Identification and future susceptibility of permafrost degradation near Red Dog Mine

Abstract

Permafrost degradation is a major concern in the Arctic region, and its impacts on infrastructure, ecosystems, and global climate are significant. Within recent years, 2018 to present, the level of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) has been elevated in Ikalukrok Creek in Northwest Alaska, made evident by creek discolorations known as river rusting. The current analyses indicate that changes in permafrost regimes can trigger the observed rise in TDS. Data visualization, remote sensing, and permafrost modeling were used to understand the physical mechanisms involved in the increase of TDS and to identify regions susceptible to permafrost degradation. This comprehensive approach integrates various datasets to capture the spatiotemporal characteristics of talik formation near Ikalukrok Creek. The permafrost models incorporate a variety of data such as soil temperature, soil type, vegetation, snow cover, and topography. Spatially distributed 1-D models utilize vegetation as a proxy to parameterize ground thermal properties. All models are validated using ground temperature measurements. The study aims to investigate the correlation between changes in TDS and climatic factors, particularly how variations in air temperature influence TDS concentrations in river water. Additionally, it seeks to understand the mechanisms driving river rusting, monitor hydrological and permafrost changes using remote sensing and modeling. By utilizing remote sensing images, it is possible to identify and map the visual extent of river rusting and to investigate the relationship between river rusting concentration, climatic events, and talik formation. This study presents a better understanding of the factors driving talik formation and the increase of TDS. Understanding talik formation and increases in TDS is critical for the mitigation of pollution in the environment. This research provides a foundation for other researchers to build upon, as we learn more about river rusting, it is hoped that policymakers will be able to utilize this information or similar insights.