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DETERMINATION OF VALUABLE AREAS FOR MIGRATORY SONGBIRDS ALONG THE EAST-ASIAN AUSTRALASIAN FLYWAY (EEAF), AND AN APPROACH FOR STRATEGIC CONSERVATION PLANNING
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DETERMINATION OF VALUABLE AREAS FOR MIGRATORY SONGBIRDS ALONG THE EAST-ASIAN AUSTRALASIAN FLYWAY (EEAF), AND AN APPROACH FOR STRATEGIC CONSERVATION PLANNING
Beiring, Maria
Date:
2013-07
Type: Thesis
Table of Contents: 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................ 3
1.1 BACKGROUND and OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................... 3
1.2 EAST-ASIAN AUSTRALASIAN FLYWAY (EAAF) ............................................................................ 4
1.2.1 Geography .................................................................................................................... 5
1.2.2 Conservation of migratory birds along the EEAF .................................................... 12
1.3 MIGRATORY SONGBIRDS ........................................................................................................... 14
1.3.1 Avian influenza – current issue on migratory birds .................................................. 17
1.3.2 Index species ............................................................................................................... 18
1.4 SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING ............................................................................................ 23
1.5 STRATEGIC CONSERVATION PLANNING ................................................................................. 24
1.5.1 The need for Strategic Conservation Planning ....................................................... 24
1.5.2 MARXAN (VERSION 1.8.10) – a tool for Strategic Conservation Planning ............ 25
2 METHODS .................................................................................................................................... 27
2.1 DATASET ........................................................................................................................................ 27
2.1.1 Primary data ................................................................................................................ 27
2.1.2 Data integration .......................................................................................................... 28
2.1 PREDICTIVE MODELING .............................................................................................................. 29
2.2.1 Predictor and response variables ............................................................................. 29
2.2.2 TreeNet (Salford Predictive Modeler) ....................................................................... 30
2.2.3 ArcGIS ........................................................................................................................... 31
2.3. IMPLEMENTATION FOR STRATEGIC CONSERVATION PLANNING ....................................... 31
2.3.1 Preparations ................................................................................................................ 31
2.3.2 Scenarios ...................................................................................................................... 36
3 RESULTS ....................................................................................................................................... 42
3.1 PREDICTION: VALUABLE AREAS FOR MIGRATORY SONGBIRDS ......................................... 42
3.1.1 Index species ............................................................................................................... 42
3.2 STRATEGIC CONSERVATION PLANNING WITH MARXAN ...................................................... 66
4 DISCUSSION ............................................................................................................................... 87
4.1 MAIN RESULTS: PREDICTION OF VALUABLE AREAS FOR MIGRATORY SONGBIRDS .......... 87
4.2 SHORTCOMINGS OF PREDICTIVE MODELING OF HOTSPOTS............................................... 89
4.3 MAIN RESULTS: STRATEGIC CONSERVATION PLANNING WITH MARXAN ........................... 90
4.4 SHORTCOMINGS OF STRATEGIC CONSERVATION PLANNING WITH MARXAN ................ 91
4.5 SUGGESTIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS ............ 93
5 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................. 97
REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................. 101
Abstract:
Having valuable high-quality stopover sites available for migratory birds is one of the
key factors for the success of migration. However, beside the conservation of breeding
and wintering grounds, the actual protection of valuable stopover sites has often been
somewhat neglected. Overall 93 of 315 passerine species along the East-Asian
Australasian Flyway (EEAF) are declining. That’s the highest overall number of
threatened passerines on any known flyway. Additionally, the high human density in
South-East Asia and the ongoing degradation of natural resources further poses a
serious problem and threat to migratory songbirds and necessitates urgent action.
This study aims to identify valuable areas for migratory songbirds along the vast EAAF
(China, Japan, Korea, Far Eastern Russia and Alaska) and to develop a first approach
for Strategic Conservation Planning. The main methodological framework encompasses
predictive modeling (TreeNet, stochastic gradient boosting) and the Strategic
Conservation Planning Tool ‘Marxan’.
Overall, six models were created by using mistnet data (fall migration) of five selected
index species (Arctic Warbler, Yellow Wagtail, Bluethroat, Siberian Rubythroat & Black-
faced Bunting) as well as a by developing a ‘Species Richness Index’ (songbirds) and
choosing widely used predictive environmental layers.
In northern Russia and Alaska, most contiguous areas with a high index of occurrence
are concentrated on the coastline of the Pacific Rim with smaller patterns in the interior
and differences between their extents. In central-east Asia contiguous areas were
found along the coastline stretching deeper inland than for the other regions. For the
‘Species Richness Index’, valuable areas were mostly predicted for the areas along the
border of China and Russia, and comprise large parts of the Manchurian forest
(deciduous). In general, it’s notable that the characteristics of the predicted hotspots
seem to be linked to the habitat preferences of the selected songbirds during the
breeding season. At the same time the generally extensive contiguous areas with a
high index of occurrence indicate a higher variability in habitat use during fall migration
than during the breeding season, too. Moreover the results indicate broad-front
migration and putting the concept of a few and narrow migration hotspots in doubt.
Nevertheless, the areas with a high index of occurrence have to be seen in view of the
actual availability of high-quality staging sites as well.
In the framework of Strategic Conservation Planning, five reserve solution scenarios with
different focuses (Species Richness, boreal index Species, subboreal index species & all
species with consideration of vulnerable areas) were created by using a simulated
annealing algorithm implemented in Marxan. In general, only a low percentage (10 -
31 %) of the current protection network covers the reserves for the selected index
species generated by Marxan.
All reserve solutions should be seen as a first approach and public baseline for future
conservation planning processes whereby there is a need of further refinement and
assessment throughout a stakeholder’s involvement. Nevertheless, because this is the
first Top-down approach for the given study area, the results are important to
conservation planners for incorporating areas of high conservation value for migratory
songbirds.
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