Fiscal Impacts of Alternative Land Use Scenarios for the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Alaska

Abstract

This paper presents the projected fiscal impacts on Alaska’s Matanuska-Susitna Borough (MSB) and its taxpayers, through year 2050, of six alternative land use and population scenarios. The analysis is focused on population growth and education spending, due to the overwhelming importance of school expenditures in overall borough finances. The Mat-Su Borough is Alaska’s fastest growing borough. Between 2000 and 2012, MSB population grew by 3.8% per year, from about 60,000 to about 94,000. Also, real1 total school expenditures per student (both operating plus capital) increased by 1.6% per year between 2003 and 2012. The State of Alaska currently pays 71% of these total education costs.2 With Alaska oil production decreasing, state education spending per student is likely to decline. Population growth could therefore be costly to MSB residents if school and other costs increase faster than available financial resources.