A Synthesis of Terrestrial Carbon Balance of Alaska and Projected Changes in the 21st Century: Implications for Climate Policy and Carbon Management

Abstract

To better understand how carbon responses to changes in climate and other drivers in Alaska might influence national climate and carbon management policies, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the USDA Forest Service and university scientists, has conducted a comprehensive assessment of the historical (1960-2009) and projected (2010-2099) carbon balance for Alaska. This assessment of carbon dynamics in Alaska includes (1) syntheses of soil, vegetation, and surface water carbon stocks and fluxes in Alaska, and (2) state of the art models of fire dynamics, vegetation change, forest management, permafrost dynamics, and upland, wetland, and surface water ecosystem carbon dynamics. Here we report on progress in the soils synthesis, fire and vegetation dynamics synthesis, and syntheses of upland, wetland, and inland waters components. The terrestrial reporting regions for soil, upland, and wetland components of this assessment are based on the four large terrestrial Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC) in Alaska: (1) the Arctic, (2) the Western Alaska, (3) the Northwest Boreal, and (4) the North Pacific. The reporting regions for the inland waters’ component of this assessment are based on the six main hydrologic regions of Alaska: the Southeast, the South-Central, Southwest, Yukon, Northwest and Arctic Slope.