• The Aborigine in Comparative Law: Subnational Report on Alaska Natives

      Conn, Stephen (Justice Center, University of Alaska Anchorage, 1986-08)
      This paper describes the current state of aboriginal rights in Alaska and the impact of federal and state laws and policies on Alaska Native political and legal rights, tribal status, self-determination, and access to tribal lands. Topics covered include the legal determination of Alaska Native identity, the legal status of Alaska Native groups, Alaska Native land rights, sovereignty and self-government, subsistence, recognition of family and kinship structures, the criminal justice system in rural Alaska, customary versus formal legal process, and human rights and equality before the law.
    • ADAM-Anchorage Data: Are They Representative?

      Myrstol, Brad A.; Langworthy, Robert H. (Justice Center, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2005-03)
      This paper presents the results of a study designed to assess the representativeness of realized samples of recent arrestees selected for the Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring (ADAM) program in Anchorage, Alaska. Because one of the most important goals of the ADAM program is to produce scientific information on the prevalence of alcohol and drug use behaviors among arrestees that is generalizable to an entire local arrestee population, establishing the representativeness of realized samples (or isolating inherent biases) is an essential first step to meaningful use of these data to address locally defined problems. In order to determine the reasonableness of inferences grounded in realized samples of ADAM respondents, an analysis was done comparing various characteristics between each stage of the sample selection process including the census of eligible arrestee population, the designed ADAM arrestee sample, arrestees available for interview, arrestees actually interviewed (“realized” sample), and arrestees that provided urine sample (“realized” sample). If the realized samples are similar to the census we can have a greater degree of confidence in our capacity to describe the population of Anchorage arrestees using ADAM data. Also, if it happens that departures are detected between realized samples and the arrestee census we are better positioned to condition the inferences made by integrating these discerned biases into our conclusions.
    • Alaska after Prudhoe Bay: Sustainability of an Island Economy

      Goldsmith, Oliver Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2011-03)
      The typical sovereign island economy is small and remote. For example the remote island nations of Nauru, Niue, and Saint Helena have populations in the range of 10 thousand each. Of course not all island nations are small or remote and neither are small or remote economies necessarily islands. However it is useful to think about the economies of small and remote islands because they can help us to understand the economic structure and prospects of larger and less remote places. Island economies generally lack a comparative advantage in the production of goods or services for export to the rest of the world. This is due to distance from markets and suppliers as well as an absence of economies of scale and specialization, both of which drive up the cost of exporting goods and services. And although the economic theory of comparative advantage tells us that trade among countries can occur even if one has an advantage in the production of all goods and services, that theory can break down if costs in the small and remote economy are too high. The mechanism by which the island economy gains access to export markets in the presence of high costs is through downward adjustment in the wage. But in some cases the wage would need to become negative to overcome the cost disadvantages created by distance and size. In such a case the island would have a subsistence economy with neither exports to the rest of the world or imports. The most important private economic activities one observes in these economies are agriculture and fishing. Occasionally an island economy will be able to take advantage of a market niche to generate exports. Tourism is the most common, and mining has provided an export base in some other places. However these market activities will not necessarily be large enough to employ a large share of the population. Furthermore dependence on a single activity leaves these economies vulnerable or “precarious”.As a consequence many of these economies are dependent on foreign aid and remittances from emigrants. These funds allow these economies to purchase a basic level of imports that would not otherwise be possible
    • Alaska as a Case Study of OJJDP-Mandated Jail Monitoring

      Schafer, N. E.; Read, Emily E. (Justice Center, University of Alaska Anchorage, 1990-10-03)
      The Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency prevention has mandated that all states monitor jail records for the presence of juveniles and inspect jails and lock-ups in which juveniles might be detained for sight and sound separation. The experience of Alaska in complying with this mandate is instructive. In the largest state in the union 99 facilities in a monitoring universe of 111 (89.1 %) are accessible only by air or water. Alaska's jail monitoring plan accommodated this inaccessibility. The plan and 1989 monitoring activities are explained and discussed. As the largest state in the Union Alaska has had some unique problems complying with the mandate of the Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Act to monitor secure facilities for the presence of juveniles. In spite of these problems Alaska has produced a model monitoring plan and has successfully completed three years of compliance monitoring activities. The monitoring process and the problems associated with monitoring activities are useful for other states to consider as they review their monitoring plans.
    • Alaska Criminal History Record Information: A White Paper

      Trostle, Lawrence C. (Justice Center, University of Alaska Anchorage, 1991-09-26)
      In their Statutory Recommendations submitted in 1989 to the Alaska Department of Public Safety, SEARCH Group, Inc. recommended that the Alaska Public Safety Information Network (APSIN) be expanded to capture and report 18 additional events to improve Alaska criminal history record information (CHRI). This paper examines the viability of including the proposed 18 events in Alaska CHRI, and suggests a distributed data tracking system using the Arrest Tracking Number (ATN) to interface between APSIN and other Alaska justice system databases as the best and most economical means of improving Alaska CHRI. Appendices include the SEARCH report and other information bearing on CHRI standards.
    • Alaska Economic Database: Charting Four Decades of Change

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2000)
      This document contains data collated over four decades between 1961 and 1998. Data included in this document relate to employment, Alaska and state gross product, earnings, wages, salaries, labor market, price indices, and other economic indicators considered to be important at the time of collection.
    • Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2009-2030

      Fay, Ginny; Saylor, Ben; Szymoniak, Nick (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2010-01-15)
    • Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2010-2030

      Fay, Ginny; Saylor, Ben (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2010-07-30)
      We generated Low, Medium, and High case fuel price projections for the years 2010-2030 for the following fuels: Incremental natural gas in Southcentral Alaska delivered to a utility-scale customer Incremental diesel delivered to a PCE community utility tank Incremental diesel delivered to a home in a PCE community Incremental home heating oil purchased in Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau, Kenai, Ketchikan, Palmer, and Wasilla This memorandum provides documentation of the assumptions and methods that we used. A companion Excel workbook contains the detailed projections
    • Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2011-2030

      Schwoerer, Tobias; Saylor, Ben; Fay, Ginny (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2011)
      This report and supporting spreadsheet outline Low, Medium, and High case fuel price projections for the years 2011-2030 for natural gas in Southcentral Alaska delivered to a utility-scale customer, diesel delivered to a PCE community utility tank, diesel delivered to a home in a PCE community, home heating oil purchased in Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau, Kenai, Ketchikan, Palmer, and Wasilla. The report provides documentation of the assumptions and methods that are used, while a companion Excel workbook contains the detailed projections.
    • Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2012-2035

      Fay, Ginny; Meléndez, Alejandra Villalobos; Pathan, Sohrab (2012-07)
      This and previous Alaska fuel price projections were developed for the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA) for the purpose of estimating the potential benefits and costs of renewable energy projects. Project developers submit applications to AEA for grants awarded under the Alaska Renewable Energy Fund program process. The fuel price projections are not price forecasts but a statistical estimation of potential future utility avoided fuel costs based on the relationships between historic utility fuel prices and crude oil and refinery prices reported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA). These statistically estimated relationships are used to project potential future fuel prices based on EIA’s published Annual Energy Outlook crude oil and natural gas price forecasts. In addition to developing these low, medium and high fuel price projections, estimates of the social cost of carbon (previously included as estimates of potential carbon taxes), and a price differential for home heating fuel are provided and are incorporated into the Renewable Energy Fund benefit-cost model for evaluating potential projects. Previously, a five cents premium for low sulfur fuels was added to the projections in anticipation of implementation of low sulfur fuel air quality requirements. However, the low sulfur fuel requirement was implemented in 2010; hence recent prices reflect the effects of the rule and a premium is no longer necessary. The fuel price projections are limited in their applicability to the modeling of project benefits and costs and should not be considered fuel price forecasts.
    • The Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend: A Case Study in Implementation of a Basic Income Guarantee

      Goldsmith, Oliver Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2010-07)
      The Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend program has attracted considerable interest because it is a unique example of a BASIC INCOME GUARANTEE. In this paper, I describe the structure of the dividend program, its economic effects, some of its unintended consequences; and I close with a number of observations about how the dividend might be structured differently. My objective is to give the reader insights into the factors to consider in implementing a BASIC INCOME GUARANTEE in other places. However, before beginning it is important to present a short description of Alaska because the structure of any BASIC INCOME program and its impacts are contingent upon the particular institutional, economic, political, and social environment in which it is located. Alaska is the largest of the 50 United States measured by land area—but among the smallest measured by population. Its 700 thousand residents comprise only about twotenths of one percent of the total U.S. population. As a state within the United States, its border is open to the rest of the nation for the free movement of goods and services, people, capital, and information. Furthermore, it is subject to the laws, regulations, and policies established by the federal government. As I will discuss below, these connections create some challenges for the dividend program because the state cannot totally control its own economic and political environment.
    • Alaska Victimization Survey: Detailed Responses to Intimate Partner Violence and Sexual Violence Questions

      Rosay, André B.; Rivera, Marny; Myrstol, Brad A.; Wood, Darryl S. (Justice Center, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2011-04-07)
      This brief paper presents survey questions used in the Alaska Victimization Survey on experience of intimate partner violence and sexual violence. Weighted results of reported victimization by respondents are also given. The Alaska Victimization Survey, designed to establish a baseline for estimates of intimate partner and sexual violence, is modeled after the National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey (NISVS) of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).
    • Alaska without Petroleum: A Preliminary Run of a Gendanken Experiment

      Goldsmith, Oliver Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2009-03)
      For the purposes of this study, I have used a simple economic base model to describe the structure of the Alaska economy.1 In the model each component of the economic base (the economic drivers) supports a certain number of jobs and generates a certain amount of personal income, not only directly but also through indirect and induced effects. All of the jobs and income in the economy are then accounted for when the contribution of each component of the economic base is included. The jobs and income attributed to a component of the economic base represents the potential loss to the economy if that part of the base were to disappear. For example, mining is an important industry in Alaska, consisting almost entirely of primary production for export outside the state. The contribution of the mining sector to total Alaska employment consists of miners as well as workers at Alaskan businesses that supply goods and services to the mining industry and workers at Alaskan businesses that supply goods and services to the families of the miners and workers at the Alaskan supplier businesses. If all of the mines in the state were to close, the loss in jobs and income would include those at the businesses supplying the mines and the families of the workers.
    • Alaskan Bush Justice: Legal Centralism Confronts Social Science Research and Village Alaska [1982 revision]

      Conn, Stephen (Justice Center, University of Alaska Anchorage, 1982-09)
      This paper traces the history of the bush justice system in rural Alaska, describes the relationship between traditional Alaska Native dispute resolution mechanisms and the state criminal justice system, and analyzes bush justice research between 1970 and 1981 and its effects on state agency policies and changes in the rural justice system. Innovations by researchers were well-received by villagers and field-level professionals, but not by agency policymakers. Hence, most reforms made in the 1970s had vanished by the early 1980s. The author concludes that further reforms will be ineffective unless Alaska Natives are drawn into the decisionmaking process as co-equal players negotiating on legal process from positions of power.
    • Alaskan Bush Justice: Legal Centralism Confronts Social Science Research and Village Alaska [original paper]

      Conn, Stephen (Justice Center, University of Alaska Anchorage, 1981-09)
      This paper traces the history of the bush justice system in rural Alaska, describes the relationship between traditional Alaska Native dispute resolution mechanisms and the state criminal justice system, and analyzes bush justice research between 1970 and 1981 and its effects on state agency policies and changes in the rural justice system. Innovations by researchers were well-received by villagers and field-level professionals, but not by agency policymakers. Hence, most reforms made in the 1970s had vanished by the early 1980s. The author concludes that further reforms will be ineffective unless Alaska Natives are drawn into the decisionmaking process as co-equal players negotiating on legal process from positions of power.
    • Alignment of Alaska’s Educational Programs from Pre-School through Graduate Study: A First Look

      McDiarmid, G. Williamson; Hill, Alexandra (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2010-01)
      Too many Alaska students leave formal education unprepared for their next steps in life. Too many drop out of high school; too few high-school graduates go on to post-secondary education; and too few of those who do enroll in post-secondary education graduate in a timely manner. Employers report that a substantial number of young people who enter the work world directly after graduating from high school (or after dropping out) lack the reading, writing, and math skills necessary for many of today’s jobs, even at entry level. Ideally, the various components of the education system would be structured so that as children or young people complete each step, they would be adequately prepared for the next. In practice, this is often not the case. Students arrive at kindergarten and again at college, vocational training, or work unprepared for the challenges they face and without the skills their teachers, professors, or employers expect. Alaska is not alone in these problems, and many states are focusing on alignment as a possible response. Policymakers and others are studying how students progress through the entire education system—from pre-school through college, graduate study, or career training. As defined above, alignment would coordinate the work of institutions providing different levels of education. Educators in K-12 and early childhood programs would agree on what children should know and be able to do when entering kindergarten (or first grade)—and on how those skills and abilities would be taught and assessed. Likewise, employers, institutions of higher education, and K-12 schools would work together to reach similar agreements on what young people need to know to enter the workforce or college. Alignment efforts bring together policymakers and practitioners from all levels of education to identify what needs to be done to achieve this coordination and to oversee the work. The first section of this report looks at alignment of early childhood programs and K-12 education. Why is it important to begin alignment at the level of early childhood education? Research has demonstrated the strong effect of quality early childhood education on later educational outcomes. Among the best-known research is the High/Scope Perry Preschool study, which followed 120 children from the time they attended that preschool in the 1960s, at ages 3 or 4, until they were age 40.1 Schweinhart, et al. (1993) looked at program participants through age 27 and estimated that the program had produced savings to taxpayers of over $7 for each dollar spent. Program participants were less likely to need special education services throughout their school careers, less likely to commit crimes, and less likely to receive welfare—and they alsoearned more and paid higher taxes than non-participants. Other studies have found that children who participate in quality early childhood education programs are less likely to be retained in grade, placed in special education, or drop out of high school (Schweinhart 1994). In Alaska, public early childhood education is limited to federally mandated special education and federally funded (with state supplemental funding) Head Start programs. These programs together enroll about 16% of 3-year-olds and 22% of 4-year-olds in the state. Many more students in urban areas are enrolled in some form of private pre-school. Head start programs exist in more than 75 Alaska communities and are run by 16 different grantees, which have varying degrees of coordination with their local K-12 districts and with each other. The second focus of this report is readiness of Alaska high-school graduates for post-secondary education or work. Alaska’s colleges and universities find that many of their entering students— even those with good grades in high school—aren’t ready for college-level work. Again, national research affirms that Alaska’s problems are not unique. Callan, Finney, Kirst, Usdan, and Venezia (2006) report “The more difficult challenge for students is becoming prepared academically for college coursework. Once students enter college, about half of them learn that they are not prepared for college-level courses. Forty percent of students at four-year institutions and 63 percent at two-year colleges take remedial education. Additionally, high-school students face an incredibly complex system of placement tests and college admissions requirements.” A national survey of 431 employers about workforce readiness found that “When asked to assess new workforce entrants, employers report that many of the new entrants lack skills essential to job success… Over 40 percent (42.4 percent) of employer respondents rate new entrants with a high school diploma as ‘deficient’ in their overall preparation for the entry-level jobs they typically fill. Almost the same percentage (45.6 percent) rate the overall preparation of high school graduate entrants as ‘adequate,’ but almost no one (less than ½ of 1 percent—0.2 percent) rates their overall preparation as ‘excellent.’ ” 2 Anecdotal information from Alaska employers indicates that many young people entering the workforce in Alaska aren’t prepared for work, either. This report brings together available data on the scope of these problems in Alaska and discusses what other states have tried and what we can tell so far about what has worked. We identify areas that need more research and where there may not even be data to conduct research. Finally, we suggest steps the state can undertake now, while conducting research, to fill in the gaps.
    • An Analysis of Outpatient Accident Trends in Two Dry Eskimo Towns as a Measure of Alternative Police Responses to Drunken Behavior

      Conn, Stephen; Boedeker, Bonnie (Justice Center, University of Alaska Anchorage, 1983-03-24)
      Two rural Eskimo towns of approximately 3,000 persons each have banned the sale but not the use of alcoholic beverages in their communities. In the town of Bethel, police pick up intoxicated persons and transport them to a sleep-off and treatment center. In the town of Barrow, police take intoxicated persons into protective custody. Each town uses its police practice as an alternative to arrests for drunken behavior, decriminalized by the 1972 Alaska State Legislature. At least half of the adult population is picked up in each place. The authors seek to measure the impact of these differing approaches on violence related to alcohol use by employing Indian Health Service data in lieu of poorly maintained police data.
    • Anchorage Community Survey 2007 Survey Sampling Design: Power and Sample Size

      ; Evans, Shel Llee (University of Alaska Anchorage Justice Center, 2006-12)
      This working paper documents the power analysis, literature review, and precision considerations contemplated in designing the Anchorage Community Survey’s (ACS) 2007 sampling design. The ACS will obtain at least 30 completed surveys from individuals in each of the 55 census tracts that make up the Anchorage Municipality, allowing us to discern a fairly small effect size of 0.30 with our smallest anticipated intraclass correlation and a moderate effect size of 0.40 with our largest anticipated intraclass correlation, both at 0.80 power level. This cluster sample size and number of clusters should yield sufficient precision to allow good estimation of variance components and standard errors, acceptable reliability estimates, and reasonable aggregated measures of constructed neighborhood variables from individual survey item responses.
    • Assessing Ecological Risk of Proposed Mines: Can Valid Assessments be Done Pre-Design?

      Loeffler, Bob (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2012-01)
      Large resource development projects take years to plan. During that planning time, the public frequently debates the potential benefits and risks of a project, but with incomplete information. In these debates, some people might assert that a project would have great benefits, while others might assert that it would certainly harm the environment. At the same time, the developer will be assessing different designs, before finally submitting one to the government permitting agencies for evaluation and public scrutiny. For large mines in Alaska, the government permitting process takes years, and often includes an ecological risk assessment. This assessment is a data-intensive, scientific evaluation of the project’s potential ecological risks, based on the specific details of the project. Recently, some organizations have tried to bring scientific rigor to the pre-design public discussions, especially for mining projects, through a pre-design risk ecological risk assessment. This is a scientific assessment of the environmental risks a project might pose, before the details of project design, risk-prevention, and risk-mitigation measures are known. It is important to know whether pre-design risk assessment is a viable method for drawing conclusions about risks of projects. If valid risk predictions can be made at that stage, then people or governments would not have to wait for either a design or for the detailed evaluation that is done during the permitting process. Such an approach could be used to short cut permitting. It could affect project financing; it could affect the schedule, priority, or even the resources that governments put toward evaluating a project. But perhaps most important: in an age where public perceptions are an important influence on a project’s viability and government permitting decisions, a realistic risk assessment can be used to focus public attention on the facts. But if the methodology is flawed and results in poor quality information and unsupportable conclusions, then a pre-design risk assessment could unjustifiably either inflame or calm the public, depending on what it predicts.
    • Attitudes towards land use and development in the Mat-Su: Empirical evidence on economic values of ecosystem services

      Schwörer, Tobias (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, 2014-04-25)
      In communities that largely depend on the extraction of natural resources, attitudes towards conservation and development may seem at odds or particularly rigid. With an unprecedented wealth of natural capital, a growing mining sector, strong oil and gas industry, and a politically conservative population, Alaska serves as a case study to measure such attitudes. This research was motivated by a lack of primary ecosystem service valuation studies in Alaska that could be used to assess the public’s perceived value of ecosystem services in order to guide future land use decisions and incentivize land use decisions that minimize negative externalities. A choice experiment was conducted with 224 households in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, the fastest growing region in Alaska and one of the fastest growing regions in the U.S. Rapid development with few restrictions has led to changes for local ecosystems particularly important to salmon, negative effects on access related to recreation and tourism, and caused conversion of valuable farmland. Study results show that attitudes and values vary regarding future land use and economic development efforts. On average, policy action to improve conditions for local salmon stocks are most valuable to local residents followed by protecting farm and ranch lands as well as public access to recreation sites. Conversely, residents show negative preferences towards rapid population growth and developing local mining, oil and gas, and timber resources but support developing a professional and technical services sector. The quantified welfare changes related to different development scenarios show that focusing on conserving valuable ecosystem services is in the public’s best interest.