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dc.contributor.authorKnapp, Gunnar
dc.date.accessioned2023-10-02T19:16:47Z
dc.date.available2023-10-02T19:16:47Z
dc.date.issued1998-10-30
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11122/14512
dc.description.abstractMarine fisheries are very vulnerable to climate change. Most of the research to date on the relationship between climate change and fisheries focuses specifically on how climate change may affect marine ecosystems and in turn abundance and harvests of specific marine species. This paper focuses on the human effects-economic, social and political effects-of climate-driven changes in Alaska commercial fisheries, and what can be done to mitigate these effects. Alaska commercial fisheries are the basis of a major industry of economic significance not only to Alaska but also the nation. In 1995, the ex-vessel value (the value received by fishermen) of Alaska landings exceeded $1.4 billion, while the first wholesale value (the value after processing in Alaska) was almost $3.0 billion. Climate change may have significant effects on Alaska fisheries. Climate change is likely to reduce the abundance of some species while increasing the abundance of others, with resulting reductions or increases in commercial harvests. For some species, significant changes in harvests may occur rapidly. How managers respond to climate change may either amplify or smooth out the effects of climate change on harvests. For a given species, climate change may cause harvests to increase in some parts of Alaska and decline in other parts of Alaska. For most species, we can't predict accurately how harvests in a given area may change, or when changes may occur. The farther we look into the future, the greater our uncertainty about potential changes in harvests. The history of commercial fishing in Alaska and elsewhere offers numerous examples of the economic and social consequences of climate change. These may include: Changes in harvests. Changes in regulations due to effects of climate on other species. Changes in fishing and processing employment. Changes in harvesting and processing costs. Changes in Prices. Changes in market share. Changes in fishing and processing income and profits. Changes in income and employment in fisheries support activities. Changes in local and statewide tax revenues. "Multiplier" effects of changes in fishing-related income. Changes in boat, gear, permit and IFQ (individual fishing quota) values. Changes in fisheries participation. Social stresses. Political conflict. Changes in costs and opportunities due to changes in weather and ice conditions. Costs of retooling. It is reasonable to assume that climate change could halve or double average harvests of any given species. This suggest that climate change could decrease or increase the total ex-vessel and wholesale value of Alaska harvests of some species by hundreds of millions dollars annually. The effects of global supply on markets for Alaska fish further complicate the task of assessing the potential effects of climate change on the Alaska fishing industry. It is not sufficient to understand only how fish harvests may be affected in Alaska. To understand potential climate-driven changes in markets, we would also need to understand how climate change might affect harvests of competing species in other parts of the world. For some regions of Alaska the economic effects of climate change may be highly favorable, for other regions the effects may be highly unfavorable. The fact that many of the economic benefits of Alaska fisheries accrue to non-resident fishermen, processing workers, and processing plant owners reduces the extent to which effects of climate change will be experienced in Alaska. Many of these effects will occur in the Pacific Northwest region. Potential long-term changes that could affect the significance of climate change for Alaska fisheries include: Changes in fish prices. Changes in technologies for fish harvesting and utilization. Changes in fisheries management. Changes in Alaska and American society. Potential strategies to mitigate the effects of climate-driven changes in Alaska fisheries include increasing attention to long-term forecasting and planning, and incorporating mechanisms for adjusting to harvest changes in management and political institutions.en_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherCenter for Global Change and Arctic System Research University of Alaska Fairbanksen_US
dc.subjectClimate Changeen_US
dc.subjectFishingen_US
dc.subjectAlaskaen_US
dc.titleAssessing the Consequences of Climate Change for Alaska and the Bering Seaen_US
dc.typeReporten_US
refterms.dateFOA2023-10-02T19:16:47Z


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