• M.D. Snodgrass: The Founder Of The Alaska State Fair

      Colberg, Talis James (2008)
      This dissertation presents the life of M.D. Snodgrass as an example of how the Alaskan frontier transformed an unremarkable middle aged migrant into a socially prominent civic leader. The life of M.D. Snodgrass exemplifies how American frontier society provides ordinary people with exceptional opportunities to flourish and prosper. One of the end results of Snodgrass's taking advantage of Alaskan frontier opportunity was the Alaska State Fair. The dissertation divides the life of Snodgrass into four phases with the following findings: (1) The first thirty-one years of Snodgrass's life was spent outside of Alaska. His early life in Kansas demonstrates: the forces which formed Snodgrass, the absence of noteworthy activities and the habits he embraced that would remain constant in his long life. (2) The second thesis section documents: how upon arrival in Alaska he was immediately confronted with challenges and opportunities in the wilderness that built his self-confidence, and how he devoted most of the last six decades of his life to advancement of agriculture in Alaska. (3) The third part addresses his political career, with the following observations: the unsettled frontier society had no established upper class and he became socially mobile; being present at the creation of a political system allowed him to attain extraordinary prominence rapidly; and he learned to take risks, to lose and yet keep trying. (4) The final phase demonstrates that by definition a frontier society lacks institutions, and Snodgrass seized the opportunity to be a participant in the creation of two colleges and became the founding figure of the Alaska State Fair. The author concludes that had M.D. Snodgrass never left Kansas he probably would never have been a representative, senator, college trustee, founder of experiment stations, state presidential elector, or the founder of a state fair. A normal individual can accomplish exceptional feats in a frontier setting where the open environment encourages the development of human potential.
    • Mafic -Silicic Magma Interactions From Volcanic To Plutonic: Implications For The Evolution And Eruption Of Silicic Magma Chambers

      Chertkoff, Darren Grant; Eichelberger, John C. (2002)
      In order to investigate the role that mafic-silicic magma interactions play in the origin, evolution, and eruption of shallow crustal magma chambers, a three-part study was undertaken of both effusive (Mt. Dutton volcano, Alaska) and explosive (Volcan Ceboruco, Mexico) eruptions, as well as associated volcanic (Unalaska Formation) and plutonic (Captain's Bay pluton) suites. Major- and trace-element variations suggest that the eruptive products (both andesite and dacite) of Mt. Dutton are not simply a result of fractional crystallization, but instead are affected to varying degrees by two-component mixing of distinct and separate magmas. In this case, petrologic and geochemical evidence, as well as eruptive stratigraphy, suggests the evolution of shallow, silicic magmatic systems inferred to exist beneath small stratovolcanoes can be modeled as resulting from repeated intrusion of mantle-derived mafic magmas into shallow, silicic, crystal-rich, crustal magma chambers. Volcan Ceboruco, Mexico, erupted ~1000 years ago, producing the Jala Pumice and forming a ~4 km wide caldera. During that eruption, 2.8 to 3.5 km3 of rhyodacite magma and 0.2 to 0.5 km 3 of mixed dacite magma were tapped and deposited as the Jala Pumice. Subsequently, the caldera was partially filled by extrusion of the Dos Equis Dome, a low-silica dacite dome with a volume of ~1.3 km3. In this case, petrographic evidence indicates that the Jala and Dos Equis dacites originated largely through the mixing of three end-member magmas: (1) rhyodacite magma, (2) dacite magma, and (3) mafic magma. Study of the Captain's Bay pluton and Unalaska Formation volcanics from Unalaska Island, Alaska, indicates that whole-rock compositions between the two suites span a similar range and particular plutonic units correspond chemically to specific volcanic products. Plagioclase phenocrysts from these chemically similar units also display comparable textures and compositional zoning patterns. Most strikingly, magmatic enclaves found within the pluton show a chemical affinity to andesite lavas from the volcanic suite. In this case, mixing of melts and extrusion of hybrid lava may be a prompt response to recharge, whereas the enclaves may represent "leftovers" that thermally equilibrated with the reservoir as a whole.
    • Magmas In Motion: Degassing In Volcanic Conduits And Fabrics Of Pyroclastic Density Current

      Burgisser, Alain; Eichelberger, John (2003)
      Volcanoes are caused by the transport of magma batches from the Earth's crust to the surface. These magmas in motion undergo drastic changes of rheologic properties during their journey to the surface and this work explores how these changes affect volcanic eruptions. The first part of this study is devoted to the dynamic aspects of degassing and permeability in magmas with high pressure, high temperature experiments on natural volcanic rocks. Degassing is measured by the influence of decompression rate on the growth of the bubbles present in the magma while permeability is deduced from the temporal evolution of these bubbles. The parameterization of our results in a numerical model of volcanic conduit flow show that previous models based on equilibrium degassing overestimate the acceleration and the decompression rate of the magma. Assessing permeability effects derived form our results show that the transition between explosive and effusive eruptions is a strong function of the magma initial ascent rate. The second part of this work is a unification of two end-members of pyroclastic currents (highly concentrated pyroclastic flows and dilute, turbulent pyroclastic surges) using theoretical scaling arguments based on multiphase physics. Starting from the dynamics of the particle interactions with a fundamental eddy, we consider the full spectrum of eddies generated within a turbulent current. We demonstrate that the presence of particles with various sizes induces a density stratification of the current, leading to its segregation into a basal concentrated part overlain by a dilute cloud. To verify our predictions on the interactions of such a segregated pyroclastic current with its surroundings (hills and sea), we studied the products of the 2050 BP caldera-forming eruption of Okmok Volcano (Alaska). This field study allowed us to reconstruct the eruptive sequence and to validate the main aspects of our theoretical model, such as the superposition of a dense and dilute part, their decoupling at sea entrance and the characteristics of the particles they transport.
    • Magnetic Reconnection As A Chondrule Heating Mechanism

      Lazerson, Samuel A.; Wiechen, Heinz (2010)
      The origin of chondrules (sub-millimeter inclusions found in stony meteorites) remains today an open question despite over century of examination. The age of these proto-solar relics shows a well defined cutoff of around 4.5 billion years ago. This places them as the oldest solids in the solar system. Chemical examination indicates that they experienced heating events on the order of 5000 K/hr for periods of around 30 minutes, followed by extending periods of cooling. Additional examination indicates the presence of large magnetic fields during their formation. Most attempts to explain chondrule formation in the proto-solar nebula neglect the existence of a plasma environment, with even less mention of dust being a charge carrier (dusty plasma). Simulations of magnetic reconnection in a dusty plasma are forwarded as a mechanism for chondrule formation in the proto-solar nebula. Here large dust-neutral relative velocities are found in the reconnection region. These flows are associated with the dynamics of reconnection. The high Knudsen number of the dust particles allows for a direct calculation of frictional heating due to collisions with neutrals (allowing for the neglect of boundary layer formation around the particle). Test particle simulations produce heating equivalent to that recorded in the chondrule mineral record. It is shown that magnetic reconnection in a dusty plasma is of fundamental importance to the formation of the most primitive solids in the solar system.
    • Magnetic reconnection in the presence of sheared plasma flow

      La Belle-Hamer, Annette Louise; Lee, L. C. (1994)
      Classical models of magnetic reconnection consist of a small diffusion region bounded by two slow shocks, across which the plasma is accelerated. Most space plasma current sheets separate two different plasmas, violating symmetry conditions across the current sheet. One form of asymmetry is a sheared plasma flow. In this thesis, I investigate the magnetic reconnection process in the presence of a shear flow across the current sheet using two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations. The results show that only for sheared flow below the average Alfven velocity of the inflow regions can steady state magnetic reconnection occur. A detailed examination of the Rankine-Hugoniot jump conditions reveals that the two slow shocks of earlier models are replaced by a strong intermediate shock and a weaker slow shock in the presence of shear flow. Both symmetric and asymmetric density profiles are examined. Depending upon the direction of the flow in the adjacent inflow region, the effects from the sheared flow and the effects from the density asymmetry will compete with or enhance each other. The results are applied to the dayside and flank regions of the magnetosphere. For tailward flow in the flanks, the two asymmetries compete making the magnetic field transition layer broad with the high speed flow contained within the transition region. For the dayside region, the magnetic field transition region is thin and the accelerated flow is earthward of the sharp current layer (magnetopause). These results are consistent with the data. A velocity shear in the invariant direction was examined under otherwise symmetric conditions. With the magnetic field initially only in the $x-y$ plane, $B\sb{z},$ and consequently field-aligned current, is generated by the initial $v\sb{z}.$ The field-aligned current depends on the velocity profiles in all directions. For a velocity sheared in both the z and the y direction, the results show a very localized region of large field-aligned currents.
    • Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations Of Plasma Dynamics In The Magnetospheric Cusp Region

      Adamson, Eric T.; Otto, Antonius (2012)
      The Earth's magnetospheric cusp regions are rich in interesting plasma physics. The geomagnetic cusps offer solar wind plasma a relatively easy entry point into the magnetosphere through magnetic reconnection with the interplanetary magnetic field. The cusp regions are characterized by various interesting and important observations such as low energy particle precipitation, significant outflow of ionospheric material, and the frequent presence of energetic particles in regions of depressed magnetic field strength. The physical mechanisms that lead to these observations is often unresolved, for instance the acceleration mechanism for energetic cusp populations is not understood, nor is it known what implications they may have on magnetospheric dynamics. It is however, well accepted that magnetic reconnection plays a critical role in the vicinity of the cusps and is likely responsible for much of the dynamics in the region. Modeling of the geomagnetic cusps is notoriously challenging. Global magnetospheric models have proven indispensable in the study of the interaction of the solar wind plasma with the Earth's magnetosphere, however, the exterior cusp region poses a significant challenge for these models due to their relatively small scale. I have developed a mesoscale cusp-like magnetic field model in order to provide a better resolution (up to 300 km) of the entire cusp region than is possible in these global models. Typical observational features of the high-altitude cusps are well reproduced by the simulation. Results for both strongly northward and strongly southward interplanetary magnetic field indicate extended regions of depressed magnetic field and strongly enhanced plasma beta (cusp diamagnetic cavities). The Alfvenic nature of the outer boundary between the cusp and magnetosheath, in addition to the flow characteristics in the region, indicate that magnetic reconnection plays an important role in structuring the high-altitude cusp region. The inner boundaries with magnetosphere are gradual transitions forming a clear funnel. These cavities further present a unique configuration in which reconnecting magnetic flux tubes may gain a significant amount of flux tube entropy (H = p1/gammaV) through topological changes due to magnetic reconnection.
    • Magnetospheric imaging of EUV emissions at 83.4 and 30.4 nm wavelengths

      Garrido, Dante Espino; Smith, R. W. (1994)
      Magnetospheric images are constructed from resonant scattering of emissions by He$\sp+$ 30.4-nm and O$\sp+$ 83.4-nm ions from different spatial locations to study the structure of the intensities and its relation to the distribution of He$\sp+$ and O$\sp+$ ions around the Earth. The image intensities at these EUV wavelengths were obtained from a knowledge of ion scattering rates and available data on ion densities. This particular approach is called forward modelling and consists of the calculation of simulated EUV images of the magnetosphere. Different regions in the magnetosphere have been considered in this study to determine the dependence of the image intensities on ion energies and ion drift speeds with respect to the Sun-Earth line. Hot O$\sp+$ ions in the energy range from 1 keV to 50 keV are present in the plasma sheet with typical densities of the order of 0.1 ions cm$\sp{-3}$ arising during disturbed times. Image intensities of the order of a few millirayleighs were obtained in our simulations for these densities. During quiet times the densities are of the order of 0.05 ions cm$\sp{-3}.$ The reduction of the image intensities as a result of Doppler shifts caused by ion motion relative to the Sun-Earth line is discussed in detail and the effects of ion dynamics (particle acceleration) in the polar cap on the image intensities have also been analyzed for both He$\sp+$ and O$\sp+$ ions. The possibility of detecting polar outflows may also depend on the location of the imager. Simulated images of the plasmasphere and trough regions in both 30.4-nm and 83.4-nm wavelengths have been obtained to reflect the relative abundance of the ions in these regions. Photometric intensities of He$\sp+$ at 30.4 nm were obtained from a spinning rocket at an altitude of 435 km. The different viewing angles covered a wide range of regions in the magnetosphere, and this particular rocket geometry offered the possibility of obtaining the He$\sp+$ ion distribution from the measured intensities. This method (forward inversion) can be applied to 2-D images and it is shown that it is possible to extract 3-D ion distributions from the images.
    • Magnus' expansion as an approximation tool for ordinary differential equations

      Carlson, Tim (2005-05)
      Magnus' expansion approximates the solution of a linear, nonconstant-coefficient system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) as the exponential of an infinite series of integrals of commutators of the matrix-valued coefficient function. It generalizes a standard technique for solving first-order, scalar, linear ODEs. However, much about the convergence of Magnus' expansion and its efficient computation is not known. This thesis describes in detail the derivation of Magnus' expansion and reviews Iserles' ordering for efficient calculation. Convergence of the expansion is explored and known convergence estimates are applied. Finally, Magnus' expansion is applied to several numerical examples, keeping track of convergence as it depends on parameters. These examples demonstrate the failure of current convergence estimates to correctly account for the degree of commutativity of the matrix-valued coefficient function.
    • The maiden's firestorm

      Aruffo, Heather; Soos, Frank; Johnson, Sara Eliza; Carr, Rich (2019-05)
      The Maiden's Firestorm is a work of speculative fiction set in the fictional Solonian Worker's Republic, a country reminiscent of the Soviet Union in the 1940s. Geopolitically, the novel centers around the conflict between the Solonian Worker's Republic and the nomadic Kyzare, an ethnic group with terrifying telepathic abilities caused by an element called Yinitrium. The story is told through the point of view of two adult children of a mixed race Kyzare-Solonian family, who must navigate the consequences of their marginalized identities in a hostile world. The first point of view follows Rakell, an engineering student who is recruited to work on a top secret weapons project, and is given the choice between Party membership and denouncing her mother, a former Worker's Party member. The second point of view follows Rakell's older brother Yeordan, who is forced by the Solonian state to spy on their estranged father, a Kyzare nationalist in charge of the Mind Warriors. The stories are interwoven throughout the novel, and are used to develop themes of political and familial loyalty, as well as nationalism, and the role of personal relationships under extenuating circumstances. The novel uses speculative fiction to address real world historical and political questions. The relationship between the Kyzare's telepathic abilities and Yinitrium allows the speculative elements to function as metaphor, and mirrors Solonian attempts to weaponize Yinitrium. In this way, power is explored as a theme, as both groups use the element to exert control over the continent.
    • Maiyumerak Creek: late prehistoric subsistence and seasonality in northwest Alaska

      Shirar, Scott (2007-12)
      The Maiyumerak Creek Site (XBM-131) is a late prehistoric site located near the confluence of Maiyumerak Creek and the Noatak River in the Noatak National Preserve, Alaska. Excavations conducted at the site by the National Park Service during the 2006 field season focused on one of eight identified house pits. This thesis focuses on the faunal remains and artifacts collected from the living floor of this house (House Pit 8). The analysis centers on answering how subsistence resource use is reflected in the artifact and faunal assemblages and the relationship between these two classes of data. I also analyze the faunal remains to make an assessment of site seasonality.
    • Major impediments to a feasibility study in the case of Smith Bay development

      Hullavarad, Nilima V.; Perkins, Robert A.; Hulsey, J. Leroy; Connor, Billy G. (2017-05)
      The State of Alaska is one of the energy-producing states which rely on revenue from energy extraction, but faces several challenges, especially significant fluctuations in revenue generated by taxes. In the past, oil production from established oil fields on state land yielded sufficient tax revenue. For new sources of oil, oil company owners must make a decision about developing the prospects based on a feasibility study which produces preliminary design, cost estimates, project schedule, including many permits and other uncertainties, financing, and tax credits. When this study is done, the decision can be made to begin development. This paper considers the feasibility studies on main obstacles in the development path of Smith Bay. The evaluation of major tasks needed for a feasibility study, uncertainty and obstacles, combined with our estimation of the time period required for the oil fields to produce oil, led to an estimate of the time before tax money will be provided to the state.
    • Major nutrient distribution in relation to the physical structure of the Gulf of Alaska shelf

      Childers, Amy Ruehs (2001-08)
      The northern Gulf of Alaska is a biologically productive downwelling shelf. Nutrient sources supporting such productivity have not been adequately studied. Thirteen primary stations were occupied twelve times throughout 1998 and 1999 in an attempt to clarify nutrient distributions and sources. The shelf waters were warmer, fresher, lower in nitrate, and higher in phytoplankton biomass in the spring of 1998 compared to 1999. Nitrate, silicate, and phosphate were positively correlated with salinity indicating an offshore nutrient source. The largest rates of new production, estimated from nitrate drawdown in the upper layer between March and July/August, were 2.6 mmole nitrate m⁻² day⁻¹ in 1998 and 1.9 mmole nitrate m⁻² day⁻¹ in 1999. There was evidence of a summer onshore flux of dense, nutrient-rich bottom water when the downwelling regime relaxed or reversed. This seasonal flux was 20% less than the estimated nitrate flux through nearby Hinchinbrook Canyon.
    • The malleability of disciplinary identity

      Mericle, Megan E.; Stanley, Sarah; Farmer, Daryl; Brightwell, Gerri; Harney, Eileen (2017-05)
      This paper tracks the progress of a beginning undergraduate writer's disciplinary becoming. Much research in disciplinary identity focuses on graduate students and advanced undergraduate writers; however, sites of disciplinary identity formation also occur early on during the required first-year writing course. These sites are crucial because they inform the student writer's entrance into the academic conversation, and reveal the extent to which early assumptions about disciplinary roles affects further disciplinary identity formation. Drawing from Ivanič's framework of writer identity, this case study reveals the ever-shifting tensions of "disciplinary becoming." The analysis captures how a writer's discursive self shifts from a static disciplinary identity to a more malleable disciplinary identity through a cross-analysis of two separate writing assignments in order to learn how the student's petroleum engineer identity is performed, contradicted and re-negotiated. I argue that this shift will enable writing knowledge transfer and overall identity formation.
    • Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be cowboys: stories

      Goerger, Steve (2006-05)
      The stories of Mamas, Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to Be Cowboys employ surreal plots and fabulist forms in an attempt to uncover the awe and wonder hidden in even the most trivial, mundane aspects of human life. The narrator of the title story, a time-traveling interstellar policeman, confronts the reality that his astounding occupation cannot gain him what he most desires, love; yet the confrontation itself rewards him with a tiny glimpse of love's existence. In 'L'Ecole du Ciel, ' the protagonist finds himself in a purgatory-cum-schoolhouse, where he must unlearn the futile knowledge he gained on Earth and submit unequivocally to his merciless school mistress. The result is a Candide like resolution; it suggests, as do all of these stories, that we 'cultivate our garden' and leave well-enough alone.
    • Mammalian mismatch repair: hotspots and protein complexes

      Matton, Nancy (2000-05)
      Deficiencies in DNA mismatch repair have been found in hereditary cancers as well as in sporadic cancers, illustrating the importance of mismatch repair in maintaining genomic integrity. To determine if inefficient mismatch repair can contribute to hotspots of mutation, repair rates were determined 'in vivo' in mammalian cells for mismatched nucleotides located at H-ras codon 10 and compared to previously determined repair rates at a nearby activating hotspot of mutation, H-ras codon 12. Repair rates for H-ras codon 10 are significantly improved over repair rates at codon 12. This indicates that inefficiencies in mismatch repair are responsible, at least in part, for the well-documented hotspot of mutation at codon 12 and that surrounding sequence context can effect repair of mismatches. Gel-shift analysis demonstrates that the degree of binding by the initial mismatch recognition factor hMutS[alpha] (heterodimer of hMSH6 and hMSH2) correlates with 'in vivo' repair rates for each mismatch tested at the codon 12 location. UV cross-linking of nuclear proteins to G:A and G:T mismatches at codon 10 or codon 12 generally confirm these results. Overall this suggests that there is lowered efficiency in the kinetics of mismatch repair at codon 12, perhaps in the initiation step, rather than innaccurate repair leading to mutation. The interactions of specific mismatch repair proteins in human nuclear extracts were then examined to determine the proteins binding to mismatched DNA. Immunoprecipitation followed by Western blotting indicates two novel complexes that exist in the absence of ATP: one consisting of hMSH2, hMSH6, hMLH1 and hPMS2 and the other consisting of hMSH2, hMSH6, hMLH1 and hPMS1. Furthermore, the protein complexes specifically bind to mismatched DNA and not to a similar homoduplex oligonucleotide. The protein complex-DNA interactions occur primarily through hMSH6, although hMSH2 can also become cross-linked to the mismatched substrate. In the presence of ATP, the binding of hMSH6 to mismatched DNA is decreased. In addition, hMLH1, hPMS2 and hPMS1 no longer interact with each other or with the hMutS[alpha] complex. However, the ability of hMLH1 to co-immunoprecipitate mismatched DNA 'increases' in the presence of ATP, suggesting a role for hMLH1 in subsequent ATP-dependent repair processes.
    • Management implications of moving from a traditional structured systems development methodology to object-orientation

      Tomasic, Jinlan (2003-05)
      As software application systems become larger and more complex, many software employers and managers believe that the key to sustaining its competitive advantage in the computing technology market lies in its software engineering capabilities. Software crisis situation seems to be a common occurrence in the software development environment as systems become larger and more complex. Object Orientation (OO) has been proposed as a viable alternative to traditional approach (i.e., structured techniques), an approach that many hope will solve the current software crisis. 00 is a new paradigm, and it requires new types of knowledge, new specialists, and significant changes in the mindset, an entirely different way of thinking, representing and solving a problem. The transition of moving toward the 00 from the traditional approach may involve a high risk of failure if the managers do not understand the nature of paradigm shifts and do not anticipate the future. The problem of moving to 00 has become very important. An understanding of potential problems from migrating to the new paradigm helps managers make a smoother paradigm shift. The implications and challenges of the 00 paradigm are presented. The study suggests that Object-Oriented System Development (OOSD) requires more discipline, management and training than traditional software development does. Education and experience are keys for the success of any OOSD project.
    • Management of large interdisciplinary team science projects: a multi-methods approach to examining competencies

      Veazey, Alice Danielson; Monahan, John; Cahill, Catherine; Daniel, Mary Jo; Taylor, Karen (2017-05)
      Over the past fifty years, the world has experienced a significant increase in the scale and complexity of scientific research that is focused on society's most important issues. This type of research requires a team approach from people with diverse skill sets working together across multiple disciplines, and that trend is reflected in a significant rise in collaborative research. "Team science" is the focus of research efforts intent on better understanding the challenges and maximizing the effectiveness of collaborative research. Projects that involve large teams of scientists require a thoughtful and planned approach to leadership and management in order to achieve the stated goals and outcomes. The science community has recognized that in order to run effective team science projects, people must identify the knowledge, skills, attitudes, values and beliefs that define the competency set for large-scale team science leadership and management. This study used a mixed-methods approach to obtain both quantitative and qualitative data through group concept mapping to develop a concept map of the competencies required to lead and manage large, interdisciplinary team science programs. These results were then used as a lens to examine the competencies identified through the content analysis of hiring documents for positions related to a broad spectrum of team science efforts. Expert team science managers defined a list of five critical competencies: project management, shared leadership, personal competence, social competence and communication. Analysis revealed that hiring practices do not identify these skill sets in position descriptions and announcements, typically focusing on project management and communication and neglecting the remaining three competencies. In order to hire people capable of managing large science teams, hiring practices, training programs and career tracks must be developed and align with these core competencies.
    • Managing The National Wildlife Refuge System With Climate Change: The Interaction Of Policy, Perceptions, And Ecological Knowledge

      Magness, Dawn Robin (2009)
      The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) is committed to conserving fish, wildlife, and plants for current and future generations of Americans. Given a rapidly changing climate, managers may employ various adaptation strategies to meet legislated mandates. I explore how ecological context, policy, perceptions and available ecological knowledge inform adaptation strategies. In Chapter 2, I develop an ecosystem vulnerability framework to better understand how climate change risk and ecosystem resilience interact to impact the NWRS. With GIS, I rank refuges based on historic temperature change, historic precipitation change, and sea-level rise risk. To index resilience, I rank refuges based on refuge size, landscape road density, and elevation range. Using this GIS analysis and the ecosystem vulnerability framework, I categorize the 527 refuges into four groups (refugia, ecosystem maintenance, facilitate transitions, and experiments in natural adaptation) that provide a necessary context for national, strategic adaptation planning. In Chapter 3, I survey 32% of NWRS biologists and managers to understand how policy and their perceptions of climate change influence adaptation choice. Currently, managers and biologists independently decide if climate change is natural or anthropogenic for wildlife management, and this conceptualization becomes important for deciding whether reactionary or anticipatory adaptation approaches are more appropriate. Although respondents considered practicability, they prefer historic condition. Respondents also prefer ecosystems and species adapt naturally. In a rapidly changing climate, natural adaptation may not be feasible without large-scale extinction. Nonetheless, many biologists and managers are uncomfortable with the alternative of manipulating ecosystems and species assemblages toward future conditions. Finally, understanding climate change impacts requires the analysis of complex ecological relationships over time and this complexity creates another barrier for implementing a national adaptation strategy. In Chapter 4, using a data-mining approach on data from scaled-down GCMs and an atypical monitoring approach, I build bioclimatic envelope models to show how the distributions of two passerines will potentially shift in response to climate change over the next 100 years on Kenai National Wildlife Refuge. In order to effectively manage species within the context of strategic adaptation planning, the NWRS must design future biological monitoring approaches with spatial modeling in mind.