Keywordenergy use model
transportation fuel use
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AbstractWe have constructed a simple but comprehensive village energy use model that includes space heating and transportation fuel use as well as electricity. Because people in isolated remote northern communities pay about 2/3 of their overall energy bills for heat and transportation (WH Pacific et al. 2012), knowledge of overall energy demand by major end use is important when considering energy systems that can make the best use of efficiency and renewables as resources to offset costly fossil fuels. Previous work (Devine & Baring-Gould 2004) provides community planners and policy makers with a good tool for estimating community electricity demand. This paper builds on that work with an integrated model that can be used to estimate overall village energy usage based on a relatively small number of socioeconomic characteristics, such as population; number of residential, commercial and public facilities; housing and building stock characteristics; and transportation patterns and equipment types. The Alaska Village Energy Model (AVEM) model uses the best available primary data from recent collection efforts, and can easily incorporate new data that may become available."
PublisherInstitute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska
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Development of scalable energy distribution models to evaluate the impacts of renewable energy on food, energy, and water system infrastructures in remote Arctic microgrids of AlaskaKarenzi, Justus; Wies, Richard; Huang, Daisy; Al-Badri, Maher (2020-08)Experience and observations from remote Alaska communities have shown that energy is inarguably at the center of food, energy, and water (FEW) security. The availability of potable water, fresh produce, food storage, or processed seafood ultimately depends on a reliable and adequate energy supply. For most communities, diesel fuel is the primary source of power, which comes at high cost because of the logistics associated with importing the fuel to these relatively isolated communities. Integrating locally available renewable energy resources not only enhances energy supply, but the impacts further translate to food and water security in remote microgrids. The focus of this work is to investigate how intermittent renewable energy sources impact community level food and water infrastructure systems in a remote Arctic microgrid. Energy distribution models are mathematically developed in MATLAB® Simulink® to identify, describe, and evaluate the connections between intermittent renewable resources and the FEW loads. Energy requirements of public water systems, greenhouses, cold storage units, seafood processing loads, and modular water and food system loads are evaluated. Then energy sources including solar PV, solar thermal collectors, wind, hydro, energy storage, and diesel electric generation are modeled and validated. Finally, simulations of scenarios using distributed energy resources to serve water and food infrastructure loads are carried out including the incorporation of dispatchable loads. The results indicate that the impacts of renewable energy on FEW infrastructure systems are highly seasonal, primarily because of the variability of renewable resources. The outcome of this work helps in gaining firsthand insights into FEW system dynamics in a remote islanded microgrid setting.
Energy Civilization: Civilization's Ultimate Energy ForecastReynolds, Douglas (None, 2020-06-16)This treatise is an addendum to Reynolds’ (2011). It looks at the U.S. shale-oil production trend, and specifically at the Hubbert peak of that trend. Simmons (2005), Deffeyes (2001), Hubbert, (1962), Norgaard (1990) and Campbell (1997), among others show how there can be a peak in oil production. Reynolds (2002, 2009) explains the economic and cost theory for how and why the Hubbert Curve works, including how the information and depletion effects create such a curve. Nevertheless, Maugeri (2007), Adelman and Lynch (1997), and Lynch (2002) suggest that one should never curve fit an oil production trend, contrary to most economic disciplines where curve fitting using econometrics is the norm. Although, as of early 2020 the COVID-19 recession is greatly affecting petroleum markets. Nevertheless, the Hubbert supply trend is relevant. Also, Reynolds and Umekwe (2019) show that shale-gas and shale-oil can be compliments or substitutes in production. Based on that relationship, once the U.S. shale-oil peak occurs, it may be the world’s ultimate Hubbert peak with much smaller and lower Hubbert cycles thereafter. Worldwide petroleum institutions and strategies will also change. This treatise estimates a U.S. shale-oil Hubbert peak, scrutinizes the Hubbert related theories and explores oil price forecasts, taking into account medium run COVID-19 oil demand effects.
Renewable energy development in Alaska: policy implications for the development of renewable energy for remote areas of the circumpolar ArcticHoldmann, Gwen Pamela; Johnson, Ronald; Peterson, Rorik; Greenberg, Joshua; Sfraga, Mike (2019-12)The territories that comprise the Arctic region are part of some of wealthiest and most advanced countries on the planet; yet, rural Alaska, northern Canada, the Russian Far East and Greenland--characterized by off-grid communities, regional grids, and higher degrees of energy insecurity--have more in common with the developing world than the southern regions of their own country. This thesis explains this paradox of energy development in the Circumpolar North and tackles the issue of developing renewable energy in remote areas where technical and socioeconomic barriers are significant. The primary research questions are two-fold: 1) Why did the Alaska electrical system develop as a non-integrated patchwork of regional and isolated grids? and 2) What are the major factors in Alaska that have resulted in a greater uptake of renewable energy systems for remote communities, compared to other similar places in the Arctic? This thesis demonstrates that state-building theory provides a cogent framework to understand the context of electrical build-out in the Circumpolar North. A major finding of this thesis is that the buildout of electric infrastructure in the non-Nordic countries, including Alaska, exemplifies a process of incomplete nation-building. Interconnected regional grids, where they exist, are largely due to the twin national priorities in infrastructure development in the north: extracting natural resources and enhancing national security. This thesis also draws on sociotechnical transition theory to explain why Alaska exhibits such high levels of energy innovation when compared to other similar regions across the Arctic. This research concludes that drivers such as extremely high energy costs, a highly deregulated utility market with dozens of certificated utilities, state investment in infrastructure, and modest subsidies that create a technological niche where renewable energy projects are cost-competitive at current market prices have spurred energy innovation throughout Alaska's communities, remote or otherwise. Many of the evolving technical strategies and lessons learned from renewable integration projects in Alaska's remote islanded microgrids are directly applicable to project development in other markets. Despite differences in climate and geography, lessons learned in Alaska could prove invaluable in increasing resiliency and driving down energy costs in remote communities world-wide.