Four Scenarios for Alaska's Future

Abstract

The Alaska economy is growing as high commodity prices (for oil and gold in particular) drive the private sector and oil revenue surpluses fuel the state budget. But as oil production continues to decline; the prospect for commercialization of North Slope gas in the near term fades; access to petroleum resources on federal lands remains stalled; and non-petroleum resource development moves forward only slowly, many Alaskans are concerned with what path the Alaska economy will take in the next decades. We could go in four possible directions. Here we offer a short description of each scenario— general enough to let each person fill in the blanks. Our objective is not to predict but rather to stimulate thought and discussion about what Alaskans can and should do to move the economy along the preferred path. Here’s a summary of the four potential paths. A more detailed description follows.