Scenarios use to engage scientists and decision-makers in a changing Arctic

Abstract

Scenarios provide a framework to develop adaptive Arctic policies that consider the best available science to address complex relationships and key uncertainties in drivers of change. These drivers may encompass biophysical factors such as climate change, socioeconomic drivers, and wild- cards that represent low likelihood but influential events. Three spatially explicit scenarios were identified with respect to the focal question: What is the future of energy development, resource extraction and supporting activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through 2040? The NSSI science needs will guide recommendations for future research and monitoring and could improve policy guidance.