless youths. At the same time, these were significant needs expressed either directly or indirectly by the homeless youths surveyed. The recommendations that emerge from this study are therefore to enhance employment assistance (particularly for chronic homeless youths) and to enhance drug and alcohol programming, family counseling, and recreational opportunities (particularly for runaway youths). Employment assistance should be designed to lead youths into productive and meaningful careers that provide enough pay to afford housing. All services should be developed so that they are available during the summer (when youths are out of school) and to all youths, including ones who have stopped going to school. Furthermore, it is critical to keep the costs of these services as low as possible, as most of these youths (and their families) have few financial resources. Finally, more should be done to make available services known to homeless youths, particularly to runaway youths. Although many services are already provided to youths in Homer, most runaway youths were unaware of these services. With help and guidance, all youths can successfully transition back into permanent housing. At the same time, these services may prevent youths from becoming homeless.
    • 2005 Alaska Construction Spending Forecast

      Goldsmith, Scott; Killorin, Mary (Associated General Contractors of Alaska: Construction Industry Progress Fund, 2005)
      Construction spending is one of the important contributors to overall economic activity in Alaska. It supports firms not only in the construction industry itself, but also construction activity “hidden” in other sectors of the economy such as oil and gas and mining. This is the second year we have prepared a forecast of construction spending, and our categories of spending are not exactly comparable to those last year. Consequently it is not possible to directly compare the forecasts by category between 2004 and 2005. Although we have not conducted a formal year-end review of construction spending in 2004, in the process of collecting information for 2005 we have determined that our projection for 2004 was robust.
    • 2006 Alaska's Construction Spending Forecast

      Goldsmith, Scott; Killorin, Mary (2005)
      Total construction spending in Alaska in 2006 will be $6.525 billion, an increase of 13% from a revised figure of $5.755 billion in 2005. This is the amount of money that will “hit the street” for construction during the year. Because of increases in the cost of materials during 2005, industry employment and other measures of activity will not expand as much as spending, but 2006 will be another very strong year for the construction industry with some sectors, most notably education, up sharply from 2005. Uncertainty in the forecast for 2006 comes from the likelihood that material prices will continue to be volatile due to strong demand. This may negatively impact some major projects, as was the case in 2005. For example the Alyeska pipeline reconfiguration project was originally scheduled for completion last year, but cost overruns (and possibly other factors) caused total spending to increase substantially and the estimated time for completion to be moved into 2006."
    • 2007 Alaska's Construction Spending Forecast

      Killorin, Mary; Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2007)
      Uncertainty in the forecast for 2007 comes from several sources. The decline in the crude oil price in recent months may cause some firms working in the oil patch to re-evaluate their capital budget decisions and slow their rate of investment in exploration and development. All sectors of the industry are continuing to experience rapid increases in construction material costs that will undoubtedly cause some projects to be canceled or postponed, as has been the case in the last several years.
    • 2008 Alaska's Construction Spending Forecast

      Killorin, Mary; Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2008)
      Total construction spending “on the street” in Alaska in 2008 will be $7.01 billion, down 2% from last year. Excluding the oil and gas sector—which accounts for 41% of the total—construction spending will be down for the second year in a row, falling 6% to $4.12 billion. Last year it declined 3%. Lower construction spending, combined with higher material and labor costs, will result in a modest reduction in the level of construction employment in 2008. Although this will be the second year of decline in construction employment, it remains well above the long-term trend. Construction costs continue to rise faster than the general rate of inflation—and that trend is expected to continue, further reducing the purchasing power of each construction dollar. Private-sector construction spending is projected to be $4.64 billion in 2008, an increase of 2% over 2007. Strong growth is expected in oil and gas, mining, utilities, and the other basic sectors.
    • 2009 Alaska Health Workforce Vacancy Study

      Landon, Beth; Doucette, Sanna; Frazier, Rosyland; Wilson, Meghan; Silver, Darla; Hill, Alexandra; Sanders, Kate; Sharp, Suzanne; Johnson, Kristin; DeRoche, Patricia; et al. (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2009-12)
      Alaska continues to experience health professional shortages. The state has long had a deficient “supply side” characterized by insufficient numbers of key health workers whose recruitment, retention, and training have been impeded by Alaska’s remoteness, harsh climate, rural isolation, low population density, and scarce training resources. Alaska is the only state without a pharmacy school and lacks its own dental and physical therapy schools as well. Health professional shortages can be decreased through the start of new training programs, the expansion of existing programs, and the improvement of the effectiveness of recruitment and retention efforts. However, strategic planning and the execution of such programs require valid and accurate data. To this end, stakeholders such as the Alaska Mental Health Trust Authority (AMHTA) and Alaskan's For Access to Health Care (ACCESS), along with schools and departments within the University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA), funded the Alaska Center for Rural Health-Alaska’s AHEC (ACRH) and the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) to conduct a comprehensive health workforce study during winter and spring of 2009. This report highlights employers’ needs for employees to fill budgeted positions. This is different from a needs assessment that would take into account population demographics and disease incidence and prevalence. This health workforce study is an assessment of health manpower shortage based on budgeted staff positions and their vacancies in organizations throughout the state. Respondents included part-time positions, which resulted in our counting full-time equivalent (FTE) rather than individuals (“bodies”). In situations where a position was divided among more than one occupation (e.g., Dental Assistant and Billing Clerk), we asked the respondent to count the position under which they considered the position’s “primary occupation.” This was a point-in-time cross-sectional study. Recently filled vacancies or imminent vacancies were not counted. Positions filled by relief/temporary/locum/contract health workers were counted as vacancies only if these workers were temporarily filling a currently vacant, budgeted position. Due to budget and time constraints, we were not able to conduct a trend analysis that is a comparison of this study’s findings and the prior 2007 study. The key questions this study sought to answer were (1) How many budgeted positions, either full- or part-time, existed in organizations providing health services in Alaska? (2) How many of these budgeted positions were currently vacant? (3) What was the vacancy rate? (4) How many of the organizations that employ these occupations hired new graduates of training programs? (5) How many of the currently vacant budgeted positions (#2) could be filled by new graduates of training programs? (6) What were the mean and maximum length of time, expressed in months, that the vacancies have existed? (7) What were the principal, underlying causes of vacancies? The study was designed in consultation with an advisory group that included AMHTA, ACCESS, and UAA. The study targeted 93 health occupations. The unit of analysis was the employment site by organization type, which allowed for the allocation of positions and vacancies by geographic region. For each employer, we identified the staff person most knowledgeable about hiring and vacancies. In large organizations this meant that one employer might provide information about multiple sites and organization types; smaller employers were responsible for only a single site.
    • 2009 Alaska Health Workforce Vacancy Study - Report and Appendices

      Alaska Center for Rural Health; ISER, 2009
      Health professional shortages can be decreased through the start of new training programs, the expansion of existing programs, and the improvement of the effectiveness of recruitment and retention efforts. However, strategic planning and the execution of such programs require valid and accurate data. To this end, stakeholders such as the Alaska Mental Health Trust Authority (AMHTA) and Alaskan's For Access to Health Care (ACCESS), along with schools and departments within the University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA), funded the Alaska Center for Rural Health-Alaska’s AHEC (ACRH) and the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) to conduct a comprehensive health workforce study during winter and spring of 2009. This report highlights employers’ needs for employees to fill budgeted positions. This is different from a needs assessment that would take into account population demographics and disease incidence and prevalence. This health workforce study is an assessment of health manpower shortage based on budgeted staff positions and their vacancies in organizations throughout the state. Respondents included part-time positions, which resulted in our counting full-time equivalent (FTE) rather than individuals (“bodies”). In situations where a position was divided among more than one occupation (e.g., Dental Assistant and Billing Clerk), we asked the respondent to count the position under which they considered the position’s “primary occupation.” The study was designed in consultation with an advisory group that included AMHTA, ACCESS, and UAA. The study targeted 93 health occupations. The unit of analysis was the employment site by organization type, which allowed for the allocation of positions and vacancies by geographic region. APPENDICES: Appendix A. List of Health Occupations, Appendix B. Health Workforce Surveys, Appendix C. Cover Letter Accompanying Survey Forms, Appendix D. Confidence Intervals for Positions, Vacancies, Number of Vacancies Filled with New Graduates, and Length of Longest Vacancy in Months, Appendix E. Tables of Samples and Estimates of Positions, Vacancies, Vacancy Rates, Number of Vacancies Filled with New Graduates, Mean and Maximum Length of Longest Vacancy in Months, Appendix F. Tables of Occupations Sorted By Estimates of Positions, Vacancies, Vacancy Rates, Number of Vacancies Filled with New Graduates, Mean and Maximum Length of Longest Vacancy in Months
    • 2009 Alaska’s Construction Spending Forecast

      Goldsmith, Oliver Scott; Killorin, Mary (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2009-01)
      Construction spending “on the street” in Alaska in 2009 will be $7.1 billion, down 3% from 2008.1,2,3 Lower construction spending, combined with higher material and labor costs, will result in a modest reduction in the level of construction employment in 2009. Although this will be the fourth year of decline, the level remains considerably above the long-term average. Excluding the oil and gas sector—which accounts for 43% of the total—construction spending will be $4.1 billion—down 1% from 2008. Private-sector construction spending will follow the slowdown in the Alaska economy. Excluding oil and gas, we expect private spending to be $1.3 billion in 2009, a decline of 24% from 2008. But strength in the oil and gas sector will keep the overall private sector decline to only 12%. Mining, utilities, and commercial spending will be down, mostly because a number of large projects have been completed. However, commercial —as well as residential— spending will be weaker, in response to the slowdown in the U.S. economy. Public construction spending will be up 16%, to $2.7 billion, offsetting much of the decline in private spending. That growth will mainly be due to the large FY 2009 state capital budget. But strong federal spending— both military and civilian— and the federal stimulus package will also contribute to the increase. Uncertainty in this year’s forecast comes from several sources. Volatility in commodity prices has affected construction spending in two important ways. The lower petroleum and metals prices in early 2009 have made investment in some prospects less attractive. Also, companies that finance construction activities out of their current cash flow are dealing with shrinking capital budgets. The national economy continues to deteriorate as we enter 2009.
    • 2010 Alaska's Construction Spending Forecast

      Goldsmith, Oliver Scott; Killorin, Mary (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2010-01)
      The total value of construction spending “on the street” in Alaska in 2010 will be $7.0 billion, down 3% from 2009.1,2,3 Wage and salary employment in the construction industry will continue the slow decline which began in 2006, but the level remains above the long-term average for the industry. Excluding the oil and gas sector—which accounts for 43% of the total—construction spending will be $4.0 billion— down 4% from 2009. Private-sector construction spending will be down only 1% from 2009, to $4.4 billion, in spite of the slowdown in the Alaska economy. Oil and gas sector spending will be flat. Spending will increase in the utilities and hospitals4 categories but will decline in mining, residential, other commercial, and the other rural basic sector categories. Public construction spending will be down 5%, to $2.6 billion, in spite of the infusion of cash from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). Although some categories of federal spending will be higher, many will be lower and state spending will also be lower because of the lean FY 2010 capital budget. Uncertainty in this year’s forecast comes from several sources. As we start 2010 there is no clear indication if the national economy is starting to recover from the recession, and if it does, how strong that recovery will be. Although Alaska has been insulated from the worst effects of the recession—the crash in the housing market, high unemployment, and lack of credit—concerns about the national recovery will continue to influence investment decisions in the state, particularly in the commercial and residential markets. Local government capital spending is also vulnerable to reductions in tax revenues from activities, like tourism, driven by the national economy. The passage of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) in early 2009 has provided an important boost to construction spending this year. A second stimulus may be undertaken later this year, but it is too soon to speculate on how that might impact construction spending, so we assume no further federal action. The Alaska economy contracted in 2009 for the first time in 22 years—but the reduction in employment was only about 1%. Forecasts for Alaska’s economy in 2010 vary from further moderate declines in employment to a resumption of growth. This difference of opinion underscores the sense of caution in the business community about the near-term prospects for the economy. As the year begins, petroleum and precious metal (gold and silver) prices are strong and rising, and base metal prices (zinc) have rebounded from the lows of last year. Petroleum and mining capital budgets are particularly sensitive to these prices, which are likely to continue to fluctuate throughout the year. We assume these prices remain strong throughout the year.
    • 2010 Anchorage Underage Drinking Survey: A Look at Adult Attitudes, Perceptions, and Norms

      Rivera, Marny; Parker, Khristy; McMullen, Jennifer (University of Alaska Anchorage Justice Center, 2012-07-12)
      The Anchorage Underage Drinking Survey (AUDS) was conducted to assess adults’ recent exposure to Communities Mobilizing for Change on Alcohol media campaign about underage drinking, as well as adult attitudes, norms, and perceptions regarding the underage drinking problem in Anchorage. Our interest was in understanding community perceptions regarding the extent of the underage drinking problem, underage access to alcohol through social and retail outlets, consequences of underage drinking, and laws and policies designed to reduce underage drinking and the consequences stemming from it. The survey contained six major sections: (1) underage drinking problem, (2) adult influences on underage drinking, (3) alcohol consumption, (4) responses to underage drinking, (5) public service advertisements, and (6) respondent background information.
    • 2011 Alaska's Construction Spending Forecast

      Goldsmith, Oliver Scott; Killorin, Mary (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2011-02)
      The total value of construction spending “on the street” in Alaska in 2011 will be $7.1 billion, up 4% from 2010.1,2,3 Wage and salary employment in the construction industry will continue the slow decline that began in 2006, but the level remains above the long-term average for the industry. Excluding the oil and gas sector—which accounts for 41% of the total—construction spending will be $4.2 billion—up 5% from 2010. Private-sector construction spending will be up 6% from 2010, to $4.5 billion, in spite of the expected slow growth in the overall Alaska economy. Oil and gas sector spending will be about $2.9 billion, up 3%. Spending will increase in the utility and hospitals4 categories, but will decline in residential and other commercial categories. Public construction spending will be up 1%, to $2.7 billion, due to the large FY 2011 state capital budget. The main infusion of cash from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) has worked its way through the system, and federal spending overall has declined. Uncertainty is particularly significant in the forecast this year, especially in the oil and gas sector—in spite of high oil prices. In January 2011, uncertainty surrounds most of the large-scale petroleum projects on the North Slope and in Cook Inlet. Environmental reviews are slowing development drilling at Point Thomson east of Prudhoe Bay and Alpine West in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska. Exploration drilling offshore in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas continues to face legal challenges. The offshore Liberty project is under internal environmental review. In Cook Inlet, a major offshore exploration effort awaits the uncertain arrival of a jack-up rig. In this forecast we assume most of these projects will move forward this year, but their pace is hard to predict. If several are delayed in 2011, oil and gas spending will be significantly lower.