Application of Marginal Analysis Using a Decision Tree to Produce an Architectural Magazine

Abstract

Decision tree analysis is typically used to provide quantitative cost benefit analysis of uncertainty associated with options to achieve project objectives. A project to apply marginal analysis using a decision tree to produce an architectural magazine was undertaken to test the value of using this approach for what-if analysis applied to critical risk, quality, schedule, and cost management decisions in that application. Project research included survey to understand stakeholder preferences for content, quality, and distribution of an architectural magazine. Additionally, literature reviews, project observations and interviews with subject matter experts provided insights into the use of decision tree analysis for this application. Marginal analysis using a decision tree was used for key decisions in the planning, printing, and content preparation phases of the magazine project to determine the cost benefit of different options. Key deliverables produced by the project were a decision tree template, risk register for marginal analysis and well documented lessons learned for the planning and content preparation phases of the magazine production. Outcomes can be applied to follow on phases of the magazine production including marketing, publishing, and distribution optimizing decisions.