Data-driven simulation of sustainable residential HVAC systems in Fairbanks, AK

Abstract

Residential heating comes at extremely high costs and with harmful air pollution in many Alaskan communities. In Fairbanks, the issue of air pollution has received special attention in recent years, specifically due to the high concentration of small particulate matter resulting from residential space heating. This thesis aims to address energy insecurity and air pollution in Fairbanks by proposing an improved residential HVAC system. A computer simulation was developed to model the operations of several different HVAC configurations for comparison with standard heating oil boiler and portable air conditioner systems. This Python model provided a means of simulating one year of heating and cooling using TMY3 weather data, performance data from commercially available HVAC equipment, and historic energy pricing. The proposed HVAC system integrated a hybrid source heat pump with thermal storage, radiative sky cooling, and solar evacuated tube heating technology. Other tested systems included single and dual air source heat pumps, and water source heat pumps integrated with thermal storage, radiative sky cooling, and solar evacuated tube heating technology. Each of the tested systems were fitted with a backup boiler to meet the heating requirement in Fairbanks at the ASHRAE design temperature. A boiler and portable AC unit were also simulated in operation as a baseline for comparison to the tested systems. Each tested system was found to greatly reduce the operational cost, heating oil consumption, and associated CO2 and PM2.5 emissions compared to the baseline system. The proposed hybrid source heat pump system saw the greatest of these operational benefits, demonstrating operational cost savings of 19.12% and heating oil consumption reduction of 43.1% as compared to the heating oil boiler and portable AC unit. A benefit-cost analysis revealed that while each tested system showed operational benefits from the baseline, the increased maintenance costs associated with these complex systems outweighed the operational benefits. Furthermore, the capital costs were found to increase substantially with system complexity, creating a barrier to entry for users. While each tested system was found to lower operational costs and increase social benefit by reducing CO2 and PM2.5 emissions, the disproportionate capital and maintenance costs of these systems resulted in economic nonviability. This research highlighted the need for sustainable HVAC solutions for residential homes in Fairbanks. While these results showcased a modern-day application of the developed model in Fairbanks, the key contribution of this thesis was the development of a powerful, adaptable model which can simulate the operation of a variety of HVAC systems in different locations. The structure of the model allows the user to simply upload new location specific data to perform a one-year HVAC simulation in any location where this data is available. While this thesis uses a sample Fairbanks home in simulation, the simulated building’s construction geometry and material properties are easily adaptable, allowing the user to fully specify the desired building for analysis. Similarly, the selected HVAC equipment is easily adaptable, allowing the user to specify performance data for commercially available equipment, or even test new technology in a variety of locations and building applications. This adaptability allows the model to be applied for both residential and commercial buildings and used to simulate HVAC operations across a variety of locations for cost analysis, research and development.