Electric Load Forecasts for Haines, Chilkat Valley, and Kake, Alaska

Abstract

This report presents separate electric load forecasts for the following areas of upper Southeast Alaska: 1. Haines area (entire service territory of Haines Light & Power (HL&P)); 2. Upper Chilkat Valley (served by Tlingit-Haida Regional Electrical Authority (THREA)); 3. Community of Kake (served by THREA). The Haines and Upper Chilkat Valley areas are contiguous and form a common load center stretching along the Haines Highway from the City of Haines at the head of Lynn Canal to the Canadian border. The Kake load center is located 200 miles to the south, on the northwest corner of Kupreanof Island. In addition we report an estimated load for the village of Klukwan (located within the Chilkat Valley geographic area). We also present a compilation of existing load projections for the communities of Angoon, Hoonah, Juneau, Sitka, and Tenakee Springs. These projections were prepared by others and are reported here for use in assessing possible intertie projects that might serve the communities. The report is organized as follows. The rest of this chapter discusses in general terms how the forecasts were produced. Chapters two through four present the individual load forecasts for each community. Appendix A summarizes the existing load projections for other Southeast communities. Appendix B lays out the assumptions underlying the baseline economic growth projections for the region. Appendix C provides a limited comparison of recent actual loads in Ketchikan and Petersburg with those forecast five years ago using similar methods as we employ here. Appendix D contains comments received on the draft report.