Developing a stochastic rupture model catalog for earthquakes with magnitudes of seven or greater along the Alaskan subduction zone

Abstract

Alaska represents one of the most seismically active regions in the Ring of Fire and world impacted by large-magnitude (Mw > 6.5) earthquake events, posing significant risks to local communities and infrastructure, but also distant populations due to the associated tsunami hazard. However, limited seismo-geodetic datasets hinder the understanding of the slip kinematics of megathrust earthquakes in the Alaskan subduction zone, complicating the estimation of future earthquake probabilities, surface displacements, and the design of a GNSS-aided Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system. This research contributes an extensive synthetic rupture model catalog for the Alaskan subduction zone, generated using the stochastic methodology of the MudPy software (Melgar et al., 2021). The catalog includes 41,288 rupture scenarios with moment magnitudes ranging from Mw 7.0 to 9.5 (four scenarios per magnitude unit) and covers 397 synthetic hypocenters, evenly distributed (0.6° × 0.6°) on the fault plane down to 100 km depth. This thesis serves as a benchmark for using MudPy to generate rupture models, focusing on the Alaskan subduction zone, and represents an important step in improving Alaska’s preparedness for future seismic events.