Spatial and Temporal Prediction Models of Alaska’s 11 Species Mega-Predator Community: Towards a First State-wide Ecological Habitat, Impact, and Climate Assessment

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Semmler, Malte
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http://hdl.handle.net/11122/2677
Abstract
In this study, eleven mega predators, coyote (Canis latrans), wolf (Canis lupus), fox (Vulpes vulpes), arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), black bear (Ursus americanus), brown bear (Ursus arctos), polar bear (Ursus maritimus), wolverine (Gulo gulo), marten (Martes americana), lynx (Lynx canadensis) and golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) were selected to represent an Ecosystem Unit entitled “Mega Predator”. The most influential factors affecting this Ecosystem Unit were determined using a machine learning algorithm (TreeNet) and a Geographic Information System (GIS). Public available range layers were corrected for errors and detectability using occupancy model, and several ‘robust’ hotspots of the predator community were identified. Anthropogenic variables, such as proximity to railways, together with regionalized IPCC climate variables (precipitation and temperature), Alaska SNAP data and spatial variables (e.g. distance to coast) proved to be the main predictors. A second predictive TreeNet model based on climate data forecasting the next 100 years was also performed to assess the resilience of these predators. The results indicate that the Ecosystem Unit “Mega Predator” shall undergo extreme changes in the next decades, commencing in 30 years or less. The TreeNet model points to a complete shattering of the current mega predator community food chain within the next century as a direct consequence of climate change alone. Owing to the fact that IPCC models are underestimates and other factors co-occur, the findings displayed herewith are consequently underestimates. The results of the first TreeNet model and the second predictive model were used to find the optimal potential protected areas for the predator community. This prioritization search was performed with the program MARXAN. Results of the MARXAN Model indicate that the main importance of protected areas for predators lies in the Brooks Range of Northern Alaska. This study could serve as a first (digital) platform and a first step to provide a basis for landscape planners and conservationists to react properly to the upcoming impact of climate and other changes on entire ecosystems.
Table of Contents
Contents Abstract ................................................................................................. viii 1 Introduction .......................................................................................... 1 1.1 Ecological Role and Interactions of Predators .................................................. 1 1.2 Influence of Predators upon the Ecosystem ...................................................... 2 1.3 Food Web and Trophic Cascades ..................................................................... 3 1.3 Reaction of the Ecosystem to missing Apex predators ..................................... 4 1.4 Sympatric Connections of Predators in Alaska.................................................. 5 1.5 Relevant Summarized Perspectives for this Study ............................ 6 1.5.1 The Mega Predators as an Ecosystem Unit “Mega Predator” .................... 6 1.5.2 The Predator Community in Alaska ............................................................ 6 1.5.3 Assumptions for the Model ......................................................................... 8 1.6 Predator Conservation Management ................................................................ 8 1.6.1 Umbrella species ........................................................................................ 9 1.6.2 Management Indicators .............................................................................. 9 1.6.3 Focal Species ............................................................................................. 9 1.7 Science-based Conservation Management of the Mega Predator Community 10 1.8 The Mega Predator Community ...................................................................... 10 1.8.1 Canidae ........................................................................................................ 10 1.8.1.1 Coyote (Canis latrans) .............................................................................. 10 1.8.1.1.1 Distribution ....................................................................................... 11 1.8.1.1.2 Ecology ............................................................................................ 11 ii1.8.1.1.3 Home Range and Density ............................................................... 12 1.8.1.1.4 Feeding Habits ................................................................................ 12 1.8.1.2 Arctic Fox (Alopex lagopus) ...................................................................... 13 1.8.1.2.1 Distribution ...................................................................................... 13 1.8.1.2.2 Ecology ........................................................................................... 14 1.8.1.2.3 Habitat ............................................................................................. 14 1.8.1.2.4 Home Range ................................................................................... 14 1.8.1.2.6 Human Impact and Conservation Status ......................................... 15 1.8.1.3 Red Fox (Vulpes Vulpes) .......................................................................... 15 1.8.1.3.1 Distribution ...................................................................................... 15 1.8.1.3.2 Habitat ............................................................................................. 16 1.8.1.3.3 Feeding Habits and Home Rranges ................................................ 17 1.8.1.3.4 Human Impact and Conservation status ......................................... 17 1.8.1.3.5 Interspecific Interactions of foxes .................................................... 17 1.8.1.4 Gray Wolf (Canis lupus) ............................................................................ 18 1.8.1.4.1 Distribution ...................................................................................... 18 1.8.1.4.2 Habitat ............................................................................................. 18 1.8.1.4.3 Home Range ................................................................................... 19 1.8.1.4.4 Hunting and Diet ............................................................................. 19 1.8.1.4.5 Human Impact and Conservation Status ......................................... 19 1.8.2 Ursidae ......................................................................................................... 20 1.8.2.1 Black bear (Ursus americanus) ................................................................. 20 1.8.2.1.1 Distribution ...................................................................................... 20 iii1.8.2.1.2 Habitat ............................................................................................. 21 1.8.2.1.3 Home range and movement ............................................................ 21 1.8.2.1.4 Feeding Habits ................................................................................ 22 1.8.2.1.5 Behavior .......................................................................................... 22 1.8.2.1.6 Human Impact and Conservation Status ......................................... 22 1.8.2.2 Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus) .................................................................... 23 1.8.2.2.1 Distribution ...................................................................................... 23 1.8.2.2.2 Habitat ............................................................................................. 24 1.8.2.2.3 Feeding Habits ................................................................................ 24 1.8.2.2.4 Interspecific Interactions ................................................................. 25 1.8.2.2.5 Human Impact and Conservation Status ......................................... 25 1.8.2.3 Grizzly Bear (Ursus Arctos) ....................................................................... 25 1.8.2.3.1 Global Distribution ........................................................................... 26 1.8.2.3.2 Ecology ........................................................................................... 26 1.8.2.3.3 Home Range ................................................................................... 27 1.8.2.3.4 Feeding Habits ................................................................................ 27 1.8.2.3.5 Intraspecific Killing .......................................................................... 28 1.8.2.3.6 Human impact and Conservation status ......................................... 28 1.8.2.4 Wolverine (Gulo Gulo) ............................................................................... 29 1.8.2.4.1 Global Distribution ........................................................................... 29 1.8.2.4.2 Habitat ............................................................................................. 30 1.8.2.4.3 Feeding Habits ................................................................................ 30 1.8.2.4.4 Human Impact and Conservation .................................................... 31 iv1.8.2.5 Pine marten (Martes americana) ............................................................... 31 1.8.2.5.1 Distribution ...................................................................................... 31 1.8.2.5.2 Habitat ............................................................................................. 32 1.8.2.5.3 Density, Spatial Organization and Home Range ............................. 32 1.8.3 Felidae ......................................................................................................... 33 1.8.3.1 Lynx Canadensis ....................................................................................... 33 1.8.3.1.1 Global Distribution ........................................................................... 33 1.8.3.1.2 Habitat ............................................................................................. 34 1.8.3.1.3 Home Range ................................................................................... 34 1.8.3.1.4 Hunting and Diet ............................................................................. 34 1.8.3.1.5 Impact of Humans and Conservation .............................................. 35 1.8.4. Aves ............................................................................................................ 35 1.8.4.1.1 Distribution ...................................................................................... 35 1.8.4.1.2 Habitat ............................................................................................. 36 1.8.4.1.3 Home Range ................................................................................... 36 1.8.4.1.4 Ecosystem Roles ............................................................................ 37 1.8.4.1.5 Food Habits ..................................................................................... 37 1.8.4.1.6 Predation ......................................................................................... 37 1.8.4.1.7 Conservation Status ........................................................................ 37 2. Methods ............................................................................................ 41 2.1 Software .......................................................................................... 41 2.2 Building an Occupancy Model of eleven Predators in Alaska ......................... 43 2.3 Building the Model Ecosystem Unit “Mega Predator” ...................................... 43 v2.4 Geological and Environmental Variables ......................................................... 45 2.4.1 Mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) ............................. 45 2.4.2 Vegetation Classes ................................................................................... 45 2.4.3 Alaska Ecoregions Mapping ..................................................................... 46 2.4.4 Distance to roads, railways, airways, lakes, coast and towns and topographic maps .............................................................................................. 46 2.4.5 Computation of the Human Influence Index and the Human Footprint ..... 47 2.4.6 Climate layers, the General Climate Model, future Climate Prediction and Climate Change ................................................................................................. 47 2.5 Using TreeNet Algorithm for Data Mining and Climate Predictions ................. 50 2.6 Marxan Model Methods ................................................................................... 51 2.6.1 Implementing Conservation Areas for eleven Predators in Alaska ........... 51 2.6.2 Simulated annealing ................................................................................. 52 2.6.2 Questions to be answered from Marxan ................................................... 54 2.6.3 Implementation of Marxan ........................................................................ 54 2.6.4 Defining the costs for eleven Predators .................................................... 54 3 Results ............................................................................................... 56 3.1 Descriptive Maps of the Ecosystem Unit “Mega Predator” .............................. 56 3.2 Ranking of Value Importance for the Predator Community ............................. 57 3.3 Climate Predictions for the Model ................................................................... 64 3.4.1 Model Accuracy ........................................................................................ 70 3.4.2 Prediction of the Decade 2030-2039 ........................................................ 71 3.4.3 Prediction of the Decade 2060-2069 ........................................................ 72 3.4.4 Prediction of the Decade 2090-2099 ........................................................ 74 vi3.5 Near-best Solution of Protected Areas for the Eleven Mega Predator community provided by Marxan ............................................................................ 76 4.Discussion .......................................................................................... 80 4.1 Climatic Model of the Ecosystem Unit “Mega Predators of Alaska”................. 81 4.2 Potential Protected Areas ................................................................................ 83 4.3 Possible Errors of the Models ......................................................................... 85 4.4 Wildlife and Human- Influence ........................................................................ 85 5. Literature References ........................................................................ 87
Date
2010-04-04
Type
Thesis
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