Diapir Field Statewide and Regional Economic and Demographic Systems Impact Analysis

Abstract

This study projects economic and demographic impacts of OCS lease sale 87, scheduled for June of 1984 in the Beaufort Sea. Base case and impact projections are developed for the state of Alaska and for Anchorage and Fairbanks using the MAP econometric model. The maximum projected impact of a 3.0 BBBL Oil development on Sale 87 leases is an increase of about 3 percent in total state population and employment. Similar impacts occur for Anchorage and Fairbanks. In both absolute and percentage terms, percentage terms, projected impacts are greater after the year 2000 than in the 1990s, when peak direct employment associated with the sale would occur. This is because most future growth in Alaska is associated with support sector expansion; the effect of Sale 87 is to cause this growth to occur earlier.