Projecting absence: a decade of US Arctic intelligence, policy, and perceptions of Russia

Abstract

The U.S. government engaged in Arctic security and politics at a low level throughout early 2000s, while the Russian government was quite active in it Arctic region during this timeframe. Using text, data and visual analysis tools, this research conducts content analysis, sentiment analysis and mapping on U.S. Arctic intelligence documents released through Wikileaks. It compares patterns found in the content of intelligence documents with content and sentiment patterns found in U.S. Arctic policy to correlate a shared perception of Russian Arctic engagement. Research findings indicate that the dialogue about Russian engagement in the Arctic in the early 2000s in both the intelligence community (IC) and policy-making communities attribute a low level of threat to U.S. national security with regard to Arctic issues. These findings may contribute to the lack of U.S. engagement in the Arctic leading up to the Crimean/Ukraine conflict.