Appendices_Holistic species conservation assessment in a changing climate: A shifting paradigm from conserving biodiversity to minimizing species extinction in squirrels.

Abstract

In times of human-induced and accelerating climate change and the sixth mass extinction, it remains unknown where species will persist and thrive in the future. This study explores a holistic assemblage-based conservation management assessment using all squirrel species currently occurring in Alaska (six) and the adjacent 600 km buffer region (an additional six) as an exemplary set of study species. We conducted this assessment by predicting the current and future distributions (based on three different Global Climate Models) of all 12 squirrel species, both individually and as an assemblage, and analyzing how their distributions change over time. We then further investigated the actual changes between the current and future predicted distribution and utilized the RAD (Resist, Adapt, Direct) decision framework to develop conservation management actions in response to expected climate change trajectories in Alaska. We found that the current predicted distribution and associated niche collapses for several species by the year 2100, and drastically shifts for most. If the assemblage-wide biodiversity loss is to be minimized throughout the upcoming approximately 75 years, considerable conservation and habitat management need to be planned and successfully implemented. Without meaningful action, at least two species (out of 12; 17%), including an Alaska endemic species, are predicted to suffer drastic population declines and even become extinct.