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    Climate change, moose, and subsistence harvest in Arctic Alaska

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    Author
    Zhou, Jiake
    Chair
    Kielland, Knut
    Kofinas, Gary
    Committee
    Tape, Ken D.
    Prugh, Laura
    Keyword
    Moose
    Habitat
    Shrubs
    Global warming
    Climate
    Moose hunting
    Alaska
    North Slope
    Nuiqsut
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11122/12325
    Abstract
    Arctic climate is resulting in transformative changes to Arctic social-ecological systems. With warming-induced increases in tall-shrubs, moose are expanding their range northwards. However, the socio-economic implications of this ecological change are unclear. Using field surveys, interviews, and modeling, I assessed the impact of climate change on moose harvest by hunters of Nuiqsut, an Inupiat community in arctic Alaska. Based on a 568 km transect of field sampling on shrubs and herbivore browsing levels, I estimated that the minimum shrub height for moose occurrence was ≥ 81 cm (95% CI: 65 - 96 cm). Patterns of moose geographic distribution mirrored tall-shrub distribution in arctic riparian areas. I also found that snowshoe hares may impact moose habitat via potential resource competition. Habitat suitability models, using Maxent and simpler temperature-threshold models, predicted that moose habitat may more than double by 2099 if current warming trends continue. The model outputs also suggested that climate warming will likely increase habitat connectivity, enhancing range expansion of moose in the Arctic. Finally, I used a coupled social-ecological systems (SES) framework to assess the implications of changes in tall-shrub habitat to moose harvest under future warming. Despite the expected increase in moose habitat and distribution, simulations of an agent-based model showed that the future may not translate into greater harvest opportunities, largely due to the limitation of river navigability for hunters. These findings provide an example in which rapid landscape and resource change may not translate into increased harvest. The integrated assessment with a SES framework revealed new and surprising outcomes, not evident when evaluating social and ecological components separately. This analysis highlighted how a coupled social-ecological framework can be used to assess the effects of climate change on ecosystem services.
    Description
    Dissertation (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2020
    Table of Contents
    Chapter 1. Introduction -- Chapter 2. The role of vegetation structure in controlling distributions of vertebrate herbivores in Arctic Alaska -- Chapter 3. Enhanced shrub growth in the Arctic increases habitat connectivity for browsing herbivores -- Chapter 4 Climate Change, Moose, and Subsistence Harvest: An Assessment of Nuiqsuit, Alaska -- Chapter 5 Conclusions.
    Date
    2020-08
    Type
    Dissertation
    Collections
    Biological Sciences

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