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dc.contributor.authorBerman, Matthew
dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Jennifer
dc.contributor.authorBhatt, Uma S.
dc.contributor.authorLader, Rick T.
dc.contributor.authorWalsh, John E.
dc.contributor.authorBieniek, Peter A.
dc.contributor.authorThoman, Richard L.
dc.contributor.authorBorries-Strigle, Cecilia
dc.contributor.authorBulock, Kristi
dc.contributor.authorChriest, Jonathan
dc.contributor.authorHahn, Micah
dc.contributor.authorHendricks, Amy S.
dc.contributor.authorJandt, Randi
dc.contributor.authorLittle, Joseph
dc.contributor.authorMcEvoy, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorMoore, Chris
dc.contributor.authorRupp, T. Scott
dc.contributor.authorStevens, Eric
dc.contributor.authorStrader, Heidi
dc.contributor.authorWaigl, Christine F.
dc.contributor.authorWhite, James
dc.contributor.authorYork, Alison
dc.contributor.authorZiel, Robert
dc.date.accessioned2021-01-23T06:23:41Z
dc.date.available2021-01-23T06:23:41Z
dc.date.issued2021-01-17
dc.identifier.citationBhatt,U.S.;Lader,R.T.; Walsh, J.E.; Bieniek, P.A.; Thoman, R.; Berman, M.; Borries-Strigle, C.; Bulock, K.; Chriest, J.; Hahn, M.; et al. Emerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019. Land 2021, 10, 82. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10010082
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.3390/land10010082
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11122/11849
dc.description.abstractThe late-season extreme fire activity in Southcentral Alaska during 2019 was highly unusual and consequential. Firefighting operations had to be extended by a month in 2019 due to the extreme conditions of hot summer temperature and prolonged drought. The ongoing fires created poor air quality in the region containing most of Alaska’s population, leading to substantial impacts to public health. Suppression costs totaled over $70 million for Southcentral Alaska. This study’s main goals are to place the 2019 season into historical context, provide an attribution analysis, and assess future changes in wildfire risk in the region. The primary tools are meteorological observations and climate model simulations from the NCAR CESM Large Ensemble (LENS). The 2019 fire season in Southcentral Alaska included the hottest and driest June–August season over the 1979–2019 period. The LENS simulation analysis suggests that the anthropogenic signal of increased fire risk had not yet emerged in 2019 because of the CESM’s internal variability, but that the anthropogenic signal will emerge by the 2040–2080 period. The effect of warming temperatures dominates the effect of enhanced precipitation in the trend towards increased fire risk.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThe National Science Foundation (#OIA-1753748), the State of Alaska, the United States Geological Survey (G17AC00363), and the Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center (G17AC00213) provided support for this study. NOAA supported this work through grants #NA16OAR4310162 (R.T., J.E.W., A.Y.) and #NA16OAR4310142 (U.S.B., P.A.B.)en_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherMDPIen_US
dc.sourceLanden_US
dc.subjectboreal forest; wildland fire; climate change; drought; PM2.5; Buildup Index; SPEI; RCP 8.5; LENS; temperature; precipitationen_US
dc.titleEmerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019en_US
dc.typeReporten_US
dc.description.peerreviewYesen_US
refterms.dateFOA2021-01-23T06:23:41Z
dc.identifier.journalLanden_US


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