RSS 1.0Natural Resources
Recent Submissions
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Training the next generation of climate science integrators: lessons from the Landscape Conservation CooperativesScience that can be readily applied to policy or decision-making is a critical component of adapting to the climate emergency. Boundary spanning facilitates the creation of credible, relevant, and legitimate science for use in policy and decision making. Individuals who are adept at navigating the interface between science and decision making (referred to as "boundary spanners") are crucial in developing science that fits the needs of managers. Though the attributes and skills needed to be an effective boundary spanner are well-defined, individuals are not often trained for these roles. This study incorporates two sets of interviews conducted with employees and affiliates of the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), a boundary spanning organization that was administered by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service between 2010 and 2017. Participants across the LCC Network were asked which training they considered to be most effective in their role as a boundary spanner, what changes resulted from that training, and if they had been trained in co-production of knowledge or boundary spanning. Participants from the five Alaskan LCCs who attended a science communication workshop in 2015 were asked about their job tasks, science communication barriers, and goals within their LCC. Participants cited a number of different trainings that they considered to be effective. Trainings involving decision theory and peer-to-peer learning opportunities were referenced slightly more frequently than other trainings. Changes to the strategic plan and overall direction of the organization was the most often cited training outcome. Capacity (funding, time, or skills) was the most frequently cited barrier to science communication among the Alaskan LCCs. Small boundary-spanning organizations may benefit from increasing capacity by hiring individuals who already possess necessary skills, or by focusing on science translation rather than generating new science. Boundary spanners should be encouraged to access peer-to-peer learning environments and training in decision making.
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Assessing utilitarian wildlife value orientations of Alaska residents: an urban and rural perspective"A large body of literature supports value theory as an integral component to the management of natural resources. Value theory provides managers with an effective tool for natural resource allocation and stakeholder mitigation by predicting attitudes and behaviors of populations. This study explored the protection or use wildlife value orientation dimension of 2,264 Alaskans with an emphasis on comparing urban and rural populations, and new and long term residents. This study also investigated relationships among value orientations, demographic characteristics, and outdoor activity participation. Data were collected using a mail survey sent to a random sample of 10,003 people registered to vote in Alaska. In an effort to achieve adequate representation from rural Alaskans, the sample was stratified into five geographic regions, with a goal of receiving at least 400 returned surveys from each region. As hypothesized, rural and long term residents were more use oriented or 'utilitarian' than urban and short term residents. As hypothesized, and supported by existing literature, value orientation differences were found within gender, education, and age. Females, educated, and younger residents were more protection oriented then their counterparts. Significant relationships were found between value orientations and outdoor activity participation; however, correlations were too weak to provide predictive capabilities. Although, this study compared rural areas, with predominately Native populations, to urban areas, with predominately non-Native populations, race comparisons were not analyzed, but results signify that differences may exist. Future research should seek to validate value orientation differences by culture and race and longitudinal studies should assess shifting value changes over time"--Leaf iii
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Factors influencing the development of wind power in rural Alaska communities"The state of Alaska is endowed with extensive and developable wind resources. The greatest areas of class seven, "superior" wind resources in the entire United States are located in Alaska. Developing these resources has the potential to play a pivotal role in reshaping Alaska's future by providing reliable, local, and stable-priced power. Despite this tremendous natural asset and the immeasurable benefits it harbors, Alaska's wind resources remain largely untapped and underutilized. Rural Alaskan communities, classified by their remote locations, small populations, and consequent low electric demands and high electric costs, possess some of the greatest wind resources in Alaska. The challenge, however, is to overcome the current social, political, technical, economic, and environmental constraints. This thesis aims to identify factors that contribute to and constrain the successful development of wind power projects in rural Alaska and to recommend solutions to overcome specific barriers. The findings demonstrated that the primary influencing factors included leadership, coordination at local and state levels, access to information and assistance, and local human, technical, and financial capacity. Such factors must be an integral part of planning efforts in order to advance wind power development in rural communities"--Leaf iii
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How does improved access to clean water impact rural communities? Evaluating impact of water projects in the Ajumako-Enyan-Essiam district in GhanaResearch has shown that rural water programs benefit communities by promoting women's empowerment, and improving children's education and the health of residents. However, the tendency for such programs to be short-lived (as water pumps break down and villages are unable to repair them) erodes any benefits and sets villages back on the path toward using unsafe and inconvenient water sources. The incidence of failed rural water projects has prompted calls for a more holistic approach to addressing rural water supply issues. Two development organizations, the Nyarkoa Foundation (NF) and the Rural Education and Development Program (REDEP), implemented a water program in villages located in the Ajumako-Enyan-Essiam District of Central Region, Ghana, where earlier water programs had been unsuccessful. Using a new approach, the program focused on gender-sensitive planning, financing for maintenance and participatory governance. Through interviews, focus group discussions and participant observation, this study evaluates the impacts of the NF/REDEP water program in two villages, Ofosu and Awordo. Findings showed that improved access to clean water enhanced economic opportunities for women and children's education in both villages. There was also evidence that equitable and participatory decision-making engendered cooperation and efficient management of the water program, while exclusionist policy making led to apathy and noncompliance. However, the combined usage of the water pumps with unprotected water sources threatened to negate its health benefits, while the absence of effective women's involvement in the management of the program raised questions about its capacity to truly empower women. These findings reveal the need for increased sensitization on the risks of using unsafe water and a review of the program management approach.
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Understanding the outcomes focused management production process: meta-analysis of the relationship between activities, settings, and the benefits of recreation participationThe 1958 Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission, through a 1962 report, tasked federal agencies to inventory supply and demand for outdoor recreation participation. Recreation managers are progressively focusing on demand for the beneficial outcomes of recreation, but have struggled to structure planning and management models to guide decisions that optimize recreationists' ability to attain desired benefits. The Outcomes Focused Management (OFM) framework links benefits to specific activity and setting combinations, giving managers a functional role in the process of benefit production. Past studies examining the OFM's activity-setting-benefit relationship reported weak results, but suggest activity is a stronger predictor of benefit attainment than setting. A better understanding of how activity and setting inputs affect recreationists' ability to realize desired benefits is needed for continued implementation of OFM, with the aim of improving attainment rates of positive recreation outcomes. This study used meta-analytic techniques with data compiled from 16 OFM studies to replicate and expand on published work. With the goal of improving the activity-setting-benefit model, this study introduced two predictor variables, previous visitation and visitors' residential proximity to the site, controlled for the desirability of the benefit, and re-conceptualized the setting variable by testing whether study site is a better predictor of benefit attainment than different settings within a site. Two-way analysis of variance tests measured the dependence of 40 personal (PER) and household, community, economic, environmental benefits (HCEE) on activity participation and setting, using effect sizes and significance levels to compare seven models. This meta-analysis reciprocated findings of a 2004 study, failing to offer definitive evidence of linkages among recreation opportunities in the context of the models tested. Benefit items exhibiting relatively higher sensitivity to activity and setting inputs were 1) "Restore my body from fatigue" (PER), 2) "Improved respect for privately owned lands" (HCEE), 3) "Increased self-confidence" (PER), and 4) "Greater respect for private property and local lifestyles" (PER). Suggestions for future OFM studies and research on the activity-setting-benefit relationship are made, in addition to a summary of potential implications for OFM based on the findings of this study.
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Health benefits of the hunter/gatherer lifestyleThe Hunter/Gatherer Lifestyle has long been associated with positive health benefits. I measured specific metabolic parameters associated with this lifestyle, highlighting lean tissue preservation. Severe loss of lean tissue mass (LTM) (sarcopenia) is a progressive, multifactorial disease presenting with decreased functional performance, age-related bone loss, increased falls and fractures, obesity, type II diabetes mellitus, depression, hospitalization, and even mortality. Degradation of LTM, often accompanied with obesity, is cost-prohibitive emotionally, physically, and financially. To counteract LTM deterioration, a positive net protein balance (NB) must be created through increased protein synthesis or suppressed protein breakdown. I utilized isotope tracer infusion methodology to compare equivalent serving sizes of wild, freerange red meat (FR) to grain-fed commercial meat (CB) on human NB. I observed that FR elicited significantly higher NB than CB due to greater suppression of protein breakdown. I next asked if an unscripted 8-12-day Alaska expeditionary backcountry hunt (ABEH) for moose, caribou, and sheep hunters would be executed in negative energy balance and positively influence metabolic markers while maintaining LTM. I found that energy expenditure was far greater than intake and contributed to reductions in body weight, adipose tissue, serum lipids, and intrahepatic lipid, while preserving LTM. Finally, I asked if a proprietary drink with a unique amino acid formulation (EMR) similar to FR could elicit fat loss and LTM maintenance in a cohort unlikely to gain access to FR. EMR or Optifast® was provided once per day to obese, elderly individuals. With no additional manipulations and in one month, there was a net gain of thigh muscle cross-sectional area and significant reductions in total and visceral fat mass. Concluding, I sought specific metabolic outcomes derived from distinct aspects of the understudied hunter/gatherer lifestyle (i.e., FR, ABEH, EMR). I found positive influences on health which would contribute to LTM preservation during aging, decreasing individual, family, and societal burdens linked to loss of LTM. These findings provide increased emotional, physical, and financial value to the hunter/gatherer lifestyle.
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Impacts of cover cropping and tillage on weed populations and soil nutrients in a sub-Arctic environmentOne of the biggest challenges for organic crop and vegetable producers is weed control. Traditional practices, such as cover cropping and tilling, aid in controlling weeds on fallow land. However, both methods can impact soil nutrient availability. For producers in sub-Arctic regions with a limited growing season, such as interior Alaska, these practices would remove valuable farm land from production for at least a year and potentially impact soil nutrients. The objective of this study was to determine cover cropping and tilling intervals that would reduce weed seedbank size without negatively influencing soil nutrient availability and taking land out of production for multiple growing seasons. A two year (2008 and 2009) study at two interior Alaska farms (UAF-AFES and Rosie Creek) measured weed density, weed seedbank size, and extractable macro and micro soil nutrients at two soil depths (0-15 cm, 15-30 cm) among seven treatments: continuous tillage (TILL), continuous cover crop (CC), tillage + middle season cover crop (TC), and cover crop + middle season tillage (CT). Two species, Hordeum vulgare L. (Albright barley) and Pisum sativum subsp. Arvense (Austrian winter field peas) were planted as cover crops. Field weed estimates were measured prior to treatment applications (tillage or planting) followed by soil core samples post treatment for weed seedbank analysis. Soil cores were collected for soil nutrient analysis at the beginning, middle and end of the growing season. In 2008 at UAF-AFES, weed density among treatments were different mid-season (p<0.05) and the subsequent growing season (p<0.05), TILL and TC treatments reduced weed populations. Weed seedbank size was different among treatments the subsequent growing season (p<0.05). In 2008 at Rosie Creek, only the subsequent growing season were there differences among treatments (p<0.05). In 2009 both study sites had no differences among treatments at any sample period. Extractable soil nutrients varied among location, year and soil depth. The highest concentrations of nitrate (NO₃-N) were measured in the tillage treatments and the lowest concentrations of NO₃-N were measured in the cover crop barley treatments (p<0.05). The research suggested that continuous tillage and tilling through the first half of the growing season has a greater impact on reducing the weed population, but can impact soil nitrate concentrations. Producers may be able to till and cover crop within one growing season, but this is highly dependent on weed density and there may be a loss of soil available nutrients for subsequent crops.
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Preliminary Fairbanks Bee Pollinator Protection PlanGlobal declines in pollinator species have been documented in several studies across the United States, Canada, and Europe. Honeybees, bumble bees and Monarch butterflies have been hit particularly hard in the US. This Preliminary Fairbanks Bee Pollinator Protection Plan recommends ways to increase public awareness of the problems facing bees and other pollinators, methods to increase and protect pollinator habitat and steps to take to reduce the use of pesticides. The plan also includes a list of native and nonnative plants that grow well in the Fairbanks area and that are attractive to insect pollinators. Planting these species can greatly increase the local habitat for pollinators. In developing the plan, I evaluated 12 pollinator plans from other areas, learned about local pollinators and their habitat requirements, and surveyed local beekeepers. To create the goals, objectives and actions included in this plan, I combined ideas from each of these three sources plus ideas of my own. The plan is not intended to be implemented by any one individual or agency. Instead, the plan can be used by anyone interested in improving pollinator habitat. If you have a backyard, access to a community garden, or just a few pots or a windowsill, you can create pollinator habitat. In addition to individuals, there are many businesses, government agencies, non-profits and other organizations that may be interested in taking steps listed in the plan to benefit bees and other pollinators.
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Human well-being in recreation: an investigation of the expectancy-valence theoryOver the past 50 years, numerous approaches exploring the recreation experience have offered a multitude of concepts and terminology, resulting in a debate over which best represent recreation behavior. This study adopts one of these approaches, the motivational approach, and explores its underpinning theory, expectancy-valence; addresses its limitations presented in the literature; and investigates the potential for the integration with other approaches. A modified analytic induction methodology was applied to address five hypotheses developed to address study questions. Longitudinal, qualitative data were collected through two separate interviews one week apart with 16 individuals that captured their thoughts regarding their recreation activities. A codebook was developed and a kappa statistic revealed an acceptable (K = 0.61 to 0.80) level of inter-coder reliability. Codes were developed based on constructs from the expectancy-valence framework prior to examining the transcripts. Evidence of these codes in the transcripts provided support for the theory. Consistent with modified analytic induction, some hypotheses were confirmed, while one was modified when evidence to the contrary was found. Further examination of the data revealed the potential for integration of other approaches.
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Arctic sea ice: satellite observations, global climate model performance, and future scenariosThis thesis examined Arctic sea ice trends through observational records and model-derived scenarios. A regional analysis of Arctic sea ice observations 1980-2008 identified regional trends similar to the pan-Arctic. However, winter maximum (March) extent in the Atlantic quadrant declined faster. Through an analysis of Atlantic Ocean temperatures and Arctic winds, we concluded that melting sea ice extent may result in increased Atlantic Ocean temperatures, which feeds back to further reductions in Atlantic quadrant extent. Further, Arctic winds do not appear to drive Atlantic ice extent. We evaluated performance of 13 Global Climate Models, reviewing retrospective (1980-2008) sea ice simulations and used three metrics to compare with the observational record. We examined and ranked models at the pan-Arctic domain and regional quadrants, synthesizing model performance across several Arctic studies. The top performing models were able to better capture pan-Arctic trends and regional variability. Using the best performing models, we analyzed future sea ice projections across key access routes in the Arctic and found likely reduced ice coverage through 2100, allowing increasingly longer marine operations. This unique assessment found the Northwest and Northeast Passages to hold potential for future marine access to the Arctic, including shipping and resource development opportunities.
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Bringing broader impacts to the community via university K-12 partnerships: growth in and seed quality of Betula neoalaskana SargentBetula neoalaskana Sargent is the most abundant birch species in Alaska. All parts of the tree can be used in creating timber and non-timber products, and birch stands provide high-value ecosystem services for ecotourism and outdoor recreational purposes. For these reasons, the OneTree Alaska program of the University of Alaska Fairbanks uses Interior Alaska white birch as the centerpiece of its work. This M.S. thesis is a contribution to OneTree Alaska's goal of raising the public's understanding of the effects of Interior Alaska's lengthening growing season on the growth and reproduction of the local birch resource. Specifically, the thesis relates to the growth and reproduction of the offspring of the original "one trees" harvested on Nenana Ridge in October 2009. The saplings have been growing in the Generation OneTree Research Plot in the T-field, north of the Smith Lake on the University of Alaska Fairbanks campus, since June 2011 and represent half-sibling families reared from the seed of 8 maternal trees. As seedlings, they were reared for growing seasons of variable length, both by students at the Watershed Charter School of the Fairbanks North Star Borough and by OneTree personnel in a University of Alaska Fairbanks growth chamber. Prior to this study, end of year measurements had been taken of the young trees in the T-field for all but one year and established that the length of the first growing season persistently affected the number of stems and the diameter at breast height (DBH) of the main stems. New findings in this thesis show that the elevation difference among trees impacts the number of infructescences and germination rates but not the number of male catkins. At least for the 2018 seed crop, seeds from trees planted at higher elevations in the T-field showed higher germination rates than those planted at lower elevations, while they produce fewer infructescences at up slope. Other findings demonstrate that sibling family does not have an effect on either vegetative or reproductive growth. Instead, the length of the first growing season provides for a diversity of canopy shapes across sibling families. The most significant finding is the effect of elevation on female reproductive growth: It suggests a number of next steps, tools, and analysis to better understand environmental variables that work alongside elevation in determining growth and reproductive success. Soil moisture and pH (H2O), Carbon/Nitrogen ratio, Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) to determine micronutrient composition, sensors to capture wind speed/direction and solar radiation, photosynthetic traits, and chlorophyll concentration measurements could all be valuable in further elucidating the hypotheses being advanced by this research regarding the interactions between changing environment and reproduction.
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It's so good to be back: explorations of subsistence in AlaskaThis dissertation explores some aspects of contemporary hunter-gatherer economies in Alaska, with an emphasis on quantitative approaches. Written in manuscript-style, the focus is on four decades beginning about 1980, which coincided with legal recognition of hunter-gatherer activities as "subsistence," and with expanded subsistence data collection efforts. Subsistence is viewed through four theoretical frames: socio-ecological resilience, political ecology, social networks, and food security. Principles of common-pool resource management are reviewed, as are legal frames unique to Alaska that limited possible approaches to management and resulted in a fragmented management systems. In the body of the dissertation, the first article explores trends in rural community populations, wild food harvests, and personal incomes over time, identifies factors associated with subsistence harvests, models subsistence productivity, and estimates road effects on harvests and income. The second article uses household-level social network and economic data from two Iñupiat communities to explore hypotheses designed to test an assumed transition from wild food dependence to market dependence. The third article combines concepts of sensitivity and adaptive capacity drawn from vulnerability literature to explore differences in household characteristics within and between three Alaska communities. The discussion adopts a political ecology approach, introducing narrative discourses of subsistence in Alaska, comparing subsistence narrative discourses with the results the larger body of resilience, network analysis, and food security literature. It demonstrates how the same objective facts could drive competing narratives, and how resource management itself was subject to narrative construction.
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Retrospective analysis of the Alaska halibut and sablefish individual fishing quota fisheries comparing the program with the anticipated outcomes and other limited entry fisheriesThe Alaska Halibut and Sablefish Individual Fishing Quota (IFQ) program is one of the largest and most successful catch share programs of the United States and the world. It has been successful in maintaining the economic value and owner-operated characteristics of these fisheries for the past 25 years. While most of the federal fisheries off Alaska have already transitioned to catch-share management systems, the development of new catch share programs for other regions could benefit from lessons learned in the development and evolution of the Alaska halibut and sablefish IFQ program. One of the main concerns of the policymakers with implementing an IFQ program was the potential loss of halibut and sablefish QS held by residents of remote communities in the Central Gulf of Alaska and the Southeast Alaska regions and the resultant long-term social changes. That concern remains, along with a related concern about perceived financial barriers to entry the Alaska Halibut and Sablefish IFQ program. The resilience of fishery-dependent communities depends on the state of the available fish resources as well as the extent to which community residents are vested in the fishery through ownership of limited license permits and quota share. This thesis consists of five chapters. The first is an overall introduction, which summarizes the entire thesis, and the final chapter is an overview conclusion of the research that was conducted. The three central chapters review the history of the fishery, gauge stakeholder attitudes about aspects of the program, and explore limitations to the successful adoption of measures intended to empower community engagement in these fisheries. Chapter 2 describes the evolution of the Alaska region Pacific halibut and sablefish fisheries over the past 139 years. This history can be divided into seven eras, each characterized by unique opportunities, challenges, and management innovations. The chapter shows that fluctuations in fish populations have been influenced by the interplay of management actions and environmental variation. The third chapter is a survey of Pacific Halibut and Sablefish Quota Share (QS) holders. This survey gathered information on crewmembers and operating costs in the Alaska halibut and sablefish fisheries. The results indicate that, on smaller vessels in certain areas, crewmembers tend to be drawn from the local region. In comparison, the crewmembers on larger vessels that fish in more remote areas tend to be drawn from outside those fishing areas. Results also indicate that residents of small fishing communities in remote areas had difficulty in obtaining financing to purchase QS for halibut and sablefish. In contrast, residents of larger communities expressed less concern about access to financing for QS purchases. The fourth chapter focuses on the evolution of the Alaska halibut and sablefish IFQ program. The impacts on the small communities following the transitions from open- to limited-access or share-based management were negative for some communities and positive for other communities. Over the past 16 years, several programs have been established to benefit fishery-dependent communities. Chapter 4 provides an overview of community-support measures developed for these fisheries and describes similar programs created for other Alaska region fisheries. These programs are not being fully utilized. In order to build their local fleets, communities need to increase cooperation and coordination to establish quota. Chapter 4 establishes a "roadmap" for sustaining and rebuilding community-based fisheries in Alaska. It requires the community to focus on its cooperative goals to enable them to take advantage of the community support measures included in fisheries regulation. There seems to be more interest in the younger generation in Alaska wanting to get involved in commercial fisheries. Evidence includes the popularity of the apprenticeship program developed by the Alaska Longline Association in Sitka and the keen interest in the annual Alaskan Young Fishermen Summit hosted by the Alaska Sea Grant. Rural communities could encourage the development of the next generation of fishermen by nurturing their youth's interest in fisheries and reestablishing their cultural heritage. This could be done by using the Federal halibut special permits for Ceremonial, Celebration, and Education fisheries. These permits are free and require a minimal amount of paperwork through the NOAA Fisheries Restricted Access Management program. The State of Alaska also has an educational permit program that is currently underutilized but has been successfully used in the past. Reestablished of these programs in local schools could foster youth's interest in their cultural heritage in fisheries. The positive outcome of this research is the information provided for rural communities to engage in more opportunities to generate fishing income for their community. Communities could have a real opportunity to bring commercial fisheries back into their rural areas. If the communities can navigate through all the regulations, it could provide a positive economic stimulus for the next generation of youth in their communities.
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Stakeholder needs and information use in cryospheric hazard planning and response: case studies from AlaskaThe global cryosphere is experiencing rapid change, which potentially impacts the severity and magnitude of various cryospheric hazards. Alaska is home to a number of different communities that experience cryospheric hazards. These types of hazards can have potentially devastating impacts on surrounding biodiversity, communities, and infrastructure. However, there is a gap in understanding regarding what are stakeholder information needs for different cryospheric hazards, as well as what are the resources stakeholders use to meet these needs. This dissertation investigated stakeholder use of various information products and resources in three cryospheric hazard-prone communities in Alaska, which experience glacial lake outburst flood events (Juneau and the Kenai Peninsula) or anomalous high-speed sea ice motion events (Utqiaġvik). In addition, a clear need exists to understand how further cryosphere change affects cryospheric hazards. Therefore, I tested whether a structured decision-making methodology can be pertinent in a cryospheric hazard context, which has previously never been done before. Specifically, I tested whether structured decision-making can be employed by decision-makers to better understand the planning needs necessary to adequately prepare for future, but uncertain glacial surges from Bering Glacier, Alaska. I found that identifying distinct stakeholder needs as well as stakeholder use of currently available information products and resources was particularly beneficial for information providers to understand how and why their products and resources are or are not used. This opened up opportunities for existing products to be enhanced or for new products to be developed. However, one of the main findings from the case study research is that there is no single information product that meets all stakeholder needs. Different stakeholders have different information needs, which need to be addressed in different ways. The structured decision-making approach tested in this dissertation was also found to be useful and applicable in a cryospheric hazard context. It can therefore be utilized as a methodological framework by decision-makers to integrate varying stakeholder needs in such a context. The findings from this research provide a unique contribution to the literature by displaying how social science and decision analysis research can support the development of information tools and resources that are both useful and relevant to those affected by cryospheric hazards.
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The Importance of communication in land use planning for interior Alaska: a participant observation studyThree case studies (i.e., (1) FNSB Marijuana Zoning, (2) The Joint Land Use Study, and (3) Rethinking Smith Ranch) were examined in the context of land use planning to assist the reader in understanding some of the challenges a second-class borough in Alaska faces. The researcher utilized an opportunity with the Fairbanks North Star Borough to perform a participant observation study which demonstrated the complexity in engaging and communicating with citizens of the area. The researcher identified the three following critical themes and referenced planning literature to analyze them: (1) challenges to accomplishing goals, (2) the importance of communication, and (3) potential solutions to overcoming challenges. Upon identifying the challenges experienced both during the case studies, as well as outside of the case studies, the researcher determined possible solutions to help the borough’s Department of Community Planning overcome the difficulties associated with communication and engagement of citizens.
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Pairwise comparisons of shrub change across alpine climates show heterogeneous response to temperature in Dall's Sheep rangeEncroachment of woody vegetation into alpine and high latitude systems complicates resource use for specialist wildlife species. We converted Landsat imagery to maps of percent shrub cover in alpine areas of Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) range. We then compared percent cover to interpolated climate data to infer drivers of shrub change between the 1980s and 2010s and determine if that change is occurring at different rates in climatically distinct alpine areas. We identified areas spatially interconnected by their mean July temperature intervals and compared their rates of shrub change, finding net rates of shrub growth were higher at temperatures notably above shrub growing season minimums. Along a climatic gradient, high precipitation areas had highest net shrub change, Arctic areas followed, while alpine areas of interior Alaska and the cold Arctic showed the least amount of net shrub change at these higher temperatures. Despite the requirement of higher temperatures for shrub growth, temperature and net shrub change displayed different relationships across the range wide climatic gradient. In areas of rapid climate warming, such as the Arctic and cold Arctic, the linear correlation between shrub change and temperature was highest. In the high precipitation areas where temperatures have been largely above growing season minimums during the study period, precipitation had the strongest linear correlation with shrub change. High latitude studies on shrub change focus primarily on expansion in the Arctic, where increased greening trends are linked to higher rates of warming. We provide the broadest climatic examination of shrub change and its drivers in Alaska and suggest shrub expansion 1) occurs more broadly than just in areas of notable climate warming and 2) is dependent on different environmental factors based on regional climate. The implications for Dall's sheep are complicated and further research is necessary to understand their adaptive capacity in response to this widespread vegetative shift.
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Planning for positive outcomes: testing methods for measuring outdoor recreation preferences on public landsOutcomes-Focused Management is based on the idea of four levels of demand for recreation: demand for recreation activities, recreation settings, recreation experiences, and lasting benefits of recreation. Public lands can provide the setting, and thus the opportunity for people to engage in meaningful outdoor recreation activities to realize desired experiences and lasting benefits. Implementation of this management framework requires identifying desired outcomes and understanding how management of public lands recreation settings affects visitors' ability to realize them. This thesis addresses the two tasks. The Fairbanks Community Recreation Study investigated current methods of identifying demands for different types of recreation trips, revealing two key shortcomings. First, demand studies often rely solely on activity participation data and thus fail to account for latent demand and desires for meaningful experiences and benefits. Second, data from demand studies are either too general to be useful in site management, or too specific to one site to account for the range of needs within a community. An online survey was developed to characterize salient and latent demands for outdoor recreation in the context of the greater Fairbanks, Alaska community. A unique survey format allowed respondents to describe their hypothetical "ideal" outdoor recreation trips, the required setting characteristics, and what actual places in the region might realistically provide such a trip. Trip profiles yielded a typology of desired recreation for the region. By connecting these types of trips to real places, local land managers can identify which demands they are uniquely equipped to provide for and how to better cater to latent demands. To address the task of measuring the effectiveness of outcomes-focused management practices, an exploratory factor analysis was conducted on data from 13 recreation benefits surveys collected at recreation areas in three western states. Factor structures among individual studies converged on two primary domains of Personal Benefits of recreation and Community Benefits from recreation, each containing a number of potential subdimensions. By identifying latent factors of the recreation benefits construct the study brings research closer to developing and validating a survey instrument to measure lasting beneficial recreation outcomes to individuals and their communities.
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Wildfire in Alaska: the economic role of fuel treatments and homeowner preferences in the wildland urban interfaceThe challenges of increased temperatures, drier fuels and more intense wildfires are having a detrimental effect on Alaskans, especially those who live in the wildland urban interface. This area is defined by open wildlands being directly adjacent to homeowners. Human safety and property are exposed to increasing risk from these wildfires as climate-based changes affect the state. The rising costs of suppressing wildfires necessitate exploring potential solutions to minimize the impact on the state population and budget. The purpose of this study is to analyze the feasibility of fuel treatments to reduce suppression costs and provide incentives to private homeowners to create safer property spaces. An electronic survey and choice experiment were administered to 388 Alaskan homeowners to measure willingness-to-pay for different attributes associated with wildfire risk reduction variables, including nearby fuel treatments and overall neighborhood participation. Expenditure data were collected for large Alaskan wildfires between 2007 and 2015. An econometric cost model was developed to estimate the effect of nearby fuel treatments on final wildfire suppression expenditures. In both scenarios, there was a limited effect from public land fuel treatments on homeowner preferences and total suppression costs. Homeowners had a strong preference for thinned fuel treatments but did not prefer clear-cut tracts of land, even when compared to doing nothing at all. The survey provided significant insight into the preferences of Alaskan homeowners, including altruistic behavior, free riding behavior, self-assessment of risk, and the amenity values of surrounding vegetation. The costs of large Alaskan wildfires in the data set was mainly driven by protection level and number of burn days, and not by the presence or potential utilization of fuel treatments.
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Learning from the local scale: identifying and addressing local blind spots in Arctic environmental governanceEnvironmental governance in the context of climate change adaptation brings together diverse actors and stakeholders to develop and enact policies across a broad range of scales. However, local needs and priorities are often mismatched with those pursued by entities at different levels of decision-making. This mismatch is perpetuated, in part, by the dominating influence of the Western worldview in knowledge processes involving the creation, sharing, and use of environmental knowledge. Persistent biases that favor Western science and technical information while marginalizing other important sources like local and Indigenous knowledge create blind spots that may adversely affect adaptation outcomes. In this research, a case study of the Native Village of Wainwright, Alaska is used to explore the topic of information blind spots in environmental governance resulting from 1) low resolution tools employed within broad scale adaptation initiatives; 2) preferences for easily quantifiable information; and 3) the challenge of communicating context-rich details to outside decision makers, given disciplinary biases and organizational conventions. This dissertation comprises manuscripts based on three studies undertaken to address the above blind spots in specific areas of adaptation planning. The first manuscript furthers conventional methods of adaptation classification through a place-based approach that uses directed content analysis to identify aspects of local adaptation not readily captured by low resolution frameworks. The second manuscript employs contextual analysis and extends Ostrom's Institutional Analysis and Development framework to characterize the role of local informal institutions in adaptation and provide insights into how difficult-to-quantify social and cultural norms might be leveraged in planned adaptation initiatives. The third manuscript reports on a formative endeavor that looked practically at conventions for communicating environmental change to public sector decision-makers, and tested a survey that explored the potential for context-rich visuals and other reporting strategies to effectively convey information about local observations and experiences of change.
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Crop modeling to assess the impact of climate change on spring wheat growth in sub-Arctic AlaskaIn the sub-arctic region of Interior Alaska, warmer temperatures and a longer growing season caused by climate change could make spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) a more viable crop. In this study, a crop model was utilized to simulate the growth of spring wheat in future climate change scenarios RCP4.5 (medium-low emission) and RCP8.5 (high emission) of Fairbanks, Alaska. In order to fulfill such simulation, in 2018 high quality crop growth datasets were collected at the Fairbanks and Matanuska Valley Experiment Farms and along with historic variety trial data, the crop model was calibrated and validated for simulating days to maturity (emergence to physiological maturity) and yield of spring wheat in Fairbanks. In the Fairbanks 1989-2018 (baseline) climate, growing season (planting to physiological maturity) average temperature and total precipitation are 15.6° C and 122 mm, respectively. In RCP4.5 2020-2049 (2035s), 2050-2079 (2065s), and 2080-2099 (2090s) projected growing season average temperature and total precipitation are 16.7° C, 17.4° C, 17.8° C and 120 mm, 112 mm, 112 mm, respectively. In RCP8.5 2035s, 2065s, and 2090s projected growing season average temperature and total precipitation are 16.8° C, 18.5° C, 19.5° C and 120 mm, 113 mm, 117 mm, respectively. Using Ingal, an Alaskan spring wheat, the model simulated days to maturity and yield in baseline and projected climate scenarios of Fairbanks, Alaska. Baseline days to maturity were 69 and yield was 1991 kg ha-1. In RCP4.5 2035s, 2065s, and 2090s days to maturity decreased to 64, 62, 60 days, respectively, and yield decreased 2%, 6%, 8%, respectively. In RCP8.5 2035s, 2065s, and 2090s days to maturity decreased to 64, 58, 55 days, respectively, and yield decreased 1%, 3%, then increased 1%, respectively. Adaptation by cultivar modification to have a growing degree day requirement of 68 days to maturity in RCP4.5 2035s and RCP8.5 2035s resulted in increased yields of 4% and 5%, respectively. Climatic parameters of temperature and precipitation per growing season day are projected to become more favorable to the growth of spring wheat. However, precipitation deficit, an indicator of water stress was found to stay similar to the baseline climate. Without adaption, days to maturity and yield are projected to decrease. Selection and/or breeding of spring wheat varieties to maintain baseline days to maturity are a priority to materialize yield increases in the area of Fairbanks, Alaska.
