Community Economic and Demographic Systems Analysis of the Norton Basin Lease Sale 100

Abstract

In this report, we develop a description of the economy and population of Nome. In addition, we examine possible impacts of the Norton Basin Lease Offering (OCS Sale 100) upon the population and economy of Nome. We prepared the projections using the Institute of Social and Economic Research's Rural Alaska Model (RAM model).

Our model projections suggest that development of OCS 100 would have a relatively small impact upon Nome, increasing resident employment by a maximum of 8 percent and resident population by a maximum of 5 percent. However, this result depends upon numerous assumptions. Changing some of these assumptions could change the projected impacts of OCS Sale 100.

For example, we assumed that all offshore OCS jobs were held by nonresidents. If local residents obtained some of the offshore jobs, or if some of these workers chose to settle in Nome, the impacts of the sale would be greater. In addition , our model does not consider possible indirect effects of the lease sale such as additional local government revenues due to taxation of onshore oil facilities.