Statewide and Census Division Demographic and Economic Systems, Navarin Basin (Sale 83) Impact Analysis

Abstract

This study examines economic and population impacts of the proposed Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) petroleum development of the Navarin Basin (Sale 83). The study begins with historical baseline analyses of the population and economies of the State of Alaska and the Aleutian Islands. Next, base case projections of conditions in the absence of OCS development are proposed. Subsequently, the impacts of OCS development are examined. The projections were done using the MAP and SCIMP models developed at the University of Alaska's Institute of Social and Economic Research.

In the base case, statewide population increases to over 590 thousand by the year 2010. In the 1.2 Bbbl oil discovery case, the maximum percentage impact upon statewide population is 3 percent, or 16,800, in 1993. The Aleutian Islands' base case resident population is predicted to rise from 3,654 in 1980 to 8,348 in 2000 due to growth in the bottomfish industry. The maximum increase in population is 281, or 4 percent, in 1996.

The maximum impact upon Aleutian Islands' resident employment is 12 percent (291) in 1996. The maximum impact upon Aleutian Islands' nonresident or enclave employment is 45 percent (770) in 1989 during the construction of OCS facilities.