Now showing items 21-40 of 766

    • Population, Employment, and Income Projections for Alaska Census Areas

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1998)
      These projections have been prepared to accompany the statewide and regional projections prepared by ISER in March 1997 for the Alaska Department of Transportation. Those projections appeared in a report entitled Alaska's Economy and Population, 1959-2020. This document contains tabulated data with very little interpretive or contextual information. Please see the aforementioned report for these details.
    • Permanent Fund Policy Questions and Informal Review of Proposals for Change

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1997)
      The growing importance of the Permanent Fund in the fiscal, economic, political and social life of the state requires that we periodically review how it is working, not necessarily to change it, but to ensure that it is continuing to do what is best for Alaska. This paper reviews recent proposals for changes in Permanent Fund policies using a series of questions that each stakeholder should consider. The answers to these questions should help to evaluate those proposals and stimulate thought about the role of the Permanent Fund in Alaska's future. Prepared for Principles and Interests: The Permanent Fund and Alaska's Future, a conference sponsored by the Alaska Humanities Forum.
    • Northstar Oil Field: Economic Impact Analysis

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1998)
      This analysis explores the economic impacts associated with the development of the Northstar oil field on Alaska's North Slope. It is based on the most current information about the project and updates an earlier study by the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) entitled The Northstar Project:Economic Impacts, published in April 1996. The analysis is based in large part on information provided to ISER by British Petroleum Exploration (Alaska), Inc. Since the project is under continuous review and subject to regulatory and judicial delays of uncertain length the parameters of the project are subject to change. However the general description of the economic effects of the project are unlikely to change dramatically as evidenced by the general agreement regarding project economics in this analysis and the prior study. The general methodology of this analysis is similar to that outlined in the prior ISER study entitled Marginal Oil Field Development: The Economic Impact, published in June 1995.
    • Marginal Oil Field Development: The Economic Impact

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1995)
      The purpose of this study is to provide a framework for analysis of the economic effect of new, small marginal oil fields which may be typical of new petroleum industry activity in Alaska. The analysis is generic and hopefully will lead to more detailed and specific studies where appropriate. The study examines a hypothetical marginal oil field on the North Slope with anticipated recoverable reserves of 100 million barrels of oil. This document was developed for presentation to the State of Alaska Oil and Gas Policy Council.
    • Kodiak: Characteristics of the Support Sector Economy

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1998)
      We compare the support sector of the Kodiak economy to other similarly sized markets in Alaska using employment and sales receipt information available from the state and federal governments. The employment analysis suggests that Kodiak may be underserved, particularly in certain service sectors. In contrast the sales receipt information suggests that the support sector of the Kodiak economy is comparable with similarly sized markets in Alaska. This analysis uses Central Place Theory to understand why the number and variety of businesses varies among communities. In this study we compare the trade and service activities in different Alaska communities using a variety of measures of both activity levels and market size.
    • Ketchikan Public Utilities: Electric Load Growth Study

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1998)
      Ketchikan Public Utility (KPU) asked the Institute of Social and Economic Research to project electricity sales and generation requirements in Ketchikan in the coming years. Rather than one set of projections we have estimated a range of likely future growth, given different assumptions about important factors influencing the economy and electricity use. Throughout that range of likely growth - the LOW, BASE, and HIGH cases - we project that electricity generation by KPU will temporarily drop but subsequently begin growing again, although at a slower rate than in the past.
    • ISER Alaska Input-Output Model

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1998)
      The primary purposes of the ISER Alaska input-output model are to measure the economic impact and economic importance of selected activities on the Alaska economy and to measure the economic impact of changes in the level of these activities. A related purpose is to study the structure of the Alaska economy. The input-output model can be used to conduct both economic impact analysis and economic significance analysis. For example, the model could be used to estimate the economic importance of a new ski resort in South Central Alaska. The change in final demand represented by the new resort would determine its economic impact on the region. The change in final demand would come primarily from non-resident visitors who would be attracted to Alaska to use the new resort. This working paper outlines various aspects of the model.
    • Implications of Oil Supply Uncertainty on a Small Oil-Producing Regional Economy

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1994)
      The state of Alaska has an economic and fiscal structure that is unique among the states. The petroleum industry, including exploration and development, production, transportation, and refining, accounts for nearly half of gross state product (the state equivalent of gross domestic product). In theory it is a simple matter to devise a rule that has the dual effects of neutralizing cycles in economic activity associated with the life cycle of petroleum exploitation and maximizing the benefits to residents from the expenditure of the petroleum wealth. Of the many complicating factors that make it difficult to devise and apply such a rule is the uncertainty regarding the size of the endowment, which is also one of the most interesting. How much it is appropriate to spend today depends directly on the size of the endowment not yet collected. This paper reviews a model for answering the public policy question of when to spend, with a special focus on how uncertainty complicates the debate. It also looks at the process of developing a plan for implementing the model within the context of the Alaska political and fiscal structure. Presented at the Second OPEC/Alaska Energy Conference in Anchorage, Alaska on May 7, 1994.
    • How Are We Doing? Monitoring Alaska's Fiscal Condition

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1994)
      Alaska’s government has been down on its luck this year, with low oil prices, a big deficit, and legal disputes over the budget. Despite all that, Alaska still has substantial assets. The state’s share of Alaska oil reserves is worth—even at low oil prices—about $16 billion. The Permanent Fund has a balance of $13 billion and earned $1 billion last year. Pages 2 and 3 of this summary examine what is happening to the state’s assets—and why preserving and building them is so important. The foldout details the risks of relying exclusively on cash reserves. Page 4 provides a simple checklist for monitoring the state’s progress toward the long-term budget strategy called the Safe Landing.
    • Homer Fiscal Planning Model: Background Report

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1992)
      Homer is a first-class city of about 4,000 residents, located in the Kenai Peninsula Borough. The city provides a variety of local government services including police and fire protection, roads maintenance, and parks and recreation as well as a library, but excluding schools (provided by the Borough). These services and general government expenses are financed primarily through sales and property taxes and transfers from the state. City expenditures increased rapidly through most of the 1980s, interrupted only during the recession years of 1988 and 1989. An economic boom occurring at the end of the decade has now passed, and the ability of the city to fund services is being constrained both by the local economic base·and the budget problems facing state government. The 1992 Homer budget reflects a sharp reduction from the previous year, with departments planning layoffs and service cutbacks. Aggressive fiscal planning in future years will be required to minimize the negative effects of budget shortfalls in the coming years. This document provides information to assist the community in addressing this issue.
    • Hatcher Pass Ski Resort, Phase 1: Economic Significance

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1998)
      Hatcher Pass Ski Resort, Phase 1: Economic Significance
    • From Oil to Assets: Managing Alaska's New Wealth

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1998)
      Low oil prices always capture headlines in Alaska, because the state government has run mostly on oil revenues for 20 years. So the slide in oil prices this year has once again made us think Alaska is becoming poor, and we worry about more budget cuts and an economic downturn. But two big changes in recent years make Alaska’s current fiscal condition better than it might seem. Sustainable revenues (and spending) are higher than we estimated a few years ago. And with a growing share of revenues from asset earnings, the state has the chance to make its year-to-year revenue flow more stable. Still, despite this good news, problems remain. The state’s fiscal policy has been to divide general purpose revenues into two categories: oil revenues have mostly paid General Fund expenses, and Permanent Fund earnings have been used to pay dividends to Alaskans (as well as to inflation-proof and build the fund balance). Low oil prices gouged a hole in the General Fund budget in 1998, while a strong stock market boosted Permanent Fund earnings. In the following pages we discuss in more detail the good financial news for Alaska and how we estimate “sustainable” spending. We also look at the choices Alaska has for keeping its finances healthy in the long run.
    • Fiscal and Socio-economic Impact of Marginal Oil Field Development in Alaska: Does It Pay Its Own Way?

      Goldsmith, Scott (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1996)
      As oil industry interest turns toward Alaskan oil fields with higher unit costs of production and, consequently, lower state revenues per barrel, an important public policy question is whether these fields on state lands are able to "pay their own way." This is loosely defined to mean that the benefits to the state from the development of the publicly owned resource exceed the public costs associated with development. A related question is how much state tax and royalty policy can change in an attempt to stimulate marginal field development and still provide a net economic benefit to the state. This paper develops a methodology for analyzing the conditions under which an oil field development produces a net economic benefit to the state. The model calculates the public sector costs associated with field development and compares them to the public revenues generated by the oil production from the field. The methodology demonstrates that whether a project produces net economic benefits depends not only upon the characteristics of the economy, the characteristics of the oil field, and the existing or anticipated fiscal regime but also on the benefits and costs chosen for inclusion in the analysis. In particular, the question of which revenues and which costs to attribute to the development is an important determinant of the result. The paper presents an analysis using a hypothetical marginal oil field in Alaska as an example. This example demonstrates that using the definitions of costs and benefits commonly associated with other natural resource activities in the state, marginal oil field development is likely to be able to "pay its own way" under a variety of fiscal regimes. This paper was presented at the International Conference on Petroleum Fiscal Regimes in Anchorage, Alaska on May 3, 1996 .
    • Reducing and Recycling Hazardous Materials in Alaska: A Summary of Selected Commercial Hazardous Waste Minimization Programs

      DeRoche, Patricia; Relyea, April; Siver, Darla; Larson, Eric (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1998)
      A wide variety of businesses, manufacturers, institutions, military posts, small businesses, and agencies in Alaska regularly handle hazardous wastes at their facilities. Many of these facilities have chosen voluntarily to provide information about their efforts to minimize hazardous wastes. The information they provide helps to encourage and to expand hazardous waste minimization efforts statewide. Furthermore, the information supports the state's efforts to work cooperatively with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to help businesses and agencies comply with federal hazardous waste guidelines.' The purpose of this report is to provide a summary of the information provided by facilities in Alaska. Our analysis is based on information reported by facilities in their "Waste Minimization/Pollution Prevention Supplements to Annual Hazardous Waste Reports" for the last three years. In addition we have conducted in-depth telephone interviews with selected oil and gas and govemment facilities to leam in more detail how they manage hazardous materials. This report expands in several ways on a study we completed last year. In this new study we've looked in more detail at the written responses of the pollution prevention reports; we've compiled data for more than one year; and we've analyzed the results of our telephone interviews with facilities to learn more about the unique characteristics of waste management. In Section II of this report, we describe the most common wastes handled by facilities based on their responses to the pollution prevention reports. InSection III, we describe the characteristics ofhazardous waste minimization assessments and plans based on responses in telephone interviews and the pollution prevention reports.
    • Working for Children: Kids Count Alaska

      Dinges, Norman; Frazier, Rosyland; Larson, Eric (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1996)
      Many Americans are worried about children in the U.S. growing up in poverty, in broken homes, and in dangerous neighborhoods. Policymakers and others with responsibilities for children's well-being need reliable information about conditions affecting children. Alaska in 1990 had relatively few babies born with low birth weights (which can mean developmental problems later), with little regional variation. The share of children in poverty statewide in 1990 was 11 percent, but regional shares varied from 6 to 24 percent. More than one in five Alaska families were headed by single parents in 1990, with the regional share as high as one in three. Overall, we hope the indicators compiled and disseminated by Kids Count Alaska will become an important tool that Alaskans in public and private life can use in developing policies and programs to help children and families.
    • Kids Count Alaska 1998-1999

      Dinges, Norman; Lampman, Claudia; Ragan, Shawna (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1999)
      How are Alaska’s children doing at the end of the twentieth century? Many are doing just fine—growing up healthy and safe. But others are not so fortunate. They live in poverty; they grow up without their fathers; they drop out of school; they have babies when they are children themselves. Too many—and even one is too many—die accidentally or intentionally. To help Alaska’s children, policymakers and others need reliable information about conditions affecting children. In the past decade or so, scientists have discovered that babies are born with the raw materials for brain development—about 100 million brain cells—but that most brain development happens after birth. What babies see, hear, touch, smell, and taste causes connections to form between brain cells. These connections are the wiring of the brain, allowing children to learn. Overall, scientists point out that we still have much to learn about the brain. But there is strong evidence about both the potential and the vulnerability of young children’s minds. To give children the best chance at life, adults must try to create safe, loving, interesting worlds for them.
    • Kids Count Alaska 1997

      Dinges, Norman; Lampman, Claudia; Garret, Ann; Atlis, Mera; Efimova, Olga; Hill, Alexandra; Minton, Barbara (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1997)
      From 1991 through 1995, nearly 55,400 babies were born in Alaska. The overwhelming majority (89 percent) were born to mothers at least 20 years old. But that still leaves more than 6,000 babies born to teenage mothers during the first half of the 1990s. And more than a third of those babies were born to mothers under 18 years old. Teenage mothers and their children face economic disadvantages (see Births to Teens indicator), but they also face health risks. Half the youngest mothers (15 and under) and nearly four in ten older teenagers get inadequate prenatal care. Even among mothers over 20, one-quarter don’t get adequate prenatal care.About 68 percent of women who had babies in Alaska from 1991 through 1995 were White, 23 percent were Native, 4.5 percent were Black, and 4.5 percent were Asian. One quarter of mothers of all races in Alaska get inadequate prenatal care, but the share is considerably higher among Alaska Native mothers—four in ten.
    • Violent Death in Alaska: Who Is Most Likely To Die?

      Berman, Matthew; Leask, Linda (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1994)
      Alaskans die by accident and commit suicide far more often than the national averages. They die in homicides at near the national rate. But when you look beyond the averages, it’s plain that some Alaskans are at much higher risk than others. This Review describes how rates of violent death—by which we mean deaths from accidents, suicides, and homicides—vary among Alaskans by race, sex, age, marital status, and place of residence. Differences in age and other factors don’t explain all the variation, but they give us a start in better understanding why violent death strikes some groups and places much more than others. The detailed analysis that follows is based on a computer file—provided by the Alaska Bureau of Vital Statistics—of death certificates of Alaskans who died between 1980 and 1990. This file includes recently revised statistics analyzed here for the first time. We calculated average death rates for that 11-year period, allowing us to see trends and to feel confident that rates for small towns don’t just reflect unusual circumstances in a single year.
    • On the Eve of IFQs: Fishing for Alaska's Halibut and Sablefish

      Berman, Matthew; Leask, Linda (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1994)
      This year, anyone with a boat, longline gear, and a $50 permit could try for halibut in Alaska’s commercial fisheries. But that open access will likely end in 1995, when the federal government introduces Individual Fishing Quotas (IFQs). Quotas—shares of the catch—will be issued just to those who owned or leased vessels that fished for halibut between 1988 and 1990. An IFQ system for sablefish (black cod) under federal management will start at the same time. The IFQ plan is not popular with the men and women who fish for halibut: 68 percent of captains (permit holders) believe IFQs will unfairly allocate halibut, even though 78 percent agree they will make fishing safer. But the IFQ system could also cause big changes in wealth, income, and jobs in Alaska’s coastal communities, which rely heavily on fishing. ISER is studying the potential effects of IFQs, especially on small coastal towns, under a Saltonstall-Kennedy grant. As a first step we surveyed captains (most of whom were also owners) of vessels with longline gear. This publication reports our survey findings.
    • School Costs and the Foundation Program

      Berman, Matthew; Larson, Eric (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska., 1991)
      Alaska's public school system today is a much different and costlier system than it was 20 years ago. This summary provides an overview of an examination undertaken by ISER on behalf of the Alaska Legislature. The aim of this investigation was to assess how the state's Public School Foundation Program could be more equitable for taxpayers and school districts. We studied changes in the major categories of school operating costs over the past two decades. Those costs recur year after year and account for most of total school district spending. They include costs of instruction and pupil support (libraries for instance); general support (administrative functions); and operations and maintenance of school buildings. We did not analyze capital costs, which normally make up a small part of total school costs and are different each year. This summary is based on "Education Equity and Taxpayer Equity: A Reveiw of the Alska Public School Foundation Funding Program" by Matthew Berman and Eric Larson.