Drainage Pierces ANWR in Alaska Study Scenario

Abstract

A hypothetical scenario of petroleum industry activities adjacent to the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) suggests that development from leases under State of Alaska jurisdiction could drain reservoirs that extend under ANWR. Anticipation of such drainage might in turn trigger Congressional authorization for limited surface development of trans-boundary fields. This article provides an overview of 5 scenarios developed for an interdisciplinary study of community sustainability in the Arctic. Forty year scenarios are not offered as predictions, but as "science fiction" - stories combining the best available scientific information and a set of fictional but plausible assumptions to explore implication of a range of plausible outcomes. The final scenario hinges on assumptions about continuing trends in technology that reduce future development costs and surface impacts.