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    Emerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019

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    Author
    Berman, Matthew
    Schmidt, Jennifer
    Bhatt, Uma S.
    Lader, Rick T.
    Walsh, John E.
    Bieniek, Peter A.
    Thoman, Richard L.
    Borries-Strigle, Cecilia
    Bulock, Kristi
    Chriest, Jonathan
    Hahn, Micah
    Hendricks, Amy S.
    Jandt, Randi
    Little, Joseph
    McEvoy, Daniel
    Moore, Chris
    Rupp, T. Scott
    Stevens, Eric
    Strader, Heidi
    Waigl, Christine F.
    White, James
    York, Alison
    Ziel, Robert
    Show allShow less
    Keyword
    boreal forest; wildland fire; climate change; drought; PM2.5; Buildup Index; SPEI; RCP 8.5; LENS; temperature; precipitation
    Metadata
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    URI
    https://doi.org/10.3390/land10010082; http://hdl.handle.net/11122/11849
    Abstract
    The late-season extreme fire activity in Southcentral Alaska during 2019 was highly unusual and consequential. Firefighting operations had to be extended by a month in 2019 due to the extreme conditions of hot summer temperature and prolonged drought. The ongoing fires created poor air quality in the region containing most of Alaska’s population, leading to substantial impacts to public health. Suppression costs totaled over $70 million for Southcentral Alaska. This study’s main goals are to place the 2019 season into historical context, provide an attribution analysis, and assess future changes in wildfire risk in the region. The primary tools are meteorological observations and climate model simulations from the NCAR CESM Large Ensemble (LENS). The 2019 fire season in Southcentral Alaska included the hottest and driest June–August season over the 1979–2019 period. The LENS simulation analysis suggests that the anthropogenic signal of increased fire risk had not yet emerged in 2019 because of the CESM’s internal variability, but that the anthropogenic signal will emerge by the 2040–2080 period. The effect of warming temperatures dominates the effect of enhanced precipitation in the trend towards increased fire risk.
    Date
    2021-01-17
    Source
    Land
    Publisher
    MDPI
    Type
    Report
    Peer-Reviewed
    Yes
    Citation
    Bhatt,U.S.;Lader,R.T.; Walsh, J.E.; Bieniek, P.A.; Thoman, R.; Berman, M.; Borries-Strigle, C.; Bulock, K.; Chriest, J.; Hahn, M.; et al. Emerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019. Land 2021, 10, 82. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10010082
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