Salmon Industry: Twenty-seven Predictions for the Future

Abstract

What does the future hold for the salmon industry? The past decade has brought dramatic change. What further changes might we expect in the coming decade, and beyond? This paper was prepared for submission to the Alaska Fisherman's Journal. It is a revised version of a paper prepared originally for a presentation to the Northwest Salmon Canners Association in October of 1997. I have offered a brief discussion of the reasoning underlying each prediction. A far more detailed discussion of the arguments for and against each prediction would be possible--and preferable--but space here does not permit that. A stronger case can be made for some predictions than for others. Keep in mind that these are not predictions for what will happen this year or next year, but rather for changes that are likely to occur gradually over the next decade and beyond.