FAA EAGLE Avgas Transition: Considerations for Impacts on Alaskan Supply Chains

Abstract

Federal bodies have called for a directed transition away from 100 octane low lead aviation gas (100LL avgas) due to public health concerns. Leaded avgas currently powers piston engine aircraft in general aviation and air taxi fleets, serving both recreational and commercial purposes. In considering the unleaded avgas transition, we must acknowledge that public policy frequently generates unintended consequences that reduce anticipated net benefits for subgroups of the population. Particular attention should be placed on regions which are heavily reliant on piston aircraft for core commercial services to remote environments, and where infrastructure adjustments are highly complex and costly. Alaska is one such key context. This brief outlines considerations for potential core supply chain impacts in this remote, aviation-dependent environment and which communities are particularly exposed.

While Alaska is 48th in total population, the state is 1st in total volume of intra-state air cargo delivery. Over 80% of the state's communities lie off the road system, and piston engine aircraft are an important component of that commercial fleet. Leveraging granularity in the Bureau of Transport Statistics (BTS) T-100 database, we find that over 50% of carriers reporting intra-Alaska flights had at least one piston engine aircraft in their fleet. In 2023, T-100 data recorded 130,850 commercial piston aircraft flights transporting 201,729 passengers and 30.6M lbs of cargo between Alaskan communities. For non-hub ‘bush’ communities, almost 50% of all commercial flights, 30% of passengers, and 20% of recorded cargo were delivered by piston aircraft. We map community reliance across the state, with particular importance found for off-road destinations in the Southeast, Southwest, and Kodiak. A complete tabular breakdown of piston-engine market shares is generated for all Alaskan destination communities.

We conclude by providing key economic questions for Alaska to address ahead of a fuel transition. Assuring the technical performance of unleaded fuel alternatives in Alaskan environments is foundational. Then, to most efficiently utilize the preparation window, policymakers and sector leadership should understand the impact of increased fuel expenses on overall linehaul cost per ton-mile, the share of cost increases borne by service communities, impacts on route viability, and the potentially complex process of staging any necessary support infrastructure such as fuel storage to off-road communities in Alaska's narrow barge season.