Modeling changes in the length of the agricultural growing season in Interior Alaska

Abstract

Food security is a growing global concern as population growth continues in a period of rapid climatic change. The amplification of climate change and dependence upon imported foods at high latitudes makes Alaskans especially vulnerable to both global and local changes. Although many climate impacts present challenges, rising air temperatures could provide economic opportunities for Alaskan agriculturalists by extending growing seasons. Future growing season length has previously been estimated, however these estimates did not explicitly account for the constraints of agricultural systems. This research explores the relationship between air temperature, soil temperature and growing season length in agricultural management systems in Interior Alaska to better understand how climate scenarios can be used to identify future opportunities. Air and soil temperature data were collected under four different crop systems and used in combination with historical observations to inform a model that projects usable growing degree-days in Interior Alaska to the end of the century. Increases of usable degree-days were projected to increase from 33-70% by 2100. The projected increases could increase success of currently marginally successful crops (e.g., canola, corn, and sunflowers). Such opportunities could lead to increased food security, but future planning will require culturally appropriate planning and institutional support.