St. George Basin and North Aleutian Basin Economic and Demographic Systems Impacts Analysis

Abstract

In this report, we present descriptions and "base case" projections of population and employment for the communities of Unalaska and Cold Bay. We also present projections of the impacts on population and employment in these communities which might result from the proposed St. George Basin and North Aleutian Shelf OCS Lease offerings.

The future development of Unalaska is highly uncertain. Our projections suggest that the population of Unalaska in the year 2000 could range from as low as 900-only a little larger than the 1980 resident population- to as high as 4,600. Future development of the crab and bottomfish industries will be the key factor affecting the future size of the community.

Unalaska is envisioned primarily as a marine support base for future OCS development. Our projections suggest that the relative impacts of development resulting from the proposed lease sales would be relatively small. Development of both sale areas might increase population and employment by approximately 15 percent during the peak year of 1993. These projections are based on the assumption that only workers associated with the shore base would become residents of Unalaska.

Cold Bay is primarily a transient community based around aviation and communication facilities. In the "base case," the resident population may fall by about one-third due to future cutbacks in employment by the FAA, the U.S. Air Force, and RCA. However, OCS development in the Navarin Basin might reverse this decline, bringing population back to approximately current levels. Additional development from development of the St. George Basin or North ALeutian Shelf OC sale areas could further increase population by as much as 40 percent, Cold Bay would still remain a small community of approximately the same size as it was during the Vietnam war years.

In addition to our descriptions and projections for Unalaska and Cold Bay, we have provided descriptions for Sand Point, St. Paul, St. George, and Nelson Lagoon. However, we don not expect these communities to be directly affected by future OCS development in the St. George or North Aleutian Shelf lease sale areas.