Economic and Demographic Projections for Alaska and Greater Anchorage 2010–2035

Abstract

This report describes three economic, demographic, and fiscal projections for the state of Alaska and the Greater Anchorage region consisting of the Municipality of Anchorage and the Matanuska- Susitna Borough. These projections have been prepared by the Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER) of the University of Alaska Anchorage as part of the development of the Seward Highway to Glenn Highway Connection (H2H) Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for the Department of Transportation and Facilities. These projections will be used to estimate future travel demand within the study area. The assumptions driving the three projections were developed by ISER in consultation with the study team and planners and economic development staff from Anchorage and Mat-Su. The BASE CASE projection is driven by a set of assumptions that together represent a likely future scenario for employment and population growth. The HIGH and LOW CASES are each driven by a set of assumptions that together represent the range of possible outcomes around the likely BASE CASE. The assumptions are based upon the best information available at the time that they were developed—the fall of 2009. The economic and demographic projections, contingent upon the assumptions for the different cases, were prepared using the MAP economic and demographic model developed by ISER. The main body of this report is a description of each of the three projection cases. This is followed by short sections comparing the three projections to one another and to an earlier projection prepared by ISER for KABATA (Knik Arm Bridge and Toll Authority) in 2005. There is also a brief description of the structure of the MAP model. A number of appendices contain detailed tables of model output as well as a detailed description of the assumptions for each of the three cases.