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Equitable Compensation to Attract and Retain Qualified Teachers in High-Need Alaska Public SchoolsMeasuring the appropriate level of teacher compensation for different working conditions requires overcoming a number of empirical challenges, including defining and measuring differences in qualifications, effects of non-wage compensation, financial constraints, and lack of market clearing. We address those challenges in a study of teacher compensation in Alaska’s 462 public schools in 53 districts. Each of our three linked empirical specifications produces a set of different compensation adjustments needed to offset differences in working conditions across schools and communities. However, an overall pattern is clear: if districts wish to attract and retain teachers of similar qualifications across all schools, schools serving mainly racially minoritized and low-income populations will need to pay substantially more than they currently do. Estimated required compensation adjustments are quite large in some cases, illustrating the need to address working conditions and other factors that affect teachers’ choices to accept and stay in jobs at high-need schools.
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A rising tide that lifts all boats: Long-term effects of the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend on povertyAlthough not designed as a social program to redistribute income, the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD) has been reducing poverty by providing equal annual payments to nearly all state residents for over 40 years. We examine direct effects of the PFD on Alaska poverty rates since 1990, using US Census and American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample records to adjust for under-reporting of children's PFD income in official statistics. We estimate that the PFD reduced the number of Alaskans with incomes below the US poverty threshold by 20%–40%. We measure only a small effect on income distribution: a 0.02 reduction in the Gini coefficient. The effect of the PFD has been even larger for vulnerable populations. The PFD has reduced poverty rates of rural Indigenous Alaskans from 28% to less than 22%, and has played an important role in alleviating poverty among seniors and children. Aside from the special case of 2020, up to 50% more Alaska children—15% instead of 10%—would be living in poor families without PFD income. The poverty-ameliorating effects of the PFD have lessened somewhat since 2000, as dividend amounts adjusted for inflation have been declining.
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Long-term effects of group rights to fisheries: Evaluating the Western Alaska Community Development Quota programRestricting access to fisheries and other common property resources through creation of individual transferable rights has been documented to create wealth and promote conservation, but has also reduced employment and increased inequality in fishing communities. Creating group rights instead of individual rights has been suggested as an alternative strategy that could realize the benefits with diminished social cost; however, little independent evaluation of actual implementations of group rights to fisheries has occurred. The Western Alaska Community Development Quota (CDQ) program represents an example of allocation of group fishery rights to six not-for-profit organizations representing 65 small, largely Indigenous coastal communities. Using a unique data set of individual and household survey records spanning more than 25 years, we applied a difference-in-differences approach to measure changes in a variety of social and economic indicators, including Indigenous language use and educational attainment, employment, earnings, income, and poverty status, while controlling for demographic and general economic changes over the years. We found significant differences in outcomes for individuals and households in CDQ-participating communities from those residing in nearby communities ineligible for participation. Differences were especially pronounced for earnings and income. Results suggest that group rights can provide significant social benefits. The relatively small community populations provides insufficient power to determine statistically whether the benefits of the CDQ program have been increasing or diminishing over the years, or whether some communities have benefited more than others.
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Avoid getting burned: lessons from the McKinley wildfire in rural Alaska, USACSIRO Publishing, 2024-10-25Background Climate change and continued development in the wildland–urban interface (WUI) have increased risks to property and infrastructure from destructive wildfires. Aims A better understanding of the factors associated with building survival will promote resilience of WUI communities. Methods We studied factors associated with the likelihood that a building burned during the 2019 McKinley fire in the Alaska boreal forest, USA. We examined the potential influence of both ecological or socio-economic factors on building loss. Key results The probability of a building burning was significantly associated (P < 0.001) with a building burning nearby (within 30 m). Having less flammable deciduous cover nearby (within 100 m) improved survival. Buildings with lower value on larger parcels were more likely to burn, as were buildings with larger perimeters. Other important factors associated with burning included the number of buildings both nearby (within 30 m) and within the property parcel boundary. Conclusions Our results suggest that social and ecological factors contribute to building survival, indicating that a comprehensive social-ecological approach would provide the most effective support to WUI communities with wildfire risks. Implications Implications A comprehensive approach that integrates social, economic, and ecological factors is important in understanding building loss in WUI wildfires.
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Mapping the wildfire threat to boreal communitiesConsiderable interest and effort in identifying significant wildfire risk is drawn from the catastrophic impact of increasingly large and destructive wildfires on people, their health and safety, and the values and developments that support them. Improved methods include updated efforts to represent hazard and exposure across landscapes and within communities. The tools and techniques applied and evaluated here are collectively called Wildfire Exposure Assessment, a process developed and published by Jennifer L. Beverly (University of Alberta) and others. The simplicity and speed of the Exposure Assessment method make it an important prospect for communities planning for the protection of their citizenry and the values that support them. It makes few assumptions about factors difficult to assert and quantify over planning time horizons. Applied here specifically for communities in the Boreal biome, its utility is evaluated for three communities: Anchorage and Fairbanks in Alaska, and Whitehorse in the Yukon Territory. Further, it has been applied to all lands for both Alaska and the Yukon Territory based on vegetation classification from 2014. To this day, all spatial depictions of wildfire hazard begin as vegetation maps. The NASA Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE), among its many environmental assessments, produced a consistent, historical catalog of vegetation and land cover classifications over the life of the LANDSAT period of record, dating to 1984. These provided a consistent and useful set of products for use in establishing the spatial distribution of wildfire hazards and the utility these datasets could provide for the three boreal communities considered.
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Global gateways as telecoupled human and natural systems: The emerging case of the Bering StraitNumerous narrow marine passages around the world serve as essential gateways for the transportation of goods, the movement of people, and the migration of fish and wildlife. These global gateways facilitate human–nature interactions across distant regions. The socioeconomic and environmental interactions among distant coupled human and natural systems affect the sustainability of global gateways in complex ways. However, the assessment and analysis of global gateways are scattered and fragmented. To fill this knowledge gap, we frame global gateways as telecoupled human and natural systems using an emerging global gateway, the Bering Strait, as a demonstration. We examine how three telecoupling processes (tourism, vessel traffic, and natural resource development) impact and are impacted by the coupled human and natural system of the Bering Strait Region. Given that global gateways share many similarities, our analysis of the Bering Strait Region provides a foundation for the assessment of other telecoupled global gateways.
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Increasing multi-hazard climate risk and financial and health impacts on northern homeownersCurrently, more than half of the world’s human population lives in urban areas, which are increasingly affected by climate hazards. Little is known about how multi-hazard environments affect people, especially those living in urban areas in northern latitudes. This study surveyed homeowners in Anchorage and Fairbanks, USA, Alaska’s largest urban centers, to measure individual risk perceptions, mitigation response, and damages related to wildfire, surface ice hazards, and permafrost thaw. Up to one third of residents reported being affected by all three hazards, with surface ice hazards being the most widely distributed, related to an estimated $25 million in annual damages. Behavioral risk response, policy recommendations for rapidly changing urban environments, and the challenges to local governments in mitigation efforts are discussed.
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Flight plan for the future: floatplane pilots and researchers team up to predict invasive species dispersal in AlaskaAircraft can transport aquatic invasive species (AIS) from urban sources to remote waterbodies, yet little is known about this long-distance pathway. In North America and especially Alaska, aircraft with landing gear for water called floatplanes are used for recreation access to remote, often road-less wilderness destinations. Human-mediated dispersal of AIS is particularly concerning for the conservation of pristine wildlands, yet resource managers are often challenged by limited monitoring and response capacity given the vast areas they manage. We collected pathway data through a survey with floatplane pilots and used a Bayesian hierarchical model to inform early detection in a data-limited situation. The study was motivated by Alaska’s first known AIS, Elodea spp. (Elodea) and its floatplane-related dispersal. For 682 identified floatplane destinations, a Bayesian hierarchical model predicts the chance of flights originating from AIS source locations in freshwater and estimates the expected number of flights from these sources. Model predictions show the potential for broad spread across remote regions currently not known to have Elodea and informed monitoring and early detection efforts. Our result underlines the small window of opportunity for Arctic conservation strategies targeting an AIS free Arctic. We recommend management that focuses on long-distance connectivity, keeping urban sources free of AIS. We discuss applicability of the approach for other data-limited situations supporting data-informed AIS management responses.
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Spatial distribution of wildfire threat in the far north: exposure assessment in boreal communitiesIncreased wildfire activity has raised concerns among communities about how to assess and prepare for this threat. There is a need for wildfire hazard assessment approaches that capture local variability to inform decisions, produce results understood by the public, and are updatable in a timely manner. We modified an existing approach to assess decadal wildfire hazards based primarily on ember dispersal and wildfire proximity, referencing landscape changes from 1984 through 2014. Our modifications created a categorical flammability hazard scheme, rather than dichotomous, and integrated wildfire exposure results across spatial scales. We used remote sensed land cover from four historical decadal points to create flammability hazard and wildfire exposure maps for three arctic communities (Anchorage and Fairbanks, Alaska and Whitehorse, Yukon). Within the Fairbanks study area, we compared 2014 flammability hazard, wildfire exposure, and FlamMap burn probabilities among burned (2014–2023) and unburned areas. Unlike burn probabilities, there were significantly higher in exposure values among burned and unburned locations (Wilcoxon; p < 0.001) and exposure rose as flammability hazard classes increased (Kruskal–Wallis; p < 0.001). Very high flammability hazard class supported 75% of burned areas and burns tended to occur in areas with 60% exposure or greater. Areas with high exposure values are more prone to burn and thus desirable for mitigation actions. By working with wildfire practitioners and communities, we created a tool that rapidly assesses wildfire hazards and is easily modified to help identify and prioritize mitigation activities.
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Advancing Wildfire Preparedness and Planning in Anchorage Wildfire Exposure and Egress StudyAdvancing Wildfire Preparedness and Planning takes an in-depth look at the dynamic factors that are impacting wildfire occurrence for the most populated geographic area in the 49th State of Alaska, the Municipality of Anchorage (MOA). The length and severity of recent fire seasons pose a threat to those who have chosen a niche in the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) area to call “home.” This report is a “call to action” in many ways, delving into some of the swings in weather patterns caused by climatic change. These subtle changes are at the root of the evolving wildfire danger and its effect on the 291,247 residents (2020 census) of the MOA.
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A framework for assessing food-energy-water security: A FEW case studies from rural AlaskaFood, energy, and water (FEW) are basic needs for well-being and quality of life. Assessing FEW security allows residents, communities, and policy makers to make informed decisions about how to sustain and improve well-being. We have developed a FEW security assessment framework that examines four components of security: availability, access, quality, and preference. With the help of local community members, we interviewed 114 households in three rural Alaska communities to assess FEW security, drivers and outcomes of FEW security, and potential interactions among FEW components and with renewable energy (RE) developments. While FEW security was high overall, preference and quality, especially for food, was lower. Food harvested from the local environment (i.e. subsistence) was necessary to include in security assessments given that 24% of participants reported insecurity when asked about contemporary sources (i.e. purchased) versus 5% reporting insecurity for subsistence food sources (i.e., harvested). The major influences on FEW security tended to originate from outside the community, including factors such as transportation, income, fuel prices, and weather. One internal factor, health, was both a driver and an outcome of FEW security. Satisfaction with RE varied (42%–68%) with dissatisfaction due to unreliability, uncertainty of the economic benefit, desire for other types of RE, or wanting more RE (n = 6). Communication about RE projects was key to managing expectations, promoting knowledge, and identifying benefits for residents. Participants did not identify linkages between RE and FEW security. Our assessment tool can be used by communities and policy makers to contextualize FEW security into more insightful and specific components, allowing for identification of attainable actions to improve FEW security and thus individual and community well-being.
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From Metrics to Action: A Framework for Identifying Limiting Factors, Key Causes, and Possible Solutions in Food-Energy-Water SecurityFood, energy, and water (FEW) security require adequate quantities and forms of each resource, conditions that are threatened by climate change and other factors. Assessing FEW security is important, and needs to be understood in the context of multiple factors. Existing frameworks make it hard to disentangle the contributors to FEW insecurity and to determine where best to expend efforts on short- and long-term solutions. We identified four consistent components of FEW security (availability, access, preference, quality). This framework provides detailed and nuanced insights into factors that limit or bolster security in each of the three sectors. The integrated framework identifies proximate and ultimate underlying causes of deficiencies in each security component providing opportunities to identify short- and long-term solutions.
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Lessons learned from the McKinely WildfireLessons on preparedness, evacuation, and rebuilding after wildfire.
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Applying the food–energy–water nexus concept at the local scaleThe food–energy–water (FEW) nexus describes interactions among domains that yield gains or trade-offs when analysed together rather than independently. In a project about renewable energy in rural Alaska communities, we applied this concept to examine the implications for sustainability and resilience. The FEW nexus provided a useful framework for identifying the cross-domain benefits of renewable energy, including gains in FEW security. However, other factors such as transportation and governance also play a major role in determining FEW security outcomes in rural Alaska. Here, we show the implications of our findings for theory and practice. The precise configurations of and relationships among FEW nexus components vary by place and time, and the range of factors involved further complicates the ability to develop a functional, systematic FEW model. Instead, we suggest how the FEW nexus may be applied conceptually to identify and understand cross-domain interactions that contribute to long-term sustainability and resilience.
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Rural Alaska Water Treatment and Distribution Systems Incur High Energy Costs: Identifying Energy Drivers Using Panel Data Analysis for 78 CommunitiesThe energy consumption for water treatment and distribution in rural Alaska communities that represent one of the coldest and most isolated regions in the US has been unexplored. Using energy audits data from Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium (ANTHC), we investigate the annual energy consumption patterns for water treatment and distribution in 78 rural Alaska communities (average population < 500 people) along with seasonal, regional, and population impacts, and water treatment/distribution system types. Regional trends of per capita annual energy consumption are as follows: Interior > Northern > Southwest > Gulf coast > Southeast regions of Alaska. Our results indicate that the per capita energy consumption is highest during the winter and lowest during the summer. Generally, the per capita energy consumption decreases with an increasing population. The variation of per capita energy consumption based on water distribution types shows that piped circulating systems consume the most energy, followed by washeteria, piped pressure, and closed haul. At the water treatment plant, space heating and electrical motors have the highest per capita energy consumption, followed by domestic hot water, tank heating, and lighting. The findings in this work suggest that per capita energy consumption (kWh/p) for water treatment and distribution in rural Alaska is about 12–26 times higher than the national average and about two orders of magnitude higher economic costs for the same. Overall, this work sheds light on energy use for water treatment and distribution in rural Alaska and establishes a baseline that would be useful for the rural Alaska communities’ adaptation to climate change efforts, specifically in planning for and designing new water systems or updating existing systems.
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Emerging Themes and Future Directions of Multi-Sector Nexus Research and ImplementationWater, energy, and food are all essential components of human societies. Collectively, their respective resource systems are interconnected in what is called the “nexus”. There is growing consensus that a holistic understanding of the interdependencies and trade-offs between these sectors and other related systems is critical to solving many of the global challenges they present. While nexus research has grown exponentially since 2011, there is no unified, overarching approach, and the implementation of concepts remains hampered by the lack of clear case studies. Here, we present the results of a collaborative thought exercise involving 75 scientists and summarize them into 10 key recommendations covering: the most critical nexus issues of today, emerging themes, and where future efforts should be directed. We conclude that a nexus community of practice to promote open communication among researchers, to maintain and share standardized datasets, and to develop applied case studies will facilitate transparent comparisons of models and encourage the adoption of nexus approaches in practice.
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Cancer Education for High School Students in the Northwest Arctic Increases Knowledge and Inspires Intent to Share Information and Reduce Cancer RiskCulturally appropriate cancer education is an opportunity to reduce health inequities in cancer. This manuscript describes the outcomes of piloting cancer education for youth in the Northwest Arctic region of Alaska. The project began due to community concerns, was focused through sharing circles conducted in the region, and was guided by a community advisory board. The project was based on the principles of Community Based Participatory Action Research (CBPAR), honored Indigenous Ways of Knowing, and was grounded in Empowerment Theory. In response to community requests, eleven cancer education lessons were developed for young people in the Northwest Arctic. Several lessons were piloted in spring 2022. Each participant was invited to complete a pre-lesson and a post-lesson survey. A total of 113 surveys were completed from five different lessons: 66 pre-lesson surveys and 47 post-lesson surveys. Respondents' mean cancer knowledge scores were significantly higher after the Cancer Basics lesson. On 98% of post-lesson surveys, respondents said they planned to share cancer education messages such as staying tobacco-free and increasing physical activity with others, including their family, friends, and community members. On 93% of the post-lesson surveys, respondents indicated they planned to make changes to reduce their own personal cancer risk, including by staying tobacco-free, eating healthier, and increasing physical activity. "Cancer is serious, and something we should start talking about".
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Formerly used defense sites on Unalaska Island, Alaska: Mapping a legacy of environmental pollutionUnalaska Island, Alaska, served as a US military base during World War II. The military installed bases on Unalaska and nearby islands, many of which were built adjacent to Unangan communities. The military used toxic compounds in its operations and left a legacy of pollution that may pose health risks to residents and local wildlife. The goals of this study were to identify hotspots of contamination remaining at Unalaska formerly used defense (FUD) sites, evaluate the risk posed by arsenic, and examine “no US Department of Defense action indicated” (NDAI) status determinations for FUD sites near communities. We compiled soil chemistry data from remediation reports prepared by the US Army Corps of Engineers at 18 FUD sites on and near Unalaska. Nine had past and/or active remediation projects and on-site sampling data. Eight sites did not have sampling data and were characterized as NDAI. One site was listed as closed. For the nine sites with sampling data, we compiled data for 22 contaminants of concern (COC) and compared concentrations to soil cleanup levels for human health (18 AAC 75.341). We mapped contaminant concentrations exceeding these levels to identify hotspots of contamination. We found that concentrations of some of the 22 COC exceeded Alaska cleanup levels despite remediation efforts, including diesel range organics, arsenic, and lead. The highest COC concentrations were at the FUD site adjacent to the City of Unalaska. A quantitative risk assessment for arsenic found that the risk of exposure through drinking water is low. We highlight concerns with NDAI designations and current remedial practices at remote FUD sites located adjacent to communities. Our data suggest the need for further remediation and monitoring efforts on Unalaska for certain contaminants and research to examine potential threats to human and animal health associated with these sites.
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Predicting the Unpredictable: Predicting Landcover in Boreal Alaska and the Yukon Including Succession and Wildfire Potentialhe boreal forest of northwestern North America covers an extensive area, contains vast amounts of carbon in its vegetation and soil, and is characterized by extensive wildfires. Catastrophic crown fires in these forests are fueled predominantly by only two evergreen needle-leaf tree species, black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.). Identifying where these flammable species grow through time in the landscape is critical for understanding wildfire risk, damages, and human exposure. Because medium resolution landcover data that include species detail are lacking, we developed a compound modeling approach that enabled us to refine the available evergreen forest category into highly flammable species and less flammable species. We then expanded our refined landcover at decadal time steps from 1984 to 2014. With the aid of an existing burn model, FlamMap, and simple succession rules, we were able to predict future landcover at decadal steps until 2054. Our resulting land covers provide important information to communities in our study area on current and future wildfire risk and vegetation changes and could be developed in a similar fashion for other areas.
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Rural–urban migration of Alaska Indigenous peoples: changing patterns and driversMigration from rural areas to urban population centers has long been associated with modernization; a pattern one might expect to accelerate as advancing climate change degrades rural land-based livelihoods. Does rural–urban migration of arctic Indigenous peoples follow a similar pattern? Has depopulation of rural arctic areas accelerated as climate-driven environmental change has intensified in the rapidly warming arctic? What are the main drivers of mobility, both historically and more recently? We address these questions through a review and synthesis of empirical studies of rural–urban migration of arctic Indigenous peoples using individual records over the past four decades, along with analysis of new data informed by those previous studies. The use of microdata allows us to incorporate variation in individual situations and choices as well as community characteristics that vary across space and time, permitting us to make inferences about factors associated with decisions to move. The evidence shows that rural–urban migration patterns appear largely to have persisted over the decades, but some drivers have changed. Living costs appear to have replaced livelihood opportunities as the dominant driver since 2000. Other changes in decisions to move are complex, and require additional research to understand.
