Impact analysis of the marine sport fisheries of middle and lower Cook Inlet

Abstract

Impact analysis models such as Input-Output (I-O) can provide a view of the regional economic significance of a resource-based industry. Analysts often utilize impact analyses to predict the distributive outcomes of demand shocks to local industries; however, even if such forecasts are modeled appropriately within the impact assessment framework, the results are not particularly relevant if the motives and magnitudes of demand change are arbitrarily posed. In order for an impact analysis to be meaningful, it should not stand alone, but instead be part and parcel of a more encompassing modeling approach comprising a demand function. This paper describes a linkage between a regionally ground-truthed 1-0 model and a predictive model of participation rates for the Cook Inlet, Alaska, sport fisheries. The demand effects of environmental or regulatory induced change to the sport fishery are simulated and the resulting economic impacts are reported.