• Comprehensive Investigation Into Historical Pipeline Construction Costs And Engineering Economic Analysis Of Alaska In-State Gas Pipeline

      Rui, Zhenhua; Metz, Paul; Chen, Gang; Zhou, Xiyu; Reynolds, Douglas (2011)
      This study analyzes historical cost data of 412 pipelines and 220 compressor stations. On the basis of this analysis, the study also evaluates the feasibility of an Alaska in-state gas pipeline using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Analysis of pipeline construction costs shows that component costs, shares of cost components, and learning rates for material and labor costs vary by diameter, length, volume, year, and location. Overall average learning rates for pipeline material and labor costs are 6.1% and 12.4%, respectively. Overall average cost shares for pipeline material, labor, miscellaneous, and right of way (ROW) are 31%, 40%, 23%, and 7%, respectively. Regression models are developed to estimate pipeline component costs for different lengths, cross-sectional areas, and locations. An analysis of inaccuracy in pipeline cost estimation demonstrates that the cost estimation of pipeline cost components is biased except for in the case of total costs. Overall overrun rates for pipeline material, labor, miscellaneous, ROW, and total costs are 4.9%, 22.4%, -0.9%, 9.1%, and 6.5%, respectively, and project size, capacity, diameter, location, and year of completion have different degrees of impacts on cost overruns of pipeline cost components. Analysis of compressor station costs shows that component costs, shares of cost components, and learning rates for material and labor costs vary in terms of capacity, year, and location. Average learning rates for compressor station material and labor costs are 12.1% and 7.48%, respectively. Overall average cost shares of material, labor, miscellaneous, and ROW are 50.6%, 27.2%, 21.5%, and 0.8%, respectively. Regression models are developed to estimate compressor station component costs in different capacities and locations. An investigation into inaccuracies in compressor station cost estimation demonstrates that the cost estimation for compressor stations is biased except for in the case of material costs. Overall average overrun rates for compressor station material, labor, miscellaneous, land, and total costs are 3%, 60%, 2%, -14%, and 11%, respectively, and cost overruns for cost components are influenced by location and year of completion to different degrees. Monte Carlo models are developed and simulated to evaluate the feasibility of an Alaska in-state gas pipeline by assigning triangular distribution of the values of economic parameters. Simulated results show that the construction of an Alaska in-state natural gas pipeline is feasible at three scenarios: 500 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd), 750 mmcfd, and 1000 mmcfd.
    • Modeling Of Depressurization And Thermal Reservoir Simulation To Predict Gas Production From Methane -Hydrate Formations

      Patil, Shirish L.; Chen, Gang; Huang, Scott L.; Sonwalkar, Vikas S.; Reynolds, Douglas B. (2007)
      Gas hydrates represent a huge potential future resource of natural gas. However, significant technical issues need to be resolved before this enormous resource can be considered to be an economically producible reserve. Developments in numerical reservoir simulations give useful information in predicting the technical and economic analysis of the hydrate-dissociation process. For this reason, a commercial reservoir simulator, CMG (Computer Modeling Group) STARS (Steam, Thermal, and Advanced Processes Reservoir Simulator) has been adapted in this study to model gas hydrate dissociation caused by several production mechanisms (depressurization, hot water injection and steam injection). Even though CMG is a commercially available simulator capable of handling thermal oil recovery processes, the novel approach of this work is the way by which the simulator was modified by formulating a kinetic and thermodynamic model to describe the hydrate decomposition. The simulator can calculate gas and water production rates from a well, and the profiles of pressure, temperature and saturation distributions in the formation for various operating conditions. Results indicate that a significant amount of gas can be produced from a hypothetical hydrate formation overlying a free gas accumulation by several different production scenarios. However, steam injection remarkably improves gas production over depressurization and hot water injection. A revised axisymmetric model for simulating gas production from hydrate decomposition in porous media by a depressurization method is also presented. Self-similar solutions are obtained for constant well pressure and fixed natural gas output. A comparison of these two boundary conditions at the well showed that a higher gas flow rate can be achieved in the long run in the case of constant well pressure over that of fixed gas output in spite of slower movement of the dissociation front. For different reservoir temperatures and various well boundary conditions, distributions of temperature and pressure profiles, as well as the gas flow rate in the hydrate zone and the gas zone, are evaluated.