Estimating movement with a spatially-explicit stock assessment model of eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma

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Miller, Sara Elizabeth
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http://hdl.handle.net/11122/6837
Abstract
The standard Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) stock assessment model has no spatial dimension. To advance the understanding of EBS walleye pollock movements and spatial structure on finer temporal and spatial scales, a spatially explicit migration model of EBS walleye pollock was developed. However, there are no estimates of movement rates for this population. Using standard sample size formulae in a Petersen-type experiment, we showed that only a moderate mark-recapture program [minimum number of tags for ages-1 + was 9,475 (all sectors included) and 20,924 (only catcher-vessel shoreside sector included)] is needed to estimate abundance. Given these sample size requirements determined for abundance estimation, the Darroch method was used to estimate movement parameters between two regions, the northwest (NW) and southeast (SE) EBS in a simple compartment model. Directed movement could be reasonably estimated with Monte Carlo simulation. To develop the EBS walleye pollock age-structured movement model, the standard stock assessment model was extended into a two-region (NW and SE EBS), two-season, age-specific movement model. Movement could be estimated from disaggregated data without mark-recapture information, but with low precision. However, the uncertainty indicates that a mark-recapture study is needed before such a model could be applied for management applications.
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Thesis (M.S.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2007
Table of Contents
General introduction -- Objectives -- References -- 1. Walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) biology and management -- Background -- References -- Figures -- 2. Statistical feasibility of estimating walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) movement between the northwest and southeast Eastern Bering Sea -- Abstract -- Introduction -- Methods -- Estimation of abundance -- Estimation of movement -- Recovery of tags by region -- Movement estimation -- Results -- Estimation of abundance -- Estimation of movement -- Recovery by tags by region -- Movement estimation -- Directed movement -- Random movement -- No movement -- Discussion -- Conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Figures -- Tables -- Appendices -- Appendices References -- 3. Estimation of age-specific migration in an age-structured population dynamics model -- Abstract -- Introduction -- Methods -- Data sources -- Age-specific movement model -- Movement -- Estimation -- Analyses -- Results -- Discussion -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Figures -- Tables -- Appendices -- Appendices references -- Summary and conclusions -- References.
Date
2007-05
Type
Thesis
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