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Recent Submissions

  • 2004 Alaska Construction Spending Forecast

    Goldsmith, Scott; Killorin, Mary (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2004)
    We estimate total construction spending in Alaska in 2004 will be $5.315 billion, about the same as last year. Private spending will be $3.250 billion, or 61 percent of the total. Public spending will contribute $2.065 billion, or 39 percent.
  • Sustainable Development and Sustainable Income from Alaska's Resources

    Berman, Matthew (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2003)
    I consider the definition and measurement of sustainable development for a resource rich region such as Alaska, reviewing the evolution of so-called green accounting and discussing appropriate applications to small open regional economies. I then investigate how much of the rapid economic growth Alaska experienced in the three decades following passage of the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act (ANCSA) constituted sustainable development. Estimates of sustainable income suggest that even after adjusting for depletion of nonrenewable resources, the state’s economy was nearly three times larger at the end of the 1990s than it had been in 1971. Although oil assets declined, tourism, air cargo, and other sustainable industries grew, as did income from state savings accounts set aside from petroleum revenues. Despite the growth of Native corporations created under ANCSA, the locally controlled portion of Alaska's economy continues to decline.
  • Charting New Courses for Alaska Salmon Fisheries: the Legal Waters

    Cullenberg, Paula; Killorin, Mary (Marine Advisory Program, University of Alaska, 2003)
    Alaska’s commercial salmon industry is in an economic crisis. Competition from farmed salmon, changes in consumer demand, and a worldwide economic slowdown—together with smaller sockeye salmon runs—are reducing the value of Alaska’s salmon harvest. This crisis has prompted discussions among fishermen, processors, fishery managers, and government officials about how to help the salmon industry. Part of the discussion has focused on options for “restructuring” the management of salmon fisheries to reduce costs, increase value, or steer more of the benefits to Alaskans and their communities. To help Alaskans better understand the legal and constitutional issues associated with restructuring the salmon fisheries, the University of Alaska’s Marine Advisory Program and Institute for Social and Economic Research, along with the Washington Sea Grant Program, sponsored a workshop in October 2002. Lawyers with expertise in Alaska natural resources and fisheries law answered questions about different options for restructuring.
  • Alaska Seafood Market Changes and Challenges

    Knapp, Gunnar (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2003)
    This presentation outlines research identifying changes in Alaska seafood markets. Particular focus is given to the impact of globalization, increased development of aquaculture, marketing challenges, and strategies for more effective marketing. Presented to Alaska Fisheries Marketing Board
  • Options For Restructuring Alaska Salmon Fisheries

    Knapp, Gunnar (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2003)
    The paper provides a very brief introduction to the very complicated topic of options for restructuring Alaska salmon fisheries. By "restructuring" we mean any change in the rules affecting how, where, when, and by whom, salmon are harvested in Alaska. The main goal of this paper is to show that there are many different ways to go about restructuring. the choices are not simply between broad options such as "permit stacking" or "buybacks" or "co-ops", but also - and critically - how those options are designed and implemented. Prepared for a panel discussion for the Alaska Legislature's Fish Caucus on "Restructuring the Salmon Industry: A discussion of Fishery Management Models".
  • Healthy Nations Initiative Evaluation: The Stories and Lessons of Fighting Substance Abuse in Native American Communities

    May, Philip; Taylor, Timothy; Moss, Randy (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2003)
    In this program, tribes and urban American Indian organizations were invited to submit proposals for projects to address their high-priority health problems, emphasizing activities to prevent illness and injury and to improve the health of infants, children, youth, and the elderly. Although the 15 grantees selected in Healthy Nations were a diverse group, ranging from the Eastern Band of Cherokee in North Carolina to the Norton Sound Health Corporation in Alaska, there were many similarities in their strategies. The grantees' prevention worldview began with "culture" including its dynamic for community acceptance. Program mobilization followed a "recreation" (most frequently based on traditional activities) strategy targeting youth and families. This report will present the stories of these grantees—their successes, the obstacles they have overcome, the challenges that were met.
  • FAA Capstone Program: Phase I Interim Safety Study (2002)

    Berman, Matthew (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2003)
    The Capstone Phase I area is a geographic region from 58° to 64° north latitude and 155° to 167° west longitude (Figure 1-1, next page). Nearly all the Capstone Phase I ground systems and avionics are in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta within the Capstone area. Bethel is the aviation center of the delta. It is also the largest community in the Y-K Delta and the economic, governmental, and cultural center of the region. Aniak to the northeast and St. Marys to the northwest are also economic and mail distribution hubs for the delta. The economic, social, political, cultural, and regulatory factors affecting aviation safety in the Y-K Delta—and the Capstone-equipped aircraft flying there—are the focus of this report. The Capstone area does include communities outside the Y-K Delta—Iliamna, Unalakleet, Dillingham, King Salmon and McGrath— but the focus of Capstone activity is aircraft and flight activity based in Bethel, Aniak, and St. Marys. This report builds on two previous reports, Air Safety in Southwest Alaska – Capstone Baseline Safety Report (baseline report) and the Capstone Phase I Interim Safety Study, 2000/2001 (interim study).
  • FAA Capstone Program: Phase II Baseline Report (Southeast Alaska)

    Berman, Matthew; Daniels, Wayne; Brian, Jerry; Hill, Alexandra; Kirk, Leonard; Martin, Stephanie; Seger, Jason; Wiita, Amy (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2003)
    This report provides the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) with information on air safety and aviation infrastructure in southeast Alaska as of December 31, 2002. The data will establish a baseline to enable the University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA) to conduct an independent evaluation of how the Capstone program affects aviation safety in the region. The FAA contracted with UAA’s Institute of Social and Economic Research and Aviation Technology Division to do a variety of training and evaluation tasks related to the Capstone program. The program is a joint effort of industry and the FAA to improve aviation safety and efficiency in select regions of Alaska, through government-furnished avionics equipment and improvements in ground infrastructure.
  • Sustainable Utilities in Rural Alaska Effective Management, Maintenance, and Operation of Electric, Water, Sewer, Bulk Fuel, Solid Waste Final Report Part A: Overview

    Goldsmith, Scott; Wiita, Amy; Colt, Steve; Foster, Mark (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2003)
    Two reports are provided Part A is an overview - reliable and affordable utility services remain out of reach for thousands of Alaskans and between $1.5 and $2 billion of public investment is potentially at risk due to the inadequate operations, maintenance, and management of electric, water, sewer, bulk fuel, and solid waste utilities in many small rural Alaska communities. This report provides a foundation of facts and ideas that can be used to move toward sustainable utilities in these places. Part B contains supporting material and examines the maintenance, management, and operation of rural Alaska utilities.
  • Alaska Electric Power Statistics (with Alaska Energy Balance) 1960-2001

    Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2003)
    Prior to 1985, the federal Alaska Power Administration published the Alaska Electric Power Statistics. Then, the Alaska Energy Authority (formerly the Alaska Power Authority) began gathering statistical data and publishing this annual report. In 1988, the Alaska Electric Power Statistics report became a combined effort between the Alaska Systems Coordinating Council and the Alaska Energy Authority. Beginning in 1993, the report became a joint effort between the Alaska Systems Coordinating Council and the Department of Community and Regional Affairs, Division of Energy. After the 1995 no further reports were published until this year. This twenty-second edition of the Alaska Electric Power Statistics has been prepared by the Institute of Social and Economic Research of the University of Alaska Anchorage with funding provided by the Alaska Energy Authority, the Regulatory Commission of Alaska, and the Denali Commission. The data is presented using the same regional definitions as in past reports, but since some utilities have operations that span more than a single region, their combined operations characteristics are also reported. In addition we present a breakdown of operations between the Railbelt utilities, the Power Cost Equalization utilities, and all other. Finally, an entirely new section has been added to the report that describes the production and consumption of all energy in the state.
  • University of Alaska Engineering Programs: A Community View

    Killorin, Mary; DeRoche, Patricia (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2003)
    The University of Alaska is developing a strategic plan for using its engineering resources to meet the needs of the engineering community. The goal of the university is to graduate enough engineers to meet the current and anticipated employment needs in engineering, as well as to provide appropriate professional development courses. Working from a list provided by the UAF and UAA engineering deans, we conducted 35 interviews with representatives of 30 private companies and government agencies. This report summarizes what we learned in those interviews. We start with a description of our methodology (including a summary of the limited information we were able to collect on the numbers and types of engineers employed by organizations we surveyed). In the main part of the report we present a qualitative analysis of respondents’ answers, grouped under four headings—current and future needs for engineers; ability of the University of Alaska engineering programs to meet the employment needs of the engineering community; recommended changes and initiatives for the university’s engineering programs; and observations to share. We then summarize our conclusions. Appendixes A and B present our letter to respondents and our telephone interview script.
  • Anchorage Economic Forecast, 2003

    Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2003)
    Anchorage’s economic performance for 2002 was in sharp contrast to the national economy which saw a decline in jobs and a marked increase in the unemployment rate. The Anchorage unemployment rate inched up during the year to an annual average of 4.6 percent but remained well below the national average of 5.8. This report provides a forecast for job growth in sectors that are currently important to the sponsors of the report. AEDC predicts 1,750 jobs will be added to the Anchorage economy in 2003, an increase of 1.3 percent. As in years past, most of these new jobs will be in the fast growing service sector. Trade, utilities, government, and construction will also contribute to the growth. Petroleum and manufacturing employment should remain constant. Anchorage will continue to outperform the US economy. This forecast was updated in July 2003. That update summarizes changes by mid-year.
  • The Kodiak National Wildlife Refuge: Economic Importance

    Goldsmith, Scott; Brian, Jerry; Hill (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2003)
    In this regional economic assessment, we focus primarily on an economic significance analysis; we present a brief economic impact analysis as well. Both are useful for policy analysis, but each measures a different dimension of economic activity. The economic significance of a refuge is a measure of the total number of jobs and the total household income generated by expenditures associated with the management of each refuge, by expenditures of refuge visitors, and by expenditures for the harvest and other use of refuge resources. In Alaska these expenditures directly create jobs for Fish and Wildlife Service employees, for people employed in businesses serving the recreation industry, and for commercial fishermen. Additional jobs are created by expenditures of the Fish and Wildlife Service and by businesses for procuring supplies and services. As these government and private sector workers spend their incomes, jobs in other sectors of the economy are created through a process known as the multiplier effect. The total number of jobs created by expenditures for management and use of the refuge is consequently greater than just the number directly created. The purpose of this study is to develop a regional economic assessment of the Kodiak National Wildlife Refuge in southwestern Alaska. This assessment will be used to help update the Comprehensive Conservation Plan for the refuge, as required under section 304 of the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA).
  • Effects of the 2002 Chignik Cooperative: A Survey of Chignik Salmon Permit Holders

    DeRoche, Patricia; Hill, Alexandra; Knapp, Gunnar; Silver, Darla (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2003)
    This report presents the results of a survey of Chignik Salmon Purse Seine permit holders about management changes in the Chignik salmon fishery and the effects of the 2002 Chignik salmon cooperative. In January 2002, the Alaska Board of Fisheries passed regulations that established criteria and management measures for a cooperative fishery in the Chignik purse seine salmon fishery. Under the regulations, if 51 or more Chignik permit holders chose to join a cooperative, the cooperative would receive an allocation of a percentage of the Chignik sockeye salmon harvest. The purpose of the regulations was to allow permit holders the opportunity to fish cooperatively to reduce costs, improve quality and increase value by reducing the number of vessels fishing and slowing down the fishery. Permit holders who chose not to join the cooperative could fish in an “open” or “independent” fishery with a separate allocation. Subsequently the Chignik Seafood Producers Alliance (CSPA) formed as a cooperative in accordance with the new regulations. In 2002, 77 Chignik permit holders joined the Co-op, 22 permit holders chose to fish independently in the open fishery, and 1 permit holder did not join the cooperative and also did not fish. This report is based on the 89 survey responses that we received by January 15, 2003. (An earlier report was based on the 80 responses received by December 3, 2002.)
  • Fiscal and Economic Analysis of Homer Town Square Proposed Development Alternatives

    Colt, Steve (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2003)
    This report presents a fiscal and economic analysis of potential development within the Homer Town Square area. We first consider current land use patterns and tax revenues. We then estimate the fiscal and economic effects of a development scenario provided by Christopher Beck and Associates. Fiscal effects are measured by property and sales tax revenue. Economic effects are measured by employment within Homer. Finally, we report empirical results from a broad national sample of similar efforts to promote economic development and quality of life through improvements to downtown areas and commercial centers. The “existing trends” scenario attempts to account for trends and events that are likely occur in the absence of specific new development initiatives in the study area. The “town square” scenario accounts for changes that will happen with the focused development of a town square development initiative. The difference between the two scenarios in a variable of interest – such as property taxes -- is the effect that we can reasonably attribute to the town square development itself. Commercial taxable sales within the study area increase over 5 years to become about 50% higher in 2008 under the town square scenario, yielding about $1.2 million in additional sales tax revenue to Homer and an additional $680,000 of additional sales tax revenue to the Kenai Peninsula Borough. Property taxes from the study area increase by 2008 to a level 35% higher than under existing trends, yielding an additional $79,000 in property tax revenue to the city and an additional $133,000 in property tax revenues to the borough, college, and hospital.
  • Evaluation of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Water and Sanitation Project in the Village of Buckland, Alaska - Phase 2

    Haley, Sharman; Wiita, Amy (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2003)
    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is the lead agency for a multi-year sanitation pilot project in the village of Buckland, in Alaska's Northwest Arctic Borough. Providing safe drinking water and sewage disposal for rural communities has been and continues to be a major public policy goal in Alaska. The federal and state governments have spent more than $1 billion building sewer and water facilities in rural Alaska in the past several decades, but many unsafe and inadequate water and sewer systems remain. A wide range of government agencies and Native organizations have been involved in rural sanitation projects, but until recently one notable exception was the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The corps has regulatory authority over and provides technical expertise for water-related projects across Alaska—for example, oil, gas, and mining activities that affect wetlands. But historically it has not been involved in providing sanitation systems in rural Alaska. That changed in 1997, when Congress asked the corps to apply its expertise with cold region design, construction, and operation of water and sewer facilities to projects in rural Alaska. This report evaluates just the planning and the phase one design activities of that pilot project. The Environmental Protection Agency hired the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) to do this evaluation.
  • Methods for Rural / Non-Rural Determinations for Federal Subsistence Management in Alaska - Final and Summary Reports

    Wolfe, Robert; Fischer, Victor (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2003)
    This report presents alternative methodologies for identifying rural and non-rural areas for federal subsistence management in Alaska. It is the final report for the project, Rural/Non-Rural Determinations for Federal Subsistence Management in Alaska (Contract No. 701811CO58), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Alaska Region. The project was a joint research effort of the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at the University of Alaska, Anchorage, and Robert J. Wolfe and Associates. The report develops two alternative methodologies for distinguishing rural and non-rural populations in Alaska for federal subsistence management. The methodologies use measures drawn from the federal decennial census and the State of Alaska’s harvest records, among other relevant data sources. An overriding goal of the project was to use a minimal number of criteria that clearly, effectively, and defensibly distinguish between rural and non-rural populations. The two methodologies are tested on a selection of Alaska communities.
  • Change, Challenges, and Opportunities for Wild Fisheries

    Knapp, Gunnar (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2003)
    The global seafood industry is in a period of rapid and profound change which is affecting every part of the industry. The key causes of change are the growth of aquaculture and globalization of the world economy. These changes are leading to increased pressure throughout the seafood industry to respond to market demands and increase efficiency. Wild fisheries face significant inherent challenges in competing with aquaculture in an increasingly globalized economy. Aquaculture has far-reaching effects on markets for wild fisheries. Many of these effects are negative, but some are positive. Presented to Conference on Marine Aquaculture: Effects on the West Coast and Alaska Fishing Industry
  • Capstone Phase I Interim Safety Study, 2000/2001

    Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2002
    The FAA Alaska Region’s Capstone program is a joint initiative with industry to improve aviation safety and efficiency in Alaska, by using new tools and technology to provide infrastructure and services. The first phase of Capstone is in southwest Alaska, primarily in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta). This technology is most likely to help prevent mid-air collisions and controlled-flight-into- terrain (CFIT) accidents, which make up only a small part of the small-plane accidents in southwest Alaska but are the most likely to cause deaths. Aside from helping prevent accidents, the technology is designed to make it easier for pilots to fly—by making it easier to navigate, by providing more current weather information, and by making instrument landings possible when weather deteriorates. To learn the benefits and limitations of these new tools and technologies, the Capstone program contracted with the University of Alaska Anchorage’s Institute of Social and Economic Research and the Aviation Technology Division to evaluate aviation safety changes in the Capstone area. This Capstone Interim Safety Report describes those changes through the end of 2001.
  • Alaska's Construction Spending Forecast: 2007

    Killorin, Mary; Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 2007)
    Uncertainty in the forecast for 2007 comes from several sources. The decline in the crude oil price in recent months may cause some firms working in the oil patch to re-evaluate their capital budget decisions and slow their rate of investment in exploration and development. All sectors of the industry are continuing to experience rapid increases in construction material costs that will undoubtedly cause some projects to be canceled or postponed, as has been the case in the last several years.

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