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AN ASSESSMENT OF SAMPLING DETECTABILITY FOR GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY MONITORING: RESULTS FROM SAMPLING GRIDS IN DIFFERENT CLIMATIC REGIONS
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AN ASSESSMENT OF SAMPLING DETECTABILITY FOR GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY MONITORING: RESULTS FROM SAMPLING GRIDS IN DIFFERENT CLIMATIC REGIONS
Nemitz, Dirk
Date:
2008-12-05
Type: Thesis
Table of Contents: 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 9
1.1 Global Biodiversity Crisis and Biodiversity Monitoring ........................................... 9
1.2 Goals of the Study .................................................................................................... 11
2 Methods ............................................................................................................................ 13
2.1
Study Area................................................................................................................ 13
2.1.1
Study Area 1CR: La Suerte Station, Costa Rica .............................................. 14
2.1.2
Study Area 2Ni: Ometepe Island, Nicaragua ................................................... 15
2.1.3
Study Area 3AK: Fairbanks, Alaska ................................................................ 16
2.1.4
Study Area 4Ru: Verengery Sakhalin Island, Russia....................................... 17
2.1.5
Study Area 5PG: Bismarck Range, Papua New-Guinea.................................. 18
2.1.6
Study Area 6Ba: Barrow, Alaska ..................................................................... 19
2.2
Sampling Methods.................................................................................................... 20
2.2.1
Biodiversity GRID ........................................................................................... 20
2.2.2
Budget Constraints ........................................................................................... 21
2.2.3
Animal Species Data Collection ...................................................................... 22
2.2.4
Vegetation & Environment .............................................................................. 23
2.3
Analysis Methods ..................................................................................................... 25
2.3.1
Random Forests................................................................................................ 26
2.3.2
DISTANCE Sampling...................................................................................... 28
2.3.3
PRESENCE / Occupancy................................................................................. 29
3
Results .............................................................................................................................. 30
3.1
General Overview .................................................................................................... 30
3.2
Predictive Modeling with Random Forests .............................................................. 36
3.2.1
ROC Values by Region and Model.................................................................. 37
3.2.2
Randomly Selected vs. Systematically Selected Plots ..................................... 44
3.2.3
Aural vs. Visual Bird Detections...................................................................... 48
3.2.4
Biological Family and Order as Analysis Targets ........................................... 51
3.2.5
Covariates Identified as Important ................................................................... 54
3.3
DISTANCE Sampling.............................................................................................. 60
3.3.1
DISTANCE Sampling Results: Bird Point Transects ...................................... 60
3.3.2
DISTANCE Sampling Results: Trapping Web Catches .................................. 69
3.3.3
DISTANCE Sampling Results: Line Transect Counts .................................... 78
3.3.4
DISTANCE Sampling Results: Randomly vs. Systematically Selected Plots. 79
3.3.5
DISTANCE Sampling Results: Aural vs. Visual Bird Detections................... 82
3.3.6
DISTANCE Sampling Results: Biological Family and Order......................... 83
3.4
PRESENCE / Occupancy......................................................................................... 86
3.4.1
PRESENCE Results: Occupancy Estimates .................................................... 86
3.4.2
PRESENCE Results: Randomly vs. Systematically Selected Plots................. 89
3.4.3
PRESENCE Results: Aural vs. Visual Bird Detections................................... 90
3.4.4
PRESENCE Results: Biological Family and Order ......................................... 91
3.5
Comparing DISTANCE and PRESENCE Results................................................... 94
3.5.1
Comparing Point Transect Results ................................................................... 94
3.5.2
Comparing Trapping Web Results ................................................................... 97
4
Discussion ...................................................................................................................... 100
4.1
Discussion of Results ............................................................................................. 100
4.2
Discussion of the GRID Approach......................................................................... 103
4.3
Discussion of Sampling Methods........................................................................... 104
4.4
Discussion of Analysis Methods ............................................................................ 108
- 4 -5
6
7
Conclusions .................................................................................................................... 110
References ...................................................................................................................... 111
Appendix ........................................................................................................................ 117
7.1
Data: Biodiversity GRID Fieldsheets..................................................................... 117
7.2
Covariates by Study Area....................................................................................... 123
7.3
DISTANCE Sampling Model Definitions ............................................................. 124
7.4
PRESENCE Model Definitions ............................................................................. 146
7.5
Detailed Species Lists (Valid ITIS Taxonomy) ..................................................... 150
7.6
Random Forests Models with Hightest ROC Values............................................. 166
7.7
Allocation of Narrative Names to Biological Order/Family.................................. 184
7.8
Best Models (DISTANCE Sampling) .................................................................... 189
7.9
Best Models (PRESENCE) .................................................................................... 193
8
Declaration ..................................................................................................................... 197
Abstract:
This thesis provides important input for the development of a cost-effective global biodiversity assessment and monitoring system. The study is embedded in a larger project to evaluate possibilities of multiple-species surveys using biodiversity GRIDs. As a pilot study six GRIDs in diverse ecosystem settings are sampled. Sampling methods used for animal species are point transects for birds and trapping webs for arthropods; additionally a line transects add-on protocol is used at some study areas for amphibians, reptiles and butterflies. Within this framework the task is taken over to develop predictive models for sampled animal species with Random Forests. Additionally the data is analyzed to derive abundance estimates with multiple covariate DISTANCE sampling and occupancy estimates through the software PRESENCE.
A total of 5,007 observations from six study areas from all over the world are analyzed in detail. Total sampling time is about 12 weeks. High quality non-random predictive models with a ROC value > 0.5 are gained with Random Forests analysis for 116 described animal narratives. Half of these observations origin from point transect sampling, the other half from trapping web catches. The line transects add-on protocol results in another 3 predictive models. Abundance and occupancy estimates are derived from the data for 46 animal narratives, 23 of those for point transect data, 22 for trapping web data, and 1 for line transect data. Predictive modeling with Random Forests proves to be a very powerful tool. DISTANCE sampling estimates from this study show large confidence interval ranges, but are extremely cost-efficient to gather initial information for multiple species rapidly. PRESENCE estimates are partly unsatisfying because of a large portion of animal narratives with perfect occupancy estimates (Psi = 1.0). It is assumed that this is an effect of small sampling size which will not be problematic for larger amounts of data. This has to be kept in mind when comparing DISTANCE and PRESENCE results. Correlation between DISTANCE and PRESENCE detection probability estimates is negative, while correlation between DISTANCE abundance estimates and PRESENCE occupancy estimates is positive for all but one study area. It is recommended to repeat the comparison when data from more plots is available. On one hand the results, the cost-effectiveness of the study, and possibilities opened by this kind of multiple-species multi-method sampling are promising, on the other hand funding for this visionary approach was not available.
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