Childcare Assistance Programs: Caseload Analysis

Abstract

The Department of Community and Regional Affairs provides child care assistance programs which served almost 4,000 children in FY93. The total demand for these programs has proven to be quite volatile during the past three years. This volatility causes problems for funding agencies and legislators because funds must be committed more than one year before managers learn what the actual demand will be. As a result, waiting lists have increased rapidly at times during FY91, FY93, and FY94 as demand outstripped available funding. During at least one period, however, funding was more than sufficient to meet short-term demand and monies were lapsed, making it difficult to serve all clients when demand picked up again. In this research memorandum we examine the data on monthly and annual demand for the four major child care programs administered by the department. We look at overall growth trends, sources of volatility, and we develop a simple statistical model that explains much of the observed changes in demand.