Gulf of Alaska Economic and Demographic Systems Analysis

Abstract

This report examines possible impacts of the Gulf of Alaska lease offering, scheduled for October of 1984, upon the population and economics of five communities in southcentral Alaska: Homer, Kenai, Kodiak, Seward, and Yakutat. For each community we provide descriptions of current populations and employment. We then use the Rural Alaska Model ("RAM" model) to project a number of economic and demographic variables for these five communities with and without development of the proposed lease sale area. These projections are sensitive to the numerous assumptions required by the model.

In the base case, we project relatively low rates of growth in resident population for Kenai and Kodiak (less than 1.2 percent annually over the period 1981-2010); we project a moderate growth rate for Yakutat (1.9 percent annually over the period , with most growth occurring before 1990); and we project high rates of growth for Homer and Seward (2.3 percent and 3.6 percent) due to increased tourism, fish processing, and shipbuilding.

We project relativity minor impacts from development in the lease sale area upon population and employment in Homer, Kenai, Kodiak, and Seward (generally less than 10 percent at maximum). In contrast, we project more substantial relative impacts upon population and employment in Yakutat (up to 46 percent and 82 percent, respectively). Although absolute impacts are similar in Yakutat to those in the other communities, relative impacts are greater because Yakutat is much smaller.