Now showing items 21-40 of 2307

    • Measured Energy Savings from Weatherization Alaska vs. National Results

      Colt, Steve (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1994)
      This memorandum reviews the differences in measured energy savings from 102 Alaska weatherized homes (ISER 1993) compared with savings from a "cold-climate" region of the United States (ORNL 1993). The National study found a significantly higher level of gross energy saving (12.5%) in its sample of 1040 gas-heated homes than the Alaska study found in is sample of 102 homes. Alaska' lower level of percentage gas savings, relative to the US cold-climate region, cannot be attributed to differences in sampling, data retention, or analytical technique using PRISM. When measured by gas consumption per degree-day, the Alaska sample of weatherized homes appears to have higher thermal integrity prior to weatherization. From different starting points, both Alaska and US single-family homes appear to be achieving a post-weatherization thermal integrity of about .155 cf per degree-day. Alaska mobile homes reach a roughly similar final level of .142 ccf per HDD, commensurate with their smaller size.
    • Financial Performance of Alaska Native Regional Corporations

      Colt, Steve (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1991)
      This edition of the Alaska Review of Social and Economic Conditions examines one narrow measure of how well Alaska Native Corporations have done in managing nearly 1 billion dollars and 44 million acres for the benefit of their shareholders. It describes the financial performance of the regional corporations from their beginnings in 1973 through 1990. We also report available information on shareholder employment. The endowment of natural resources in each region explains a lot about the relative financial success of the corporations: some regions just have more marketable resources than others. But aside from the differences attributable to random resource distribution, we can make several points about the corporations' cumulative financial performance over this period.
    • Tracking the Structure of the Alaska Economy: The ISER MAP Database

      Goldsmith, Scott; Hull, Teresa (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1991)
      This document is predominantly tabulated data with no interpretive or contextual information.
    • Kodiak Population Projections

      Goldsmith, Scott; Hill, Alexandra (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1997)
      The City of Kodiak asked the Institute of Social and Economic Research to generate population projections through 2020 for the city and the adjacent area (Service Area l) served by city sewer. The projections currently used in planning a new wastewater treatment facility extremely high to many knowledgeable observers. ISER reviewed the existing population projections and generated an independent set of projections based on our explicit analysis of the Kodiak economy and demography. In the projections for Kodiak Island Borough. tourism and seafood are the driving factors in explaining projected population growth. Other wage and salary and federal government categories also drive some growth, but are less important.
    • Structural Analysis of the Alaska Economy: A Perspective from 1997

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1997)
      The structure of the Alaska economy is reflected in the share of personal income and employment attributable to each of the BASIC industrial sectors and other external sources of household purchasing power. We identify twelve activities upon which the size and composition of the Alaska economy depends and trace their growth over time. Although an oversimplification of reality, the economic base model is a useful tool for studying the structure of the Alaska economy. In the economic base model, BASIC activities are the source of economic growth for the regional economy. Our analysis offers a consistent methodology but is not a detailed historical investigation of each individual industry. A more comprehensive analysis would further refine the attributions we have made, but we feel that the representation of the structure of the economy presented in this report is valid and useful as a description of the economy.
    • Safe Landing: Charting a Flight Path Through the Clouds

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1999)
      Everybody’s got an idea about where to find the roughly $1 billion we’ll need to balance the state budget every year from now on. It’s hard to evaluate these proposals, because the budget is complicated—and it’s hard to imagine how much $1 billion really is. This paper looks first at why some popular ideas can’t raise $1 billion a year, although they can certainly help. Then, in the foldout, we try to help Alaskans see through the clouds obscuring the “Safe Landing” strategy, which we first talked about in 1992. This strategy says that dealing with such a big deficit requires using a combination (and there are a number of possible combinations) of budget cuts, windfalls, Permanent Fund earnings, new taxes, and economic development.
    • Safe Landing: A Fiscal Strategy for the 1990s

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1992)
      Alaska is poised for either a safe landing or a nose dive. Whether we land safely or crash depends on how Alaskans deal with declining oil revenue. Since oil began flowing from the Prudhoe Bay field 15 years ago, Alaska’s government and economy have come to depend on state taxes and royalties from oil production. Oil revenue makes up 85 percent of the state’s general revenue, and it creates 30 percent of Alaskans’ personal income. But North Slope production is now declining as the giant Prudhoe Bay field ages. Luckily, Alaska has the resources it needs to make the difficult transition. This paper outlines a comprehensive but flexible strategy for moving Alaska through the 1990s with a minimum of economic damage and into the next century with a government that is smaller but still able to provide essential services and support a healthy economy.
    • Review of the Alaska Health Facility Input Price Index

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1994)
      The purpose of the Alaska Health Facility Input Price Index (AHFIPI) is to describe and estimate the cost inflation in hospital and nursing home services in Alaska. If the Alaska economy is expected to grow more slowly than the US economy it does not seem reasonable for the Alaska Health Facilities Input Price Index to forecast higher inflation than for the US for the years 1994 through 1997. Since the other proxy variables in the index are regional or national, the faster rate of inflation for the Alaska index is entirely attributable to the higher predicted AHE inflation rate. Other evidence suggests that the trend in Alaska costs is to increase more slowly that the national average and that this projection of more rapid inflation is inconsistent with that historical evidence. These data sources suggest that overall prices, Alaska health costs, and wagerates in general are rising less rapidly than the US average and that these trends will continue unless some can be identified which would reverse them.
    • Population, Employment, and Income Projections for Alaska Census Areas

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1998)
      These projections have been prepared to accompany the statewide and regional projections prepared by ISER in March 1997 for the Alaska Department of Transportation. Those projections appeared in a report entitled Alaska's Economy and Population, 1959-2020. This document contains tabulated data with very little interpretive or contextual information. Please see the aforementioned report for these details.
    • Permanent Fund Policy Questions and Informal Review of Proposals for Change

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1997)
      The growing importance of the Permanent Fund in the fiscal, economic, political and social life of the state requires that we periodically review how it is working, not necessarily to change it, but to ensure that it is continuing to do what is best for Alaska. This paper reviews recent proposals for changes in Permanent Fund policies using a series of questions that each stakeholder should consider. The answers to these questions should help to evaluate those proposals and stimulate thought about the role of the Permanent Fund in Alaska's future. Prepared for Principles and Interests: The Permanent Fund and Alaska's Future, a conference sponsored by the Alaska Humanities Forum.
    • Northstar Oil Field: Economic Impact Analysis

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1998)
      This analysis explores the economic impacts associated with the development of the Northstar oil field on Alaska's North Slope. It is based on the most current information about the project and updates an earlier study by the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) entitled The Northstar Project:Economic Impacts, published in April 1996. The analysis is based in large part on information provided to ISER by British Petroleum Exploration (Alaska), Inc. Since the project is under continuous review and subject to regulatory and judicial delays of uncertain length the parameters of the project are subject to change. However the general description of the economic effects of the project are unlikely to change dramatically as evidenced by the general agreement regarding project economics in this analysis and the prior study. The general methodology of this analysis is similar to that outlined in the prior ISER study entitled Marginal Oil Field Development: The Economic Impact, published in June 1995.
    • Marginal Oil Field Development: The Economic Impact

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1995)
      The purpose of this study is to provide a framework for analysis of the economic effect of new, small marginal oil fields which may be typical of new petroleum industry activity in Alaska. The analysis is generic and hopefully will lead to more detailed and specific studies where appropriate. The study examines a hypothetical marginal oil field on the North Slope with anticipated recoverable reserves of 100 million barrels of oil. This document was developed for presentation to the State of Alaska Oil and Gas Policy Council.
    • Kodiak: Characteristics of the Support Sector Economy

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1998)
      We compare the support sector of the Kodiak economy to other similarly sized markets in Alaska using employment and sales receipt information available from the state and federal governments. The employment analysis suggests that Kodiak may be underserved, particularly in certain service sectors. In contrast the sales receipt information suggests that the support sector of the Kodiak economy is comparable with similarly sized markets in Alaska. This analysis uses Central Place Theory to understand why the number and variety of businesses varies among communities. In this study we compare the trade and service activities in different Alaska communities using a variety of measures of both activity levels and market size.
    • Ketchikan Public Utilities: Electric Load Growth Study

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1998)
      Ketchikan Public Utility (KPU) asked the Institute of Social and Economic Research to project electricity sales and generation requirements in Ketchikan in the coming years. Rather than one set of projections we have estimated a range of likely future growth, given different assumptions about important factors influencing the economy and electricity use. Throughout that range of likely growth - the LOW, BASE, and HIGH cases - we project that electricity generation by KPU will temporarily drop but subsequently begin growing again, although at a slower rate than in the past.
    • ISER Alaska Input-Output Model

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1998)
      The primary purposes of the ISER Alaska input-output model are to measure the economic impact and economic importance of selected activities on the Alaska economy and to measure the economic impact of changes in the level of these activities. A related purpose is to study the structure of the Alaska economy. The input-output model can be used to conduct both economic impact analysis and economic significance analysis. For example, the model could be used to estimate the economic importance of a new ski resort in South Central Alaska. The change in final demand represented by the new resort would determine its economic impact on the region. The change in final demand would come primarily from non-resident visitors who would be attracted to Alaska to use the new resort. This working paper outlines various aspects of the model.
    • Implications of Oil Supply Uncertainty on a Small Oil-Producing Regional Economy

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1994)
      The state of Alaska has an economic and fiscal structure that is unique among the states. The petroleum industry, including exploration and development, production, transportation, and refining, accounts for nearly half of gross state product (the state equivalent of gross domestic product). In theory it is a simple matter to devise a rule that has the dual effects of neutralizing cycles in economic activity associated with the life cycle of petroleum exploitation and maximizing the benefits to residents from the expenditure of the petroleum wealth. Of the many complicating factors that make it difficult to devise and apply such a rule is the uncertainty regarding the size of the endowment, which is also one of the most interesting. How much it is appropriate to spend today depends directly on the size of the endowment not yet collected. This paper reviews a model for answering the public policy question of when to spend, with a special focus on how uncertainty complicates the debate. It also looks at the process of developing a plan for implementing the model within the context of the Alaska political and fiscal structure. Presented at the Second OPEC/Alaska Energy Conference in Anchorage, Alaska on May 7, 1994.
    • How Are We Doing? Monitoring Alaska's Fiscal Condition

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1994)
      Alaska’s government has been down on its luck this year, with low oil prices, a big deficit, and legal disputes over the budget. Despite all that, Alaska still has substantial assets. The state’s share of Alaska oil reserves is worth—even at low oil prices—about $16 billion. The Permanent Fund has a balance of $13 billion and earned $1 billion last year. Pages 2 and 3 of this summary examine what is happening to the state’s assets—and why preserving and building them is so important. The foldout details the risks of relying exclusively on cash reserves. Page 4 provides a simple checklist for monitoring the state’s progress toward the long-term budget strategy called the Safe Landing.
    • Homer Fiscal Planning Model: Background Report

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1992)
      Homer is a first-class city of about 4,000 residents, located in the Kenai Peninsula Borough. The city provides a variety of local government services including police and fire protection, roads maintenance, and parks and recreation as well as a library, but excluding schools (provided by the Borough). These services and general government expenses are financed primarily through sales and property taxes and transfers from the state. City expenditures increased rapidly through most of the 1980s, interrupted only during the recession years of 1988 and 1989. An economic boom occurring at the end of the decade has now passed, and the ability of the city to fund services is being constrained both by the local economic base·and the budget problems facing state government. The 1992 Homer budget reflects a sharp reduction from the previous year, with departments planning layoffs and service cutbacks. Aggressive fiscal planning in future years will be required to minimize the negative effects of budget shortfalls in the coming years. This document provides information to assist the community in addressing this issue.
    • Hatcher Pass Ski Resort, Phase 1: Economic Significance

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1998)
      Hatcher Pass Ski Resort, Phase 1: Economic Significance
    • From Oil to Assets: Managing Alaska's New Wealth

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1998)
      Low oil prices always capture headlines in Alaska, because the state government has run mostly on oil revenues for 20 years. So the slide in oil prices this year has once again made us think Alaska is becoming poor, and we worry about more budget cuts and an economic downturn. But two big changes in recent years make Alaska’s current fiscal condition better than it might seem. Sustainable revenues (and spending) are higher than we estimated a few years ago. And with a growing share of revenues from asset earnings, the state has the chance to make its year-to-year revenue flow more stable. Still, despite this good news, problems remain. The state’s fiscal policy has been to divide general purpose revenues into two categories: oil revenues have mostly paid General Fund expenses, and Permanent Fund earnings have been used to pay dividends to Alaskans (as well as to inflation-proof and build the fund balance). Low oil prices gouged a hole in the General Fund budget in 1998, while a strong stock market boosted Permanent Fund earnings. In the following pages we discuss in more detail the good financial news for Alaska and how we estimate “sustainable” spending. We also look at the choices Alaska has for keeping its finances healthy in the long run.