Meta-Analysis on the Effects of Global Economic Growth on Birds in the Nations of the Three Poles

Abstract

Economic and population growth as well as global macroeconomic policies are contributing to increasing global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Climate change effects are more pronounced in cold regions such as the ‘Three Poles’ (the Arctic, the Antarctic and the Hindu Kush-Himalaya regions) than anywhere else. The Three Poles are rich in natural resources but the extraction of resources is degrading ecosystems and processes, and affecting species. In the Three Poles, many species depend on ice and snow habitats, but these species are competing with human activities for space and resources on a finite globe. Local and global pressures cause bird species populations to decline. In this study I investigated how bird populations are affected by economic growth and subsequent effects on the environment in the Three Poles regions. Data mining based on machine learning algorithms was used to perform the analyses. TreeNet (based on regression trees), included in the software Salford Predictive Modeler Builder® v.6.6 was used to develop the models. An additional Random Forests analysis (classification trees) was used to analyze the datasets. Two response variables were chosen based on bird distribution maps provided by BirdLife and the IUCN RedList categories, including those that have risk of extinction or are in the Least Concern category but with declining populations. Data from the WDI Data Catalog of The World Bank (World Development Indicators) were used as predictors. The results include a total of 24 models, classified by pole and type of country according to their direct (primary countries) or indirect (secondary countries) link to the Three Poles regions. A combind model was also run (primary and secondary countries). Models were evaluated according to the response curves and gains charts. Models confirm that global demand for, and consumtion of, resources is affecting the Three Poles. Food production, rural population, CO2 emissions, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and agricultural land were the top ranked predictors to explain the number of birds classified as threatened or with populations decreasing. This finding supports that the global demand for resources such as oil, gas and fish that were exploited from the Three Poles, added to global warming from anthropogenic causes are significantly affecting bird species populations. However, further research has to be carried out in order to obtain sound information on what the best management and governance is for a sustainable outlook for the Three Poles and beyond.